The Lack of Power Still Lingers
The Astros are currently a league-average offense, with a 100 wRC+ through their first 47 games this season. That’s remarkable considering Yordan Alvarez has only 121 plate appearances of below-average production (79 wRC+) this season, in addition to the struggles from Christian Walker, Yainer Díaz, and Jose Altuve. Since the first of May, though, only seven teams have posted a higher wRC+ than Houston’s mark of 114. That’s progress, at least.
Run scoring, however, remains an issue at times. Since May 1, the Astros have scored 72 runs, ranking 16th in baseball. A top-ten wRC+ for multiple weeks is generally considered good. I think part of their run-scoring issue lies in how this lineup isn’t particularly brimming with power hitters at the moment. Wait, let me rephrase that: brimming with power hitters who aren’t either injured or struggling. Houston has only 41 home runs this season, tied with one and ahead of six others. The Rockies, for all of their struggles, have one more home run on the season (42) than the Astros. While the overall wRC+ is trending higher, this lineup will continue to have issues scoring runs at times until the power numbers also improve. A healthy Alvarez would possibly go a long way in remedying this problem.
Cam Smith Turning A Corner?
Going back to May 1, Cam Smith has started to turn a corner in his incredibly young professional career, hitting .306/.405/.389 with a 136 wRC+ in 42 plate appearances. Those numbers look even better if you zoom in to his last 26 plate appearances (.391/.462/.478 with a 177 wRC+). Small sample disclaimer applies here, but it is encouraging to see Smith’s season progress in this manner, considering his slump in the second half of April.
Smith’s swing decisions, in particular, have generally improved in the past few weeks. Although he still has a strikeout rate of 28.3% for the season, the recent trends among his swinging strike rates and his ability to draw walks have progressed in the right direction.
Any production they can gain from Smith this season without hindering his development is a positive outcome for this Houston lineup. One could argue that they need at least one more reliable bat, preferably a left-handed one, but Smith’s growth as a hitter could significantly enhance this lineup’s depth.
Jose Altuve’s Struggles
May has been a month to forget for Altuve.
March and April:
.274/.323/.402, 19.7% K% .315 BABIP, 106 wRC+ in 127 PA
May 1 through 19:
.164/.227/.213, 15.2% K% .196 BABIP, 27 wRC+ in 66 PA
There isn’t much good in Altuve’s hitting profile right now. All of his expected stats are in the toilet at the moment, with an xwOBA and xBA in the fourth percentile and an xSLG in the seventh percentile. Barrel rate, hard hit rate, you name it, there isn’t a lot to like.
Fortunately for Altuve, he has never been an expected stats darling in past seasons. Of course, he was also running a 49th percentile barrel rate in 2022 and 2023 and a 35th percentile rate last year. For context, his barrel rate this season is in the 16th percentile. While walks have been down in the past year and some months, Altuve, even with his reputation as a bit of a free swinger, isn’t striking out that much more. From a batted ball angle, though, the issue seems to lie in how many groundballs he is hitting.
More groundballs result from some issues at the plate, and there could be a couple of different reasons to explore. His bat speed, for example, has gradually declined since the bat tracking data, dating back to 2023, was released.
There is also positioning within the batter box that warrants further research—one of the new tools to utilize from Statcast. Opposing pitchers may have become aware of these developments themselves. For example, Altuve is experiencing a notable increase in sinkers thrown against him, with a usage rate of 27.4%. He only faced a sinker 18.4% of the time in 2024 and never higher than 24.8% back in 2011. That would explain, at least partially, an increase in groundballs. Altuve is also struggling to convert against cutters and four-seam fastballs, despite a decline in those usage rates. It’s worth noting that his whiff rate against both pitches has increased by at least 7%.
Altuve’s struggles warrant a deeper approach, but declining bat speed at least explains some of his fastball-related issues. If he doesn’t start improving in that one area soon, then his stats aren’t going to rebound anytime soon.