Following an impressive 5-1 homestand against the Padres and Blue Jays, the Astros are trending upward for arguably the first time all season instead of only treading water. While it’s too early to obsess over the standings, it’s encouraging to see them within a game of the division-leading Rangers nearly a month into the season. The projections all indicated that the AL West will be a tight race, and that has played out thus far. Unlike last season, there isn’t at least a significant uphill climb in front of them at the moment.
Any success in the first 24 games should primarily be credited to the pitching staff, with a starting rotation ranking in the top six for FIP (3.54) and the top two for relievers (2.96). No other pitching staff is currently generating a higher swinging strike rate than Houston (12.8%). Only the Phillies have a better strikeout-minus-walk rate (17.9%) than the Astros (17.6%). Simply put, this early performance remains precisely that – early – but the numbers thus far aren’t a mirage. My primary concern at the moment is whether they will stay this good.
For a team with some valid concerns about its depth chart, this early success was somewhat unexpected. It’s not completely unforeseen considering they have Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Bryan Abreu, and Josh Hader, but rather in how the other pitchers have stepped up. For example, Ryan Gusto, Hayden Wesneski, and Steven Okert have all delivered quality innings, a development that was not assured on Opening Day. Losing Spencer Arrighetti to a freak right thumb injury still leaves little margin for error in the event of another injury or some underperformance. But with Lance McCullers Jr. on track to rejoin the team in May, it’ll help lessen the load on some of the younger arms.
The lineup has also shown some signs of life lately. While their overall wRC+ for the season (94) remains below average, this recent homestand (127 wRC+) has breathed new life into them. Looking ahead, Joe Espada must find ways to include Zach Dezenzo in the lineup more frequently. Chandler Rome reported the slim possibility of Cam Smith taking some reps in center field to open up right field for Dezenzo. Of course, there is no guarantee that this plan will yield any results or even materialize, but it demonstrates the organization’s willingness to experiment.
Of course, it would be a bigger boon if Yordan Alvarez and Christian Walker consistently hit like they have in the past. Alvarez is in the middle of a nearly month-long slump, with only five extra-base hits and an 86 wRC+ in his first 96 plate appearances. The homestand was more kind to Walker — 246 wRC+ with a pair of home runs — but the same point applies. Until one or both are consistently hitting well, the lineup will face an uphill battle in most games, no matter who is playing in center field or right field.
With that said, the Astros are trending in the right direction. The lineup has gradually improved over the past couple of weeks, with the pitching staff performing quite well. Although a 13-11 record in the first 24 games isn’t exactly noteworthy, it is sufficient to keep this team in the early mix. Whether this upward trajectory continues is another question, though.