So far this season, the Astros are around middle of the pack in terms of value (1.7 fWAR) from the catcher position. There is more involved in evaluating catchers than just their cumulative WAR, but it gives a snapshot of where they currently stand compared to their peers. For Yainer Díaz and Victor Caratini, the results can definitely be better, but they could also be worse.
This conversation is more suitable for the offseason, but I have always felt that 2025 could be an interesting season for Díaz’s long-term development. 2024 was his first season as the primary catcher, and it was a mixed bag of results across those 102 games when he caught. The overall hitting stats (116 wRC+, 16 home runs) were decent enough, although a drop in power was a bit disconcerting. But with an increased workload behind the plate, at a position that has the highest difficulty level in baseball, an offensive decline wasn’t a shock. It was almost expected, to some degree.
Thus far in 2025, though, Díaz’s performance, or lack thereof, is starting to invite some additional doubts, at least in my mind. While he has rebounded from a dreadful March and April at the plate (39 wRC+), he has only been slightly above league average since then (105 wRC+) with worsening defensive numbers. He has arguably been the least effective defensive catcher in baseball this season, with a -9 FRV (Fielding Run Value) ranking last among qualified backstops. No matter how you slice it between framing, throwing, and blocking, Díaz is at the bottom of the list.
For a catcher now in his second full season as the primary backstop, Díaz’s performance on these two fronts is certainly disappointing. The growth that was hoped for with a full season of experience has failed to materialize in quantifiable ways. With that said, the Astros do have one of the better pitching staffs in baseball, but we’re starting to enter unquantifiable territory when assigning too much credit — or blame — to a catcher for what their pitchers are doing. For example, the Astros allow an average of 1.04 stolen bases per game; only the Marlins allow more (1.26 stolen bases per game). Díaz, along with Victor Caratini, isn’t blameless for Houston’s stolen base woes as a defensive team, but it also doesn’t help when their pitchers are not keeping opposing runners in check.
I am curious to see what Dana Brown does in the offseason regarding the catcher position. Signing Caratini to a two-year, $12 million contract before the 2024 season was incredibly underrated at the time, but I wonder how much the Astros will prioritize him when his contract expires after this season. Caratini’s bat is undoubtedly valuable in his current role, but he could price himself out of Houston in the offseason, especially if they look to improve defensively. The development of Walker Janek in the minors also matters.
With Díaz under club control through 2028, and with him being only 27 in 2026, I can easily see this team giving him another year to figure it out as the primary catcher. But if his season trends continue at this rate, it would at least invite further debate into whether he should remain as the primary catcher for the long term—something to file away for now and revisit in the offseason.