An apology to the Astro’s GM
In my opinion, the modern GM needs to come from an elite school (Sorry, Rice doesn’t count) and have a strong quant background. Dana Brown didn’t have that background, so I had a built in bias against him. However, Brown’s tenure as the Astros GM has been surprisingly successful. His ability to identify talent was his calling card, and he has used it effectively to help Houston maintain its status as a playoff roster.
Yes, the major league roster was stacked when Dana Brown took over after 2022; however, the farm system was barren and most fans and pundits had concerns that the Astros would have a hard time replacing lost talent. Bregman, Tucker, Valdez, and Altuve all had contracts expiring in the near future and it was obvious the Astros wouldn’t be able to replace all of them. Brown needed to make wise personnel decisions to keep the Astros in contention.
Brown’s first test was the 2023 draft. Brown spent his first round pick on Brice Matthews, who was not considered a first round pick by most analysts. It is too early to say for certain if Matthews was a good selection; however, the early returns are good. In his second full season in the minors, he is already at AAA and performing well and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him in the big leagues this August. If he continues to rake in AAA, it would not be surprising to see him starting at second base this October.
Dana Brown’s trade for Justin Verlander appeared to be heavily influenced by Jim Crane, and they gave up some good prospects, but the trade worked out well for the Astros anyway. Houston won the 2023 AL West on a tiebreaker and would go on to make game 7 of the ALCS. It is doubtful they would have done that without Verlander. How many hypothetical wins in 2027 are equivalent to what the Astros accomplished in 2023? Besides, Drew Gilbert isn’t exactly setting the world on fire in AAA and he is 24.
Probably the most impactful move of Brown’s tenure has been trading Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. At this point, if given the chance to trade Kyle Tucker for Cam Smith straight up, I think the Cubs wish they could have that one back. Throwing in Paredes and Wesneski makes the trade look like a robbery. The combined fWAR for Smith, Paredes, and Wesneski is actually slightly higher than Tucker’s. Considering that Tucker will be a free agent next year and the three aforementioned Astros still have several years of team control left, this may be one of the more lopsided trades in team history.
Lastly, the Houston pitching machine looks to be totally intact and even improving. The Astros have had many injuries in the rotation the past three years, and they have still developed enough talent to be above average at run prevention. Even if Dana Brown didn’t create the “pitching machine” he still deserves a lot of credit for maintaining and sustaining it.
Obviously, Dana Brown isn’t the sole factor behind the Astros’ success, but as the GM the buck stops with him. My concern when Crane fired Click was that Houston would lose their edge in scouting and player development. Fortunately, my concerns were totally unfounded. Dana Brown has made several key moves to replace the “golden generation” and keep Houston competitive for years to come. I am excited to see how this year’s draft goes!