Sooner or later, with 18(!) players on the IL, the effect of those injuries was going to catch up to the Astros. You can only outrun the sheer amount and magnitude of those injuries for so long. Unfortunately, the issues related to those injuries and their impact on the active roster are manifesting themselves once again. The Astros are now 5-10 in their last 15 games, with a startling 1-8 record in their last nine home games, including Saturday’s defeat against the A’s.
There hasn’t been a lot to like about the first three games of this four-game set against the A’s. Saturday’s game, though, was a relatively close one up until Héctor Neris couldn’t put away Lawrence Butler in the ninth inning. But more about him later.
If there was a bright side, it was that Hunter Brown seemed to turn the proverbial corner regarding his recent string of performances. While he started the month of July off on a firm footing, his last three starts before Saturday were anything but that. In fact, in his previous 15 innings pitched, Brown allowed 13 earned runs. For context, he allowed only 21 earned runs in his first 104 innings of the season. That’s not an optimal development for a club that needs strong run prevention to remain competitive in games lately.
While Brown wasn’t at his most efficient (only 10 whiffs on 39 swings), he did hold the A’s to only one run across five innings, allowing four hits and two walks while striking out five. Again, it wasn’t his best start of the season, but also far from his worst. The Astros needed a start like this one to keep everything within striking distance, and Brown did his part.
Alas, the rest of the team didn’t do as well.
The lineup, currently ravaged by injuries, continues to reveal its weaknesses. A’s starter Jacob Lopez struggled with command early, but settled a few innings into his start. Although he walked four and allowed two hits in 4 1⁄3 innings, the Astros couldn’t score a run in the first five innings. Houston’s only run of the day would occur via a sacrifice fly in the sixth inning by Chas McCormick against Justin Sterner to make it a 2-1 deficit. That sixth inning, in particular, was the team’s best chance to score since the second, with runners on the corners and no out. But McCormick’s sacrifice would represent the only run all game for the Astros.
Frankly, this lineup is a significant weakness at the moment. No shock there when you look at the bottom half, as those are names you’d expect in Sugar Land. No offense to those guys, of course, but let’s be honest with ourselves. This isn’t a good lineup, and it won’t improve until one of two things happens: Dana Brown acquires another hitter by the trade deadline, or someone returns from the IL. Ideally, both developments come to pass within the next week, but we’ll see what happens.
In addition to the bottom half of the batting order being an issue, the top half isn’t doing much better themselves. Cam Smith, for example, has had a terrific rookie season up to now. But it was suspected that, sooner or later, he’d hit the “rookie wall.” This current workload by far exceeds any previous season for him and will continue until the campaign is finished. And, by the look of things at the moment, he has hit that wall in July. Following his first nine games of the month with 15 hits, Smith has only contributed four hits total since then. Or, you know, 12 games, including Saturday’s game. For a lineup hurting in more ways than one, Smith’s production downturn looms large.
Another hitter that has continued to struggle this season is Yainer Díaz. Three groundball outs, including a double play, nullified three separate opportunities with runners on base against the A’s. It is easy to harp on a single game’s worth of results, although his batted ball numbers are closer to his strong 2023 season, but his decline as a hitter this season has noticeably heightened the lineup’s shortcomings. Between him and Christian Walker, it is going to be a race to see who is the most disappointing hitter for the Astros this season.
Talking about disappointing, how about Héctor Neris’ third stint with the Astros? While I appreciate the heck out of his first stint, the right-hander was a liability last season and continues to be one in 2025. Average fastball velocity is now down to 92.4 mph, two mph off his average in 2022. That three-run home run to Butler to make it 5-2 ought to force Houston to reevaluate. I’d rather have kept Forrest Whitley around than give Neris any leverage innings or re-sign him in the first place, but that is just me.
On the plus side, the Astros still maintain either a four or five-game lead over the Mariners, depending on the result of their game against the Angels. But the Rangers are also breathing down their necks, now only down five games in the standings and surging. In theory, with the right addition or two to the roster, along with some players hopefully returning from the IL, they remain in decent shape moving forward. Of course, it all hinges on whether they can avoid a freefall in the meantime. Avoiding a four-game sweep would be a good place to start. Come back to me in a week and let’s see where everything settles. Colton Gordon gets the start on Sunday with J.T. Ginn starting for the A’s.