it just might be time
Author’s note: Statistics in this article are accurate as of Tuesday.
I haven’t been around these parts long, but within the Astros fan universe I have been around a long time. Anyone that knows me well knows I am a sucker for data. I call myself vballretired because I used to be a high school volleyball coach. While that isn’t coaching baseball or football, there are some common elements there. So, I am definitely not indifferent to the personality aspect of any sport.
However, data is important for coaches because it tells you the message that the players are hearing and whether it jives with the message you trying to deliver. A breakdown in coaching can happen for two main reasons. Either the coach is ineffective because they don’t know what their message should be or they are ineffective because the message is not being delivered or received well.
I want to use data because I want to avoid emotional decisions. It is hard to watch your team lose a 1-0 game like it did during Hunter Brown’s last start and not be emotional. When I say emotional it isn’t like you are throwing chairs or crying uncontrollably. It is about making rash judgments based on small sample sizes. Relying on data can help us steer clear of those rash decisions.
The common conception of Alex Cintron is that he is a fiery guy that gets ejected a lot, but does little else. Of course, that might actually be true, but it is not particularly fair. When we go back to 2017 and look at a few key statistics it is quite clear what the message is. It is also clear that the message was effective at one point. Obviously, the goal is runs scored, but if we look at components like strikeouts, walks, and grounding into double plays we will see what the message. The numbers below represent the MLB ranks in those categories.
2017: 1st in runs, 1st with fewest strikeouts, 20th in walks, 24th in GIDP
2018: 6th in runs, 2nd with fewest strikeouts, 8th in walks, 30th in GIDP
2019: 3rd in runs, 1st with fewest strikeouts, 1st in walks, 30th in GIDP
2020: 14th in runs, 1st with fewest strikeouts, 18th in walks, 12th in GIDP
2021: 1st in runs, 2nd with fewest strikeouts, 9th in walks, 27th in GIDP
2022: 8th in runs, 2nd with fewest strikeouts, 9th in walks, 17th in GIDP
2023: 5th in runs, 3rd with fewest strikeouts, 11th in walks, 24th in GIDP
2024: 11th in runs, 3rd with fewest strikeouts, 27th in walks, 28th in GIDP
2025: 20th in runs, 5th with fewest strikeouts, 16th in walks, 25th in GIDP
The message is pretty clear. Make contact. A large part of the turnaround between 2016 and 2017 was the difference in strikeouts. We went from striking out more than everyone to making more contact than everyone. Even in the early going the difference is stark. Yes, we are whiffing more often than usual, but so is the rest of the league. So, that message is still getting through.
The vast difference between this season and seasons past is probably the guys that came in. That is true of both strikeouts and walks. That indicates that there is a lot of swinging early in counts for some of the hitters. When you swing earlier you won’t strike out often, but you also won’t draw walks. You are also more apt to ground into double plays.
So, it isn’t fair to say Cintron is doing nothing. He is telling these guys something. The question is whether he is telling them something effective. Yes, runs scoring is a lot about the talent available, but it is also about whether that talent is living up to its full potential. It is hard to look at the numbers above and come to the conclusion that these guys are playing up to their potential.
The hard comparison is seeing what is happening on the pitching side of the equation. Guys no one has heard of are coming in and performing better here than they ever have before. Many of them perform better here than at their next stop as well. Yet, we have hitters that leave here that seem to do better. The comments from the Red Sox hitting coaches on Bregman might be the nail in the coffin. Slow starts were just accepted here. The Red Sox immediately got to work and he is having his best season since 2019.
Through Tuesday night’s contest, the Astros have scored three runs or fewer in 26 of their 48 games. The numbers above represent an aggregate and over a 162 game schedule the aggregate usually tells you what you need to know. That happened 67 times last season which is a approximately 41 percent of the time. That is still not good, but this team is on pace to score three or fewer runs in 88 games this season.
It’s highly probable that the style of keeping the ball in play and drawing a healthy number of walks (at least in the early part of the dynastic run) was a recipe for good total run production. However, it has always appeared disjointed on a night in and night out basis. The eyeball test indicated something different. This team goes into explosion mode where they play what we might call “bully ball” and those dominant games positively skew the aggregate. Baseball-reference.com defines blowout games as games where you win or lose by five or more runs. Check this out during the dynastic run.
2017: 35-19 (+2)
2018: 37-8 (-6)
2019: 36-12 (0)
2020: 8-8 (-1)
2021: 36-12 (-6)
2022: 35-13 (0)
2023: 28-15 (-3)
2024: 29-23 (-2)
2025: 5-3 (-1)
The numbers in parentheses are the number of games above or below the expected win total for that season. Notice that 2017 was the only season in that run where they outperformed their expected wins. For a team that routinely wins 90 or more games that is remarkable. Most teams that win 100 or more games do so in part because they outperform their Pythagorean projection. That happened exactly once for a team that won 100 or more games four times during the run.
When you are winning a division by ten or more games, a game here or there really doesn’t matter. When the margin is razor thin as it has been the last couple of seasons it matters a great deal. I don’t think a new voice will suddenly turn the Astros offense into the Big Red Machine. It might not become much more than league average. Yet, with this team’s strong pitching, league average might be enough to get the job done. In a close divisional race, the sooner you make this improvement the better.