With José Abreu hitting .099/.156/.113 with a -21 wRC+ across 77 plate appearances, it was only a matter of time before something broke the status quo. Well, consider it broken…for now.
The Astros were willing to reduce Abreu’s playing time to help his productivity, splitting time with the left-handed Jon Singleton. But the idea felt like a short-term bandaid, especially with Abreu still struggling at the plate. Even when he drove in two runs against the Rockies during the Mexico City series last weekend, the contact wasn’t that impressive. Groundballs, in particular, remain an issue, in addition to a growing whiff issues against fastballs and breaking balls.
Again, it was only a matter of time before something had to change. I jokingly thought those two RBIs against Colorado bought Abreu another month or two. But the Astros, who are 9-19, could ill afford to wait on him to turn it when a bevy of other issues threaten its season. If it weren’t for Abreu’s hefty salary — $19.5 million in AAV — I’d think a decision would’ve been reached sooner. To the veteran first baseman’s credit, for a decision being reported as a mutual one, it couldn’t have been an easy one for him. There is surely a lot of pride on the line, so Abreu agreeing to this arrangement in the hopes of improving is noticeable. Yes, he still receives his (guaranteed) money, regardless of whether he is on the active roster, in the minors, or no longer in the organization. But you can’t ignore the man’s willingness to do what is best for his team and work on improving without further jeopardizing the season.
However, baseball is a performance-based business, so if he doesn’t show meaningful improvement in the minors, the club is much better off exploring other options. Dana Brown mentioned that he believes it isn’t a swing speed issue, but rather a timing issue. It is worth noting that a hitter in his age-37 season — like Abreu — could see their swing speed sharply decrease, as displayed by Tom Tango’s aging curve for swing speed chart below. At this point, I’d venture it is a bit of both, with the slower swing speed perhaps being the predominant issue that is influencing the timing issue. I mean, these issues could go hand in hand, at least from the outside looking in.
#Statcast Aging Curve for Swing Speed
I wouldn’t pay too much attention to very left of chart. I’d just treat it swing speed is roughly flat until roughly age 31. After that, drop is quick
Which makes sense with everything we know. We didn’t know the magnitude. Now we do. pic.twitter.com/Nh4p5jKmdL
— Tangotiger (@tangotiger) April 22, 2024
In any case, Abreu is no longer on the active roster and Joey Loperfido is now in the majors. However, the latter won’t become the full-time starter at first base, as the Astros plan to give Singleton, Loperfido, and Mauricio Dubón an opportunity at the position to see who can stick.
Jon Singleton, Joey Loperfido and Mauricio Dubón will get the run at first base in José Abreu’s absence, Joe Espada said. It does not sound like he wants to use Yainer Diaz or Victor Caratini there, but didn’t totally rule it out.
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) April 30, 2024
At this point, it ought not to be difficult to improve upon Abreu’s numbers at first base, even if the replacements themselves aren’t tearing the cover off the ball. A .376 OPS at first base up to this point in the season is by far the worst mark in baseball, with the Marlins (.476 OPS) being the only other club with sub-.500 OPS from the position this season. Whether it is ultimately Singleton, Loperfido, Dubón, Trey Cabbage, Yainer Díaz, or Victor Caratini, someone will have to stick eventually. Let’s see how this shakes out.