In a bullpen led by Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly, and Bryan Abreu, Tayler Scott was arguably the most effective reliever for the Astros through July last season. Yes, there was approximately a two-run difference between his ERA (1.37) and FIP (3.28) through July 29, so we could understand that a sustained run like he was putting together was unlikely to continue indefinitely. But his performance did inspire hope that Dana Brown had discovered another reliever with some reliability.
Entering the 2025 season, Scott’s position in the bullpen was never really questioned. Barring injury, he was universally included in roster projections with little reason to doubt his inclusion. He wouldn’t supplant Hader or Abreu, but perhaps he could assume a mostly medium-leverage role. While the 2024 season ended on a sour note for him during his last 16 innings (5.06 ERA, 6.92 FIP), it was primarily viewed as a case of him running out of steam. I mean, 68 2⁄3 innings easily set a career-high in the majors. The hope for this season was that an offseason to recover would help him. It wasn’t a bad plan, all things considered.
Scott’s performance in 2025, however, hasn’t been good. Not even in the slightest. One of the things about his performance last season, for as fun as it was to watch, was that it was aided by a low BABIP (.238) with a strikeout rate that only hovered around 24.5%. It felt, for lack of a better term, a bit fluky. Any regression on one or both fronts could spell trouble for him, and we’re seeing that manifest this year (.316 BABIP, 21% K%). It also doesn’t help that Scott’s velocity has trended downward for the first month-plus of the season.
Never known for overwhelming velocity in the first place, Scott’s four-seam is now averaging around 92.2 mph compared to 92.8 mph in 2024. He also uses his four-seam about 50% of the time, so you can understand why that’s a potential problem. Opposing hitters are indeed more successful against Scott, specifically against his four-seam, split-finger, and slider thus far.
- Four-seam: .257 wOBA in 2024, .355 wOBA in 2025
- Slider: .301 wOBA in 2024, .592 wOBA in 2025
- Split finger: .234 wOBA in 2024, .306 wOBA in 2025
So, how long will the Astros give Scott to rebound? At this rate, he is approaching only mop-up territory. His status on this roster possibly depends on how soon Forrest Whitley returns. Keep in mind that Scott has no minor league options left. It is certainly possible that Bennett Sousa or Ryan Gusto are optioned to the minors before anything happens with Scott. Houston did see Scott flourish at the start of last season, and they possibly hope they can find that player again. We’re only in early May, after all.
With that said, the early trends aren’t promising. He is certainly distancing himself from the circle of trust, which now includes Bryan King and Steven Okert. Sousa and Gusto have outpitched Scott up to now, too. He is likely the odd man out if he continues to perform poorly, regardless of what he did last season or the lack of minor league options. The Astros are .500 and four games out of first place in the AL West. In other words, Scott may have some time to address his struggles, but perhaps not long enough to determine if any improvement is on the horizon.