Astros need the rehabbed starting pitchers to be effective
The Astros hoped to nab a starting pitcher at the trade deadline—and they attempted t do so. But the trading cost apparently was too high. Now the Astros are left hoping that reinforcements from their injured starting pitchers will help save the season.
Spencer Arrighetti and Cristian Javier appear to be the closest to returning to the major league level. The Astros have suggested that Arrighetti could return this week and Javier within the following week. But the pitchers’ latest rehab starts in the minor leagues could affect those predictions. Luis Garcia and J.P. France probably have slightly longer time lines.
Why are these question important? The Astros have two top level starting pitchers, Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez, but they need five or six pitchers in the starting rotation. So far, the Astros have relied upon 4 essentially rookie starting pitchers to fill that gap: Brandon Walter, Colton Gordon, Jason Alexander, and Ryan Gusto. Gusto was traded at the deadline, which leaves Walter, Gordon, and Alexander. However, Walter currently is on the Injured List with arm discomfort, thus leaving the Astros with two replacement starters. It is unclear when Walter might return, but hopefully it will be soon.
The current three replacement starters (Walter, Gordon, and Alexander) have combined for a weighted average ERA of 4.50 and FIP of 5.01. Walter has performed the best (3.35 ERA), Gordon the worst (5.35 ERA), and Alexander in the middle (4.86 ERA). [If Gusto’s 5.45 ERA had been included, the average ERA would be worse.]
You can see the Astros’ immediate dilemma. First, with the exception of the injured Walter, the replacement starters have provided fringy performance, basically “just acceptable” for a major league starter. Second, unless an injured pitcher returns this week, the Astros likely face the need to give a spot start to a AAA pitcher like Blubaugh, which is somewhat risky given his recent minor league appearances.
But how effective will the returning injured starters perform? Two of the injured pitchers (Javier and Garcia) are returning from TJ surgery. Arrighetti is returning from a fractured thumb. Basically the effectiveness of pitchers returning from surgery is uncertain and undoubtedly depends on the players’ individual bodies and recovery. While TJ surgery has a reasonably high percentage of successful outcomes, the relative effectiveness of the rehabbed pitchers will vary. As a generalization, the pitcher’s stuff (velocity and pitch movement) returns first. Pitching analysts frequently say that command and control is the last characteristic to return. So, it’s possible that early in the recovery, the pitcher may have good velocity or pitch movement, but control may require more time to achieve the pitcher’s normal proficiency.
Can we speculate on how effective the returning starting pitchers will be? All we have to look at are the results of the minor league rehab starts. (Of course, the Astros have additional detailed metrics to add to the basic stats.) The minor league rehab results (all levels) are shown below.
Pitcher/ Games / ERA / FIP / K/9 / BB/9
Arrighetti 3G 5.73 / 6.03 / K/9 9.0 / BB/9 4.09
Javier 4G 6.10 / 5.21 / K/9 7.84 / BB/9 9.58
Garcia 5G 3.27 / 4.26 / K/9 11.45 / BB/9 2.45
France 3G 11.81 / 6.29 / K/9 8.44 / BB/9 10.13
It’s also interesting to compare Lance McCullers, Jr.’s rehab starts before he returned from injury this year.
LMJ 4G 2.27 / 3.57 / K/9 9.44 BB/9 4.15
Comparatively, Lance’s rehab starts went much better than the other injured pitchers’ rehab games. However, McCullers’ rehab game results were generally better than what he produced when he returned to the active roster. Maybe this illustrates the limitation of looking at rehab game results, or perhaps it means that we should expect more challenging pitching results when the rehabbing pitcher reaches the majors.
Some observations:
- Arrighetti, who is expected to return first has fairly rough results in rehab. The fact that Arrighetti’s results were considerably worse in his most recent AAA start makes me wonder if he is indeed ready to make his next start at the ML level. His control in the AAA start (BB/9 7.71) was pretty bad. It’s worth noting that Arrighetti only pitched two games this year before he was injured, and he didn’t get fully stretched out. Arrighetti’s ERA and x-ERA in those 9 MLB innings were 5.39 and 3.84, respectively.
- Javier’s control has never been the greatest (career BB/9 3.88), but his rehab BB/9 of 9.58 is quite high. It remains t be seen if his next AAA rehab start yields improvement in his command and control.
- Garcia’s overall numbers which sum all rehab levels look pretty good. However, his one AAA rehab game resulted in worse results, with a 9.59 FIP and 6.75 BB/9. Since his time line is farther out, presumably his future AAA starts will produce better results.
- France’s results don’t look great, but he may be returning on a later time line than the other pitchers. He has pitched only 5 innings over 3 games.
I understand that scoring stats from rehab games may not mean very much. However, given that we expect control/command to be the last skill to return, the K/9 and BB/9 results in rehab starts may tell us how the control is progressing. I’m sure that the Astros will rely on the minor league managers and pitching coaches to evaluate the rehab starts. But, on the surface, I have skepticism about the efficacy of Arrighetti and Javier if they return to major league starts this week and next week. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Astros required additional rehab starts for them.
But the Astros are in a tough spot and really need the starters back. They might decide that Arrighetti and Javier are likely to produce better results than the replacement rookie pitchers, even if they produce results that are sub-par relative to their norm.
Since we are talking about expectations, we can also look at the Fangraphs Rest of Season projections for the returning pitchers. This may not tell us what to expect in the first game back, but it gives a rest of season impact. I have included Walter here, since he is on the IL and expected to return at some point.)
(ERA / FIP )
Arrighetti 4.44 / 4.48
Javier 4.79 / 4.84
Garcia 4.05 / 4.01
Walter 3.51 / 3.55
France (no starts expected) 4.30 / 4.32 as reliever