Big 12 football is officially back this Saturday with a conference matchup in Ireland and another conference member starting its season. Last Word took a look at the Big 12 win totals when they were first posted in March. But with rosters finally settled heading to 2025, who is destined to clear their Big 12 win totals, and who is in for a disappointing season?
2025 Big 12 Win Totals
Arizona: Over/Under: 5.5
Quarterback Noah Fifita is back; that’s the good news. The bad news is that there still doesn’t appear to be a plan under head coach Brent Brennan. The struggles continue in Tucson.
The Pick: Under 5.5
Arizona State: Over/Under: 8.5
Last Word missed badly on this team in 2024. Kenny Dillingham should feel really good about his team. He has essentially his entire defense back and quarterback Sam Leavitt. While this team is likely due for some sort of regression, they will still be one of the better teams in the Big 12.
The Pick: Over 8.5
Baylor: Over/Under: 7.5
Last Word believes in the momentum Dave Aranda got going in the second half of the 2024 season. Expect Sawyer Robertson to put up big numbers this season in Waco. The Bears very well might find themselves playing for a Big 12 title this season.
The Pick: Over 7.5
BYU: Over/Under: 6.5
The Cougars have plenty of talent returning from the most nationally underrated team in 2024. However, the late transfer of quarterback Jake Retzlaff to Tulane left a big void without much preparation. They will be starting a true freshman quarterback, and that is going to result in plenty of growing pains in Provo.
The Pick: Under 6.5
Cincinnati: Over/Under: 6.5
This is one of the Big 12 win totals where the team’s roster talent just won’t clear the hump. They have one of the best defensive linemen in the country and a quality quarterback. But Scott Satterfield hasn’t seemed to get it all to click for the Bearcats. This team will make a bowl game but come up short of clearing Vegas’ expectations.
The Pick: Under 6.5
Colorado: Over/Under: 5.5
Head coach Deion Sanders recently shared his successful fight with bladder cancer. While that is great news for the Sanders family, on-field impacts are unknown. They lost plenty of playmakers to the NFL, and Sanders had limited contact around the program during spring and summer workouts. The Buffs take a sizeable step back in 2025.
The Pick: Under 5.5
Houston: Over/Under: 5.5
Willie Fritz greatly exceeded year one expectations in Houston. If they have figured out the quarterback position with Conner Weigman, Fritz’s build might take off faster than many anticipated. While they won’t contend for a Big 12 title, this team will likely ruin one-or-two other teams’ chances of playing for one.
The Pick: Over 5.5
Iowa State: Over/Under: 7.5
Plenty of other teams in the Big 12 have grabbed national headlines. But Iowa State is coming off its most successful regular season in program history. Rocco Becht is entering his third season as the starting quarterback for Matt Campbell. While they do have to replace two outstanding wide receivers, expect Iowa State to be found near the top of the Big 12 standings all season.
The Pick: Over 7.5
Kansas: Over/Under: 6.5
The Jayhawks get to open up a brand-new stadium in 2025. This was team that just could not find the right side of one-score games early in the season. Expect Jalon Daniels and company to be consistently more competitive but still come up just short of anything past six wins.
The Pick: Under 6.5
Kansas State: Over/Under: 8.5
Despite the Wildcats having lost four of their last five in Farmegedon, Last Word thinks they are going to kick off the season with a win over Iowa State in Ireland. That momentum will carry the Wildcats over their Big 12 win total. Avery Johnson has the breakout season many projected last year, and Chris Klieman will have this team knocking on the door of the Big 12 title game.
The Pick: Over 8.5
Oklahoma State: Over/Under: 5.5
Last Word has changed its tone on Mike Gundy. We thought there was major value on the Pokes. Gundy is a magician when expectations are low on him. But going into a season without a single quarterback who has thrown a pass in a college football game is not where a team needs to be. This could be the last season for Gundy in Stillwater.
The Pick: Under 5.5
TCU: Over/Under: 6.5
Sonny Dykes has got to be excited about this team. He has playmakers all over his defense and one of the best quarterbacks of the conference. TCU is this correspondent’s Darkhorse candidate to play for a Big 12 championship if things break right.
The Pick: Over 6.5
Texas Tech: Over/Under: 8.5
It is time. The off-season crown belongs in Lubbock, but they don’t display trophies for that. Everyone from the coaching staff, boosters, and athletic directors has said it is Big 12 title game or bust. While a season-ending injury to running back Quinten Joyner stings, the high level of talent along both lines of scrimmage will carry this team to at least a 10-win season.
The Pick: Over 8.5
UCF: Over/Under: 5.5
The fan base is fired up for the return of Scott Frost. But they shouldn’t expect much in year one. The talent on the roster is lacking, and he needs time to try to get things right for the Knights.
The Pick: Under 5.5
Utah: Over/Under: 7.5
The succession plan for Kyle Whittingham is already in place. But he wasn’t going to go out on a whimper. Anchored by the possible 2025 Joe Morehead award-winning offensive line and an upgrade at quarterback, the Utes will be back. Expect the Utes and the Red Raiders to meet in the Big 12 title game.
The Pick: Over 7.5
West Virginia: Over/Under: 5.5
Wrapping up the Big 12 win total selections involves a second head coach in a homecoming. Last Word believes that the Rich Rodriguez hire can work long-term. He has been a successful head coach at the collegiate level in recent times. A big roster flip is the norm in college football these days. But it’s going to take more than a year before the returns show up for the Mountaineers.
The Pick: Under 5.5
Main Image: Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images
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