Where are the Astros six games into the season?
Apologies to filmmaker Sergio Leone, but his movie provides a good title for the Astros’ performance so far. [Maybe if we expand the discussion to the Astros’ off-season, we could use the title of another film in Leone’s trilogy, “For a Few Dollars More.”] If you have watched the six games so far, you probably can recite a few moments that fit into the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.
It’s small sample size theater right now. So, keep that in mind.
The Good
The Astros’ starting pitching has been good. No, make that very good. The Astros’ starting pitchers are No. 1 in ERA (1.46) at this early juncture of the season. And, beyond that good news, each of the starting pitchers thus far has shown great progress in addressing their problematic issues from 2023. Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier are No. 4 and No. 6 among MLB starting pitchers in Stuff+. Ronel Blanco is in the top 16 in Stuff+. Valdez is No. 3 in Ground Ball rate with a healthy 72% GB. (Blanco isn’t far behind—-with a 60% GB.) Continuing my subjective grading of Astros’ starting pitchers, both Blanco and Valdez had A+ starts in the first two games of the Blue Jays series.
The Astros starting pitching staff is tied for No. 1 in Stuff+. On a pitch type basis, the Astros staff’s Stuff+ is No. 1 for change ups and No. 2 for curve balls. If the Astros’ starting pitchers keep this up, the Astros W/L record will be fine in the long run. I am a strong believer that the rotation is critical to keeping the team in games, and that keeping the team in games will pay off over the full season. Strong starting pitching essentially changes the run environment that the team plays in, and requires less runs scored to win games.
The Bad
Unfortunately, the first six games provide too much competition for deciding which components of the team have been bad or ugly. The Astros’ offense has been bad. And I include base running within the offensive category. Here’s the wild thing. The Astros’ offense is tied for No. 1 in wRC+ (136). The Astros’ offense’s problem isn’t that the hitters have been bad on an overall basis. The main issue has been sequencing—both from game- to-game (10 runs in one game will do that) and within each game.
The Astros’ Pythagorean Record is 3-3, not 1-6. The Astros’ offense scored as many runs as the pitching allowed. But the runs scored and runs allowed were not distributed evenly over the six games. In addition, the Astros offense has been terrible at sequencing within the game. The OPS+ is 71 in late and close situations. The OPS+ is 80 in high leverage situations. An offense’s extreme negative sequencing tends to regress toward a more even distribution over the course of the season. Put a simpler way, this is not a permanent problem, and we should expect better sequencing results in the future.
Manager Joe Espada told his team to be aggressive on the base paths. The base running was comical in Tuesday’s game—and it wasn’t confined to just one player. Currently the Astros are 4th worst in team base running, according to Fangraphs. The White Sox, Angels, and Giants are the only teams with worse base running. This strikes me as a difficult thing to address from a coaching standpoint. How do you dial back unnecessary risks on the bases without detracting from the player’s confidence on the bases? If the negative trend continues, it will be interesting to see if Espada alters the team’s base running expectation.
The Ugly
Oh, the bullpen results have been ugly. Relief pitchers were awarded all five losses so far. The Astros’ bullpen is dead last in WAR. The bullpen is also dead last in FIP and third from worst in ERA. I mean, what else can you say?
An important point though: the peripheral metrics for the bullpen rank considerably better. So far, the Astros’ bullpen is tied for No. 11 in Stuff+. I think the glimmer of hope lies in the track record of the individuals in the bullpen. The top three have as good a performance record and history as any relievers in baseball. With the middle relief changes and the changes in roles, it may take awhile for the bullpen to gel. Let’s hope it happens soon.
The Future
This “X” post by Tangotiger is several days old, but the general thought is still applicable.
You should react exactly the same with the first 3 games in a season as you would with game numbers 35, 36, 37. They all mean exactly the same.
But you will remember the first 3, and you will totally ignore games 35-37. That’s called being human. That’s also called being wrong.
— Tangotiger (@tangotiger) April 1, 2024
And, after Tangotiger discusses the small nature of the impact on the future record, Bill James in the conversation:
That would be my inclination, to suspect that the first three games would be poorer predictors than three taken at random. Opening series seem to me atypical enough that it might be reasonable to look at them as different.
— Bill James Online (@billjamesonline) April 2, 2024
However, as Tangotiger subsequently points out, a good or poor start to the season should affect the projected season end record. It’s just not a one-for-one impact on the projected ending W/L record.
Think about it this way. The Pythagorean Record indicates an expectation (based on RS and RA) that the Astros should be 3-3, which means they should have won 2 more games. The Fangraphs playoff odds seem to follow that kind of trajectory. The Astros are now projected at 87.7 wins, which is 2.3 wins less than the previous projection of 90 wins. The Astros still are projected to win the division, but the probability has decreased from 61% to 50%. According to Fangraphs, the Astros playoff probability is 74% (down from 81% in pre-season).
Okay, so much for the deep thoughts about this start to the season. Let’s hope that the Astros win tonight!