Taking a look at the upcoming schedule and Jose Altuve’s hitting resurgence.
Through the end of May, the Astros were hovering within a few games of .500 in either direction. While the relatively slow start this year doesn’t compare to the dreadful beginning in 2024, this was a middling team up to roughly a month ago, buoyed by a strong run prevention approach but hampered by a lackluster lineup. Thankfully, the rest of the AL West wasn’t much better, and the schedule began to ease for Houston by late May.
Since May 22, the start of their four-game set against the Mariners in Houston, the Astros have posted an 18-7 record to propel themselves atop the division. Entering Thursday, they only trail the Tigers for the best record in the AL, with a 43-31 record. While it may seem less impressive than their turnaround last season when viewed through the lens of wins and losses, the way this team plays is arguably even more stunning. By that, I mean, who expected the lineup to hit better without Yordan Alvarez? Or the rotation to survive injuries to Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski, and Lance McCullers Jr.? How about the struggles of Christian Walker and Yainer Díaz?
There is a legitimate question about how long the Astros can rely upon 60% of the rotation occupied by Colton Gordon, Brandon Walter, and Ryan Gusto, with an occasional sixth starter thrown in the mix. The difficulty in the schedule will increase soon, though, with a stretch of nine games in thirteen days against the Phillies, Cubs, and Dodgers in the coming weeks. That stretch might be the litmus test for this current roster’s capabilities against three of the top teams in the game. Overall, the Astros’ strength of schedule (.500) for the rest of the season is .500, ranking 14th of the 30 Major League teams.
While the pitching staff deserves plenty of credit this season for the Astros’ success, it isn’t a coincidence that the lineup has started to pick up the pace. Going back to May 22 against the Mariners, only the Rays have posted a higher wRC+ (132) than Houston (123). In terms of runs scored, the Astros (122) trail just the Rays (152) and Dodgers (133). All without Alvarez, by the way. Baseball is strange sometimes.
It’s no secret that Altuve struggled at the plate for nearly a month, from the end of April through most of May, hitting .173/.262/.227 with only four extra-base hits and a 44 wRC+ across those games. This lack of production was a problem for him and the entire lineup. However, his fortunes began to change again with that four-game series against the Mariners. Much like the lineup’s improvement helping in the wins department, Altuve’s latest hot streak at the plate is a key reason why, with his 188 wRC+ and eight home runs leading the team since then.
While a more manageable schedule has benefitted the Astros, the team has become somewhat more balanced in its overall performance, featuring a lineup that isn’t a liability at present. Whenever Alvarez returns, he will make this lineup even better, at least on paper. The plans for the rotation probably center around making it through the next four to six weeks with little issue and hoping reinforcements arrive on time. Of course, most pitchers are on borrowed time nowadays, so who knows? Another injury or delayed rehab progress could force Dana Brown to acquire another starting pitcher external to the organization, much like Yusei Kikuchi last season. Time will tell, but the recent improvement inspires confidence moving forward.