It is hard to believe, but just three years ago Lance McCullers was Houston’s best starting pitcher and, start for start, he was one of the better pitchers in the American League. Which is why it will be hard for management, the team, and even Lance himself to accept that he just isn’t capable of being a starter anymore. Fortunately, moving him to the bullpen will help fix a significant weakness for our Stros’: middle relief.
Since making his big league debut in 2015, McCullers has topped 130 innings just once and that was in 2021 when he hurt himself in the postseason anyway. At age 30, if he hasn’t shown he is capable of consistently starting 25 games a year, it is worth asking if he ever will. However, he is young enough to reinvent himself as a relief pitcher and he has the stuff to be able to do so.
In 2022 and 2021, Lance used his curve and slider to perfection, producing 38 runs above average (according to baseball savant). Although his sinker was significantly more hittable, he still used it around 30% of the time. As a starting pitcher, it is very hard to rely on a two pitch mix because hitters tend to “figure it out” the second and third time through the order. Also, if one pitch declines in effectiveness throughout the season, as did Javier’s fastball in 2023, then the pitcher becomes extremely hittable. On a side note, this is probably why Cristian Javier threw more changeups on Friday night.
On the other hand, Bullpen guys have a much better track record relying on a two pitch mix. If McCullers was able to dramatically reduce is sinker usage and rely on his knuckle curve/slider mix, he could make a very capable one inning weapon.
No one should ever put too much stock in an opening series; maybe Taylor Scott and Parker Mushinski will develop into solid bullpen assets, but they were cheap for a reason. If Taylor Scott was a pitcher who could reliably seal the door in close games, then he wouldn’t have signed for a minor league contract. Shifting LMJ to the bullpen when he returns in July (we hope) will seal one of the team’s biggest weaknesses.
Obviously, starting pitchers are more valuable than their bullpen counterparts, but Lance has shown he is incapable of pitching a full season anyway.
What do y’all think? Is LMJ better served in the bullpen or do you want to see him try to get back to the old Lance? Comment below!