Some things to think about as the all-important month of June approaches
Under this current run of Astros’ dominance, June is usually a month when Houston hits its stride on the field, but mindful of what it might need in the trade market. Even last season, when Houston seemed stuck in neutral before surging and when they were looking up at the Rangers, there was not a question of whether Houston would get to the playoffs, but would they be a division winner. That constant got upended this season. The team will end the month under .500, looking up at Seattle and Texas/Arlington in the standings.
Two straight under .500 months haven’t been seen in a Houston full season since 2014. While many don’t really see 2024 ending without Houston in the playoffs, it is far from a certainty. Perhaps hyperbole, but June 2024 might be one of the most consequential months in Astros’ history. A team that is all about contending for championships in the here-and-now is also aware of the demands of time. With stalwarts like Verlander, Bregman and Pressly slated for free agency at the end of this year (or in a position for that to happen), there is the sense of a last ride. What should Houston do? A few thoughts.
Houston must be no worse than 1-2 games under .500 by July 1. Given that Houston entered May nine games under .500, it was going to be a tall order to get back over .500 for June. Houston got as close as five under, but have not been able to improve beyond that. Worst case (which is not all that unlikely), Houston starts June nine games under. While plenty of season left, time is not on the Astros’ side forever. Right now, Houston has no reason to alter the course of the team this season or make any moves that might signify some sort of rebuild. Yet, there will come a point when perhaps the deficit can be a bit too much to overcome. Nine under in May or even the start of June, especially in a weak division (more later) is not a death knell. Yet, if a team is significantly under .500 coming into July, then some brutal questions arise. For Houston, it means a rethink about the 2024 goals and the implications for 2025 and beyond. With a weak farm system and a higher payroll than Crane would like, but with a talented team still on the roster, a soft rebuild is an option for a reset for 2025 and reloading for another contention window.
The June Schedule Offers Houston the Chance to Salvage the Season: While expecting any team, even this one, to go undefeated for a month is impossible, June would appear to offer Houston the chance to build off some of its progress from May. After a 12-24 start, playing against arguably the toughest schedule in MLB, Houston found success, mainly against weaker opponents like Oakland and Colorado, but they did take down division-leaders Cleveland and Milwaukee. In June, they get home matchups against Minnesota (2); St. Louis (3); Detroit (3), Baltimore (3); Colorado (2) and road tilts with the Angels (3); San Francisco (3); Chicago White Sox (3); and the New York Mets (3). Aside from Baltimore, none of those teams are what you’d call a juggernaut. While the Astros are not the winning constant of the past, if they are going to get back over .500, this is a schedule against which they can and should feast. Regardless of what Seattle and/or Texas/Arlington do, if Houston can’t get over .500, the rest doesn’t matter.
About Jose Abreu: Perhaps the most contentious issue for the Astros will be what to do about Abreu. The former AL MVP is the front runner for LVP of the entire MLB. His return from assignment yielded a 1-7, 1 RBI start…pushing his average to a healthy .111. Yet, he is not even halfway through a 3 year/$58M deal. With no team in baseball needing to get to a salary floor, it is unlikely that Houston could trade Abreu without including some high-caliber prospects (which they currently do not have). At what point do the Astros cut their losses? Brown indicate that the franchise doesn’t have infinite patience. Removing Abreu from the payroll will not remove the tax obligations, and the Abreu signing will still go down as arguably Crane’s worst move as owner (in the free agent realm). However, the Astros are no longer good enough to accommodate a line-up black hole like Abreu. You don’t mistake Singleton for an All-Star, but compared to Abreu, he is the second coming of Bagwell (on-field Bags, not the current executive incarnation). Abreu is not the sole reason for the team being 10-22 in his games this year, but the impact of his negative WAR is really not helping.
The Deceptive Weakness of the AL West: Seattle, Texas/Arlington, Houston claiming the 1-3 slots in the AL West: not a shock. Seeing that the best team is a) only 4 over .500 and b) the only one over .500 at this point in the season: a yuugggeee shock. Yet, all of the top 3 teams have some serious flaws, be it massive injury issues (Houston, Arlington), offensive issues (Houston, Seattle), pitching issues (Houston, Arlington) or just issues period (Houston). However, the Rangers’ bats won’t all stay down forever and they should get some of their injured pitchers back soon. Seattle’s offense will either start revving up or get some much needed trade-deadline reinforcements. Still, unlike some other weaker divisions in the past, where they got to the playoffs because someone had to, should either one of these three get into the playoffs, they would be very, very dangerous out. Seattle has some of the best pitching in the game, always a nightmare come playoffs. Arlington is a defending champion, with many of the same cast and crew, which you can’t ever discount. Houston in the playoffs is a team no one would ever really want to see. However, to be a part of that conversation, Houston needs to get over .500 fairly soon, regardless of what happens with the rest of the weak division.
At present, the Astros are caught in a strange limbo. If a team is what their record is, the Astros are a non-winning team stuck in a weak division. Yet, the talent and experience of this squad, along with the time left in the season suggest that Houston’s 2024 ambitions are far from dead. At the risk of sounding like a desperate Astros’ fan broken record, the team must get it going soon. Otherwise, all the gloom and doom feelings go from a current mood to full-on, unambiguous reality.