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Three Realistic Landing Spots for Astros’ Free Agent Ace

December 2, 2025 by Last Word On Baseball

Framber Valdez enters free agency as one of the most coveted pitchers on the market: a durable, ground-ball machine with elite playoff experience and top-of-the-rotation presence. Left-handed frontline starters rarely hit the market, and Valdez’s ability to give 175–200 innings with swing-and-miss stuff makes him a centerpiece target for every contender with money to spend. Here are a few realistic fits — including one big-market club ready to push the bidding toward the $200 million mark.

Framber Valdez is a prime candidate for an extension from the Astros.
Feb 14, 2025; West Palm Beach, FL, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez (59) plays catch during a spring training workout at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Best Free Agency Fits for Framber Valdez

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

Why It Makes Sense

Valdez is the consummate October-ready staff ace. The Dodgers love pitchers who dominate contact quality, stay in the zone, and avoid home runs — all things Valdez excels at. He fits their model perfectly: a reliable postseason performer who pairs with World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto to form a lethal righty–lefty playoff duo. With constant rotational turnover, Los Angeles craves stability, and Valdez offers exactly that.

He gives them a guaranteed Game 2 (or even Game 1) starter in every playoff series.

Projected Contract

6 years, $180–195 million

Rationale

The Dodgers can comfortably operate in this tier, and Valdez’s playoff résumé pushes him well north of $30 million per year. LA gets its co-ace without stretching into a seven- or eight-year megadeal.

2. New York Mets

Why It Makes Sense

The Mets are a big-market powerhouse ready to spend on a frontline arm. This is the perfect marriage of need and resources. The Mets want to win immediately, and their rotation behind Kodai Senga is incomplete. David Stearns prioritizes pitchers who induce ground balls and limit hard contact. Valdez is arguably the best ground-ball starter in baseball.

With Steve Cohen backing the payroll, the Mets can simply outbid everyone. They also have the motivation: their NL East rivals are stacked with frontline pitching (Spencer Strider, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola), and New York needs an answer.

Valdez becomes the Mets’ version of Carlos Rodón or Zack Wheeler — a tone-setting lefty who shifts the team’s entire competitive ceiling.

Only one pitcher has thrown 700+ IP with a 125 ERA+ or better since 2022:

Framber Valdez 💪

One of the most consistently great pitchers in the sport pic.twitter.com/ddBpVkqDwu

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) November 13, 2025

Projected Contract

7 years, $200–215 million

Rationale

If anyone pushes the deal to (or beyond) $200 million, it’s the Mets. A seven-year structure spreads the money out while allowing Cohen to win the bidding war. This is the most aggressive and most realistic big-number match.

 

3. Baltimore Orioles

Why It Makes Sense

Baltimore’s young core is World Series-ready, but the rotation, especially after trading Grayson Rodriguez, lacks the battle-tested presence needed in October. Valdez gives them everything they’ve been missing: postseason poise, innings, and ground-ball dominance in a hitter-friendly division.

The Orioles have the payroll space — and competitive urgency — to make a major splash after years of bargain signings and finally add a true frontline veteran.

Projected Contract

6 years, $175–190 million

Rationale

Baltimore may not want to reach Mets levels, but this range is realistic if they decide it’s time to go all in. A six-year deal keeps them competitive without sacrificing long-term flexibility.

The Last Word

Framber Valdez is the exact kind of frontline starter teams pay a premium for: durable, playoff-proven, left-handed, and still in his prime. His market will be aggressive, and the Mets are the most likely team to push his price toward the $200-215 million range.

Most likely landing spots right now:

  1. Mets — the biggest spender and most motivated bidder
  2. Dodgers — elite fit and World Series urgency
  3. Orioles — the contender that needs him most

 

Main Photo Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

The post Three Realistic Landing Spots for Astros’ Free Agent Ace appeared first on Last Word On Baseball.

Filed Under: Astros

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