An unappetizing but responsible proposal
There are moments when it feels like an avalanche. The Houston Astros 2025 season feels that way. As I write this, the Astros have a four game lead in the AL West. However, more than a few analysts feel like it is a pyrite situation. The Astros currently lead the league with 18 injuries and their everyday lineup and starting rotation resembles what the Sugar Land Space Cowboys are throwing out on a nightly basis.
Today, I am presenting the case for doing nothing. Mind you, publication lags may already render this post moot by the time it comes to air time. The deals will be coming fast and furious over the next few days and the Astros may indeed be a part of some of them. However, it is fair to ask whether they should be. Below are just a few reasons why they should pass.
Quicksand
Simply put, contenders by and large know what their biggest needs are at this point. Yet, the Astros are in a precarious situation on that front. The biggest need seems to change on an almost nightly basis. Simply put, the injury situation is as extensive as any team has seen this century. When I look at this team, I look at a team that can’t score runs consistently. When you are throwing out the likes of Cooper Hummel, Taylor Trammel, Zack Short, and Brice Matthews, those kinds of things are bound to happen.
Yet, as we speak, this is a team with only four healthy starters. Brandon Walter’s injury came at the worst possible time and just provides an example of the avalanche facing the team. Yes, arms like Spencer Arighetti, Cristian Javier, and Luis Garcia are near return, but that presents a different issue we will get to later.
Meanwhile, we keep hearing that Jeremy Pena is near return. Jake Meyers is perpetually about three weeks from returning. Jacob Melton may come back soon as well. Yet, we heard bad news on Isaac Paredes before the previous series. Brendan Rodgers is likely out until at least September and reports on Yordan Alvarez are mixed at best. So, what is this team’s biggest need?
The problem with quicksand is that the more you struggle and thrash away at the problem the more you sink. Sure, you could add a Willi Castro and he would more than certainly be better than what you are throwing out there. Still, this team is not going anywhere until it gets healthy. A single trade likely doesn’t change the calculus that much. This isn’t to say they can’t win the west. We have learned not to doubt this group and their resolve, but suffice it to say THIS iteration of the Astros is not going to go far.
The Future
It seems like a politicians answer, but this offseason might be the most important offseason for the Astros. They have a key free agent in Framber Valdez, but more importantly they are clearing as much as 50 million in payroll if you include his 2025 salary. 2025 was always going to be a year of transition and we are just fortunate enough to see enough key performances to stay in the race.
I’m not a lawyer, capologist, and I didn’t stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but it is fair to say that going over the tax threshold has some long-term ramifications. It is fair to debate how onerous those penalties are, but this is a team with a thin farm system and a roster in an age of flux. It might be prudent to save some of those bullets for the offseason when we have a better idea of what the team needs are.
There will be questions about Matthews and what his long-term prognosis is. Is he the second baseman of the future? The last two months can tell us a lot. The more positions you can pencil in a young player the more money you have to spend on other positions. Even if Dana Brown is a scouting master, it will likely take two to three more drafts minimum to build this thing back up and the more bullets you have in terms of draft picks and international bonus pool money the better.
A trade that would count
When the autopsy of the 2025 season is told, it likely will not be the players and coaches that deserve the most criticism. The story of this season (and the last few) has been the abject failure of the medical and training staff. Sure, there are the sheer number of injuries to contend with, but that isn’t the primary issue. The primary issue is the extra time it has taken those injured players to get back on the field.
The Astros handed out a plaque to a retired hand doctor. They should probably hold a ceremony rescinding that plaque back based on how badly Yordan Alvarez’s injury has been mishandled and misidentified. A process that could have been eight to ten weeks of injury/surgical recovery has turned into the entire season. Pitchers coming back from injury have taken nearly twice as long to recover as normal in some cases. Jake Meyers could have immediately been put on the injured list and possibly could be back now. Instead, we are getting the Astros’ version of infrastructure week.
Some of this is clunky messaging that has plagued the Astros consistently over the last decade. We have to be reminded that players are entitled to some form of privacy, but the Astros seem to provide the most damaging and laughable explanations for things. No explanation would probably be preferable. Still, even given the bad communication, there has been clear mismanagement.
The best thing this team could do at the deadline in the short term and long term is trade for another team’s medical and training staff. A trade or two could plug a couple of holes, but new holes will spring open if the current methods used by the medical staff and training staff continue to go unabated.
This is not giving up
I have to say this again clearly and proudly. Giving up would be trading veterans that are healthy and productive to build for the future. Doing that with a four game lead would be baseball malpractice. I’m sure doing nothing could be seen as that as well, but standing pat does come with some help. If the club is able to get Pena and Meyers back that could be enough offense to get over the hump. If the trio of injured starters come back it could stabilize the rotation and provide enough to get over the hump as well.
That is a ton of ifs. However, the flip side is dark and I’m not sure one or two trades would change that. There are just some seasons where there are too many injuries. When you compound that with the mismanagement of those injuries then you might have a result you cannot overcome.
I could throw out some fancy numbers and those numbers are there, but this is simply the eyeball test. Look at this roster and tell me this is a World Series contending roster. If everyone comes back by October we might be singing a different tune. The trade deadline won’t fix that or make that happen any faster. We have to put our faith in medical science and the healing power of time. One of those I trust right now. One of those I don’t.