Framber Valdez is arguably at his best when he pitches to contact or specifically looks to generate groundball outs. That isn’t a controversial statement as history has indicated as much, with the left-hander posting four consecutive sub-3.60 ERA seasons with a groundball rate of 54% or higher. By fWAR, only ten other starting pitchers have produced more value than Valdez since 2020. His sinker has played a prominent role in that performance, limiting opposing hitters to a .336 wOBA in his last four seasons.
Alas, his 2023 season was a tale of two halves: A 2.27 ERA through June 20 and a 4.46 ERA from that point afterward. Valdez’s postseason starts against the Twins and Rangers were subsequently not much better. Much like how the sinker fueled his rise in past seasons, it also led to his downfall, at least partially, last year.
Once a real weapon for Valdez, his sinker became a liability in the summer months. Opposing hitters feasted on the pitch, slugging .415 with a .517 xSLG on the season. For context, opposing hitters only slugged .356 in 2021, with a .409 xSLG, when the southpaw truly broke out in a full season.
So, what happened to suddenly make the sinker a liability? Here is the short and sweet version: Higher velocity has led to less vertical drop and more horizontal movement to the arm side.
Normally, I am a fan of higher velocity from a pitcher. An exciting development, at least to me. It was an obvious priority for Valdez as he experienced a 2.5 MPH average jump in velocity between 2021 and 2023 on his sinker. But this increased velocity has altered the movement profile of the pitch, which has had some ramifications for the left-hander. One such change is a decrease in groundball rate, which isn’t an optimal development for a pitcher like Valdez, whose success has been primarily due to his ability to generate groundball outs.
As already mentioned, his sinker had noticeably less vertical break than before. There was also noticeably more horizontal break. The example from 2023 below illustrates these changes.
Compare that to, say, the movement from his sinker in 2020, when Valdez started his break out.
It goes without saying too much that less vertical break and more horizontal break has caused Valdez’s sinker to remain higher in the zone than it has in the past. Heatmaps in his Statcast profile essentially prove that much. Opposing hitters are generating more favorable launch angles, up from -9 degrees on average in 2021 to 4 degrees in 2023. Barrels also increased. While hard hit figures remained roughly on par compared to past seasons, but Valdez has always given up some hard contact. Hard contact doesn’t matter that much when opposing hitters drill the ball into the ground. But an elevated sinker in the zone with lesser vertical break and increased horizontal break becomes more of a favorable target for opposing hitters. In turn, those sinkers become meatballs, as Valdez could surely attest to last season when he allowed 11 home runs off the pitch. A noticeable jump from only six dingers in 2021.
At its core, Valdez’s sinker is best utilized to generate groundballs. Strikeouts are great and this is an aspect that I think needed some attention in the past. But opposing hitters need to drill the ball into the ground in order for him to best optimize his pitch arsenal, most notably his sinker. Strikeouts, for better or worse, ought to become a secondary concern. The gradual erosion of his groundball rate in recent seasons will need to be reversed, although I am not sure if the solution is simply less velocity. Is this a problem that can be solved by other adjustments like mechanics or release points? Or is it a pure velocity issue? Something to watch in the upcoming season as Opening Day quickly approaches.