Hader has been so good we sometimes forget his importance.
As the Astros surprisingly built their winning record, we sometimes forget the most reliable link in their winning. How important has closer Josh Hader been to this effort? Very.
How good has Josh Hader been? Very. Let’s look at some stats:
- Hader leads all MLB qualified relievers with 0 meltdowns. He also leads all relievers in Win Prbability Added (WPA) with 3.58.
- Hader is No. 2 in K rate (40.6%) and leads all relievers in K-BB. (36%). His SIERA is 3d at 1.79.
- Hader x-ERA of 1.65 is even lower than his 1.73 actual ERA. He is not doing this with mirrors.
- Hader’s 118 Stuff+ is the best among all Astros’ pitchers, including the monster starter, Hunter Brown.
- Hader also leads all relievers with 21 saves vs. 0 blown saves.
The importance of Hader’s shut down leveraged innings is best exemplified by these two stats: (1) The Astros are No. 1 in the majors in 1 run wins at 17-7. (2) The Astros are 3d best in extra inning win record (5-1). The Astros have achieved their current win percent by winning a league leading 22 of the last 30 games. And the team’s ability to win close, low scoring games is a big part of that trend.
- It’s fairly obvious that a good closer is crucial to winning most 1 run games. Furthermore, Manager Joe Espada has frequently used Hader in extra inning games. The Astros’ recent history created the story line that the team doesn’t know how to win extra inning games. Last season Espada began to experiment with using Hader in multiple innings so that he could pitch in the extra inning frame. This seems to have altered the Astros’ usual expectation in Extras. Strike outs are the best way to suppress scoring of the phantom runner—and Hader is the guy who can strike batters out in critical situations. 3 of Hader’s 5 wins are in extra innings.
Although i’ve focused on Hader, I don’t want to downplay the good performances by the rest of the bullpen. The relief corps has to be team-oriented. Hader doesn’t have his opportunities in the 9th inning if the rest of the pen blows up before he pitches.
And, yes, the bullpen including Hader has been excellent. When I watch the games, I sometimes think of Steven Okert as Hader’s “mini-me.” Both LHPs look similar on the mound, and Okert’s K/9 (11.9) and WHIP (0.64) are deadly. Okert throws at a lower velocity, but his slider is just as nasty as Hader’s. Bryan Abreu has higher velocity than Hader and can strike out batters seemingly at will. And so on.
So how does the Astros’ bullpen rank in the MLB?
- The Astros’ bullpen is 3d best in blown saves (8). The bullpen is No. 1 in avoiding melt downs (27). By comparison the Nats and the Red Sox are the worst with 54 and 49 melt downs each. (For what it’s worth, the Melt Down stat is better for evaluating bullpens than blown saves.)
- The Astros’ bullpen is tied for first in fWAR (4.2) 2d best in ERA (3.22), 1st in SIERA and 1st in K/9 (10.7).
- The Astros’ bullpen is 2d best in Run Expectancy (RE24 of 31 runs above average). The Astros’ relievers also lead the majors in WPA (5.81).
According to Baseball-Reference, the Astros currently are +2 wins above the team’s Pythagorean Win %. Sure, some of this may be luck. But it’s worth noting that bullpen or closer performance is the only variable which tends to be correlated with Pythag over-performance.
So far Hader and the bullpen are a critical part the Astros’ winning ways. Just knowing that Hader and Abreu will pitch the late innings probably gives the hitters confidence that the team can come back late in games.