Let’s talk about the current status of these two Astros
Today’s column will talk about the current status of Yordan Alvarez and Hunter Brown. I could have selected any number of Astros to discuss right now. But there is a reason I selected the elite hitter and the young starting pitcher: the future performance of both players will have a lot to say about whether the Astros can compete for the playoffs.
Yordan Alvarez
Sure, most of his teammates are performing worse than Yordan. But Alvarez has been in a slump and under performing his normally elite batting stats. We would be excited for other Astros if they posted a 128 OPS+ for the season and even a 126 OPS+ for the month of May. Those are “not so bad” batting stats for Alvarez this year. But we expect more from Yordan Alvarez. He has a career OPS+ of 161. Alvarez put up a .990 OPS in 2023. His current OPS is .795.
I would argue that the Astros’ chances for contending in the weak AL West depend on Yordan Alvarez’s offense returning to elite status. When he is “right,” he can carry the offense. Together with Kyle Tucker, the two LHBs are essential pillars of the Astros’ offense. In Yordan’s current slump, this month of May has been Alvarez’s second worst month of his career.
Based on OPS, July 2021 was the worst month of Alvarez’s career. (Among other things he experienced an 0 for 22 streak in that month.)
BA / OBP / SLG / OPS
July 2021 .213 / .294 / .467/ .761
May 2024 .277 / .365 / .415 / .779
Comparing these two under performing months of Alvarez’s career, he is considerably better this month because of his ability to get on base. However, the slugging this month is worse than even his worst month in 2021.
Alvarez has also lagged behind his normally great situational hitting. RE24 measures how much a player improves the run expectancy based on the base/out state for each at bat. Last year Alvarez’s RE24 was 54 runs above average, which was 43% higher than one would expect from his wOBA. That means he was much better at improving run expectancy than we normally associate with a .415 wOBA in 2023. So far his year, Alvarez’s RE24 is 0.68 runs above average, which is one tenth of what we would expect from a player who has put up a .346 wOBA in 2024. Put another way, when he has a chance to improve run expectancy, his situational hitting and sequencing of getting on base has been below expectations.
Talking about sequencing, in 2024 Alvarez’s OPS+ is 79 with men on base and 188 with the bases empty. His OPS+ is 52 for both “late and close” and runners in scoring position. To some extent, these sequencing stats are telling a similar story to RE24. Clutch stats involve a lot or randomness and luck. RE24 also measures situational skills to some degree, and Alvarez may need to improve his approach to increase the run expectancy.
Wondering about batting order position? When he bats 2d, his OPS+ is 124. When he bats 3d, his OPS+ is 105. My guess is that the relationship between batting order position and OPS is mostly random. But I put it out there because TCB commenters had so much discussion about moving him down from No. 2 to No. 3.
Yordan’s statcast page doesn’t reveal any huge problems. He is still in the top percentiles of almost all batting measures. His hard hit percentage is down slightly. He is in the lower percentiles (30 or below) for chase rate and sweet spot launch angle, which is the main negative trend. Breaking pitches (curve balls and cutters in particular) have been a weak spot, while his run value against fastballs and sliders has been pretty good. His Barrel% is down 40% which probably explains why his SLG is lower we normally expect.
The x-stats for Yordan Alvarez indicate that he has experienced bad luck on almost all of his basic stats. For example, his x-SLG is .528 compared t his actual SLG of .447. This could be an indication that we may see regression upward in the future.
All batters, even elite players like Willy Mays or Barry Bonds, go through slumps. Alvarez’s worse month in 2021 shows that applies to him. And under performing is where Yordan currently resides.
Alvarez is better than most hitters right now. So why do I think it’s crucial that he return to his formerly elite status? When the Astros’ offense performs at a high level, Yordan is the most important contributor. In 2023, the Astros as an offense were 70 runs above average. Yordan Alvarez comprised 54% of the team runs above average. In 2024, the Astros offense is 30 runs above average, but Alvarez’s share of the offense load is now 22%.
Hunter Brown
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Hunter Brown had one of his best games on Tuesday against the Mariners. Brown has had a tough season so far. But he is vitally important for the Astros’ chances in the remainder of the season. With Urquidy and Javier on the Injured List, accompanied by the Astros paper thin starting pitching depth, Brown’s improvement is paramount. At the moment, his place in the rotation is a necessity, because there is little depth behind him. And, given the general under performance of the Astros starting pitching, his future improvement is essential.
As shown below, Hunter Brown has performed well in the month of May.
May 2024 ( 26.1 IP)
ERA 3.42
FIP / x-FIP 4.27 / 3.47
SIERA 3.42
WHIP 1.14
FB velocity 95.8
Average Exit Velocity 85.2
BABIP .250 (Compare that to his seasonal BABIP of .353)
Ground balls 53%
In Tuesday’s game, Brown gave up no barrels, and allowed an average launch angle of -5.3%, which produced a 75% ground ball rate. He produced a 13.5 K/9 with no walks, which is an effective FIP of 0.63. Brown’s stuff was very good, but the main improvement was good command and control. Besides the excellent location, his Stuff+ popped up to 130 for that outing.
If Brown can continue the improved performance he showed in May, he will be an important part of the rotation for the rest of the year.
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