2025 Bowl Projections After Week Five

Hello everyone, and welcome to our 2025 Bowl Projections After Week Five. What a difference seven days makes as week five more than lived up to its billing. Oregon took down Penn State in Happy Valley while Georgia lost to Alabama for a third straight time. In addition, Florida State lost in double overtime to Virginia, and LSU lost at Ole Miss. As a result, our playoff projections look vastly different than week four. In other news, Sam Pittman was let go at Arkansas following a 56-13 loss to Notre Dame. In his place is Bobby Petrino, proving that everything that’s old is new again. Speaking of the Fighting Irish, was that win enough to get them back in the top 12? Let’s find out right after a quick reminder of how things work this year.

Things are different from last season. There are 12 teams in the playoffs, and the top four still get a first-round bye. However, the winners of the Power Four conferences don’t automatically get slots 1-4. Additionally, the highest-ranked Group of Five team receives a bid. That leaves seven at-large teams. Once again, seeds 5-8 host first-round games on campus. The New Year’s Six bowls are introduced for the next round and the semi-finals. Miami, Florida, hosts the title game on January 19th. With the formalities out of the way, let’s get to our 2025 Bowl Projections After Week Five.

Friday, December 19th – (12) South Florida at (5) Texas Tech. Again, we remain fairly certain that an American Conference school will receive the Group of Five bid. However, we’re running with the Bulls again this week. On the other side of the ball, Joey McGuire and the Red Raiders move up a couple of spots. They travel to Houston on Saturday for a huge Big 12 matchup.

Saturday, December 20th- (11) Penn State at (6) Texas A&M. Mike Elko’s Aggies got past Auburn and host Mississippi State on Saturday. The Nittany Lions take a big tumble but still remain in our top 12.

Saturday, December 20th- (10) Oklahoma at (7) Alabama. It will be Michael Hawkins Jr. under center when the Sooners host Kent State Saturday. It will be a good tune-up before they face Texas next week. Guess who’s back, back again. That’s right, by virtue of their big win in Athens, the Crimson Tide rocket back into the playoff.

Saturday, December 20th- (9)- Indiana at (8) Georgia. Fernando Mendoza has cemented himself as a Heisman contender. The Hoosiers followed up their big win over Illinois by winning at Iowa. We didn’t drop the Bulldogs too much because they have several chances to get some big wins on their remaining schedule.

Goodyear Cotton Bowl: Wednesday, December 31st- (6) Texas A&M vs. (3) Oregon-The Ducks move up a couple of spots after that huge road win over Penn State.

Capital One Orange Bowl: Thursday, January 1st- (7) Alabama vs. (2) Miami– The Hurricanes have a huge one this Saturday as they travel to Florida State.

Rose Bowl Game: Thursday, January 1st– (9) Indiana vs. (1) Ohio State– Ryan Day’s club took care of Washington on the road. These two schools don’t meet in the regular season, so why not in the playoffs?

Allstate Sugar Bowl: Thursday, January 1st- (5) Texas Tech vs. (4) Ole Miss- The Rebels rocket into our projections after their win over LSU. These two teams last met in the 2022 Texas Bowl, in which the Red Raiders won 42-25.

Semi-Finals and Final-

VRBO Fiesta Bowl: Thursday, January 8th- (4) Ole Miss vs. (1) Ohio State- These two schools have never met on the gridiron.

Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl: Friday, January 9th- (3) Oregon vs. (2) Miami- You have to go back to 1958 for the only time they’ve met. Miami won by the odd score of 2-0.

College Football National Championship: Monday, January 19th- (3) Oregon vs. (1) Ohio State– We’re going with a possible third meeting between the Buckeyes and Ducks in our final.

If you are scoring at home, or if you are by yourself, that’s five SEC teams and three Big Ten squads in the playoff. As a result, you’ll notice we don’t have enough SEC teams to fill all their slots. Continuing with our 2025 Bowl Projections After Week Five, let’s move to the games around the New Year.

Once again, this season, legacy Pac-12 teams can be slotted to games featuring that league. That goes away next year when the conference starts fresh with new teams. As always, we’ll try not to pair them with teams they’ve already played. Furthermore, with it being 2025, the SEC plays in the Mayo Bowl while the Big Ten goes to the Las Vegas Bowl. Furthermore, for the second time in three years, the Bahamas Bowl won’t be played in the island paradise. No word yet on what a replacement game might be called.

Valero Alamo Bowl: December 30th- Big 12 vs. Pac-12- Iowa State vs. USC+– The Trojans go to San Antonio as a legacy Pac-12 school.

Reliaquest Bowl: December 31st- SEC vs. Big Ten- Michigan vs. LSU- The Tigers fall out of the playoff this week and head to Tampa.

Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl: December 31st- ACC/Notre Dame vs. Pac-12- SMU vs. Arizona+– The Wildcats go to El Paso as a legacy Pac-12 member.

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl: December 31st- Big Ten vs. SEC- Nebraska vs. Texas- It’s the same matchup, just in a different game this week.

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl: December 31st- Big Ten vs. Pac-12- Illinois vs. Arizona State+– The Sun Devils go to Vegas as a legacy Pac-12 team.

Duke’s Mayo Bowl: January 2nd- ACC/Notre Dame vs. SEC- Vanderbilt vs. Georgia Tech– Haynes King and the Yellow Jackets versus Diego Pavia, sign us up for this matchup now.

Holiday Bowl: January 2nd- ACC vs. Pac-12- Florida State vs. Utah+– This will be the first time this game has ever been played in January. The Utes go as a legacy Pac-12 team.

Moving on with our 2025 Bowl Projections After Week Five, let’s move to the season’s initial games.

LA Bowl Hosted by Gronk: December 13th- Mountain West vs. Pac-12- Boise State vs. Washington+- The Huskies go to LA as a legacy Pac-12 squad.

Let’s finish up our 2025 Bowl Projections After Week Five with the games right after the big holiday.

Pop-Tarts Bowl: December 27th- ACC/Notre Dame vs. Big 12- Notre Dame vs. TCU- We’re slotting the Fighting Irish here this week but keeping a close eye on their playoff chances.

Former Bahamas Bowl: Conference USA vs. MAC – Florida International vs. Miami (Ohio). We don’t know the title or where the game will be played, but we have a matchup.

While it’s not quite as massive as last week, there are still several big games this weekend. One of the biggest Alabama hosting Vanderbilt. It’s the first time since 1937 that these two schools have met as Top 25 teams. In addition, the Crimson Tide will be looking for some revenge for last year. Besides that, Notre Dame hosts Boise State, and Virginia travels to Louisville. Thanks for checking out our 2025 Bowl Projections After Week Five here at Last Word On College Football.

Main Photo: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images