Baylor opens the 2025 season at home against Auburn in a marquee Big 12-SEC matchup. The Bears return most of their offense, led by fourth-year QB Sawyer Robertson and a power running game, and they’ll look to energize the home crowd at McLane Stadium. Baylor coach Dave Aranda’s defense (3-3-5 scheme) must also handle Auburn’s explosive playmakers. Auburn, meanwhile, has a new-look offense under coach Hugh Freeze and rising QB Jackson Arnold (an Oklahoma transfer). A loss could put Freeze’s seat in danger, while Baylor, riding last year’s momentum, embraces a “Why not us?” attitude (baylorlariat.com). This balanced preview examines key matchups and storylines for both teams.
Baylor’s Offense: Run First, Keep It Balanced
Baylor projects to ride its ground game. Last season, the Bears finished seventh in Big 12 rushing (2,324 yards and 25 TDs) thanks to the tandem of Bryson Washington and Dawson Pendergrass. Pendergrass suffered a foot injury in fall camp and is out for 2025, thrusting Washington into more of an every-down role. Washington’s running style is physical. “When he gets hit, he feels good,” Aranda said. “When he delivers hits, he feels better. He looks for those contacts” (theintelligencer.net). Auburn must account for his physicality. Baylor also added 4-star true freshman Caden Knighten for depth (247sports.com), but the Bears will be heavily one-dimensional if defenses stack the box.
At QB, redshirt senior Robertson brings continuity. Under OC Jake Spavital, he helped lift Baylor’s scoring offense from outside the top 100 to No. 19 nationally. Robertson threw for 3,071 yards and 28 touchdowns last year, ranking seventh in QBR among FBS quarterbacks. He should be comfortable in Year 2 of Spavital’s Air Raid and will test Auburn’s defense early.
Film study from late last season, along with spring ball clips, highlights Robertson’s growth in leadership and improved downfield accuracy. However, questions remain in the passing game. Last season, Baylor’s receivers struggled to create separation against man coverage, and that must change in 2025. Texas State transfer Kole Wilson brings needed experience, but the unit’s route running will be under the spotlight.
Expect Baylor to keep Auburn honest by mixing play-action, RPOs, and draws behind a veteran offensive line. That tempo will be critical to prevent Auburn’s defense from settling in. For Baylor, sustained rhythm and execution on offense are as important as explosive plays.
Auburn’s Offense: Dynamic Playmakers and a New QB
Auburn’s offense is brimming with playmaking talent. The Tigers return WR Cam Coleman (a 5-star recruit and All-SEC returnee) and Eric Singleton Jr. (a Georgia Tech transfer who posted 700+ yards each of the past two seasons). This receiver room looks like one of the best groups in the country because they combine elite traits across the board. When you watch the film, the “why” is clear. Coleman brings length, body control, and the ability to win contested catches, consistently coming down with the ball in traffic. Singleton Jr. adds vertical speed that forces defenses to back off, opening space underneath. Together, they stretch coverages and create constant stress for defensive backs. That blend makes Auburn’s passing attack explosive and one of the most difficult matchups Baylor will face all season. Singleton, despite a thigh bruise in camp, is expected to play and contribute, giving Auburn two big targets downfield.
The question mark comes in the backfield. Auburn lost longtime starter Jarquez Hunter, who gave the Tigers proven production and consistency. Without him, the rushing attack turns to senior Damari Alston and junior Jeremiah Cobb. Both have run and catch abilities, but neither has carried the load against top competition. Until one of them shows they can be a reliable feature back, Auburn’s run game remains unproven and vulnerable against disciplined fronts.
Protecting these weapons is a revamped offensive line that could be one of the best in the country. Auburn’s new tackles (Xavier Chaplin and Mason Murphy) join returning guards Dillon Wade and Jeremiah Wright, anchored by center Connor Lew. Lew (a projected All-American) praised how quickly the new pieces learned the offense. “I think the biggest thing is just the combination of talent as well as how well we’ve meshed so far this season,” Lew said (si.com). An up-front machine should give Arnold more time. Coaches have praised his athleticism and pocket accuracy in camp (auburnobserver.com). He must still show he can minimize mistakes after a rocky Oklahoma career, but Auburn is betting his dual-threat ability will ignite the offense. How quickly Arnold settles in will be key. Baylor’s defense should sell out to stop Auburn’s run game and force him to beat them with quick reads.
Baylor’s Defense: Aranda’s Unit Stretched Thin
Defensively, Baylor will lean on Aranda’s scheming to slow Auburn. The Bears struggled in coverage last year. They finished 11th in Big 12 scoring defense, and losses in the secondary add pressure. Starting corner and versatile slot defender Carl Williams IV has been sidelined by a knee injury and is unlikely to play (si.com). Losing him in the secondary is a major problem for Baylor because it strips the defense of one of its most reliable cover players.
On film, Auburn’s receivers already create separation with size and speed, and without that presence in coverage, the Bears are forced to lean on less proven options. That puts them in constant mismatch situations against Coleman and Singleton Jr., who thrive when defenders give them space. The absence magnifies Baylor’s biggest weakness because it reduces flexibility in coverages and makes it harder to disguise pressure without exposing the back end. Expect Aranda to dial up exotic blitzes and stunts to confuse Arnold and bracket Coleman. Safeties like senior Devyn Bobby and nickel defenders DJ Coleman and Kendrick Simpkins must step up in coverage.
On the line, Baylor returns a deep front but may be undersized for SEC power. But safety Bobby said the defense’s main goal is clear. “We want to stop the run. That’s every week. Each team, we’re trying to stop the run, and we want them to pass more”(si.com). The front seven must hold the point of attack, and linebackers like Keaton Thomas and Travion Barnes bring returning experience. The loss of Williams could force Baylor to rotate more in the secondary, but the defense will try to mask that with pressure. If the Bears can disrupt Arnold, they might throw Auburn’s timing off. A key will be forcing three-and-outs, giving Baylor’s offense shorter fields to work with.
Keys to the Game
For Baylor, the formula is straightforward. The Bears must control tempo with their run game and keep Auburn’s playmakers on the sideline. Washington’s downhill style has to set the tone, and Baylor’s offensive line must create consistent push. Sustaining drives also protects a secondary that enters short-handed. Robertson needs help from receivers who can separate against man coverage. If Baylor establishes rhythm and avoids third-and-long situations, the Bears can lean on Aranda’s pressure schemes to force Arnold into mistakes.
For Auburn, the key is flipping that script. The Tigers need their defensive front to bottle up Washington early, putting Robertson in passing downs where Baylor struggled last season. That would allow Auburn’s athletic secondary to press and disrupt timing. On offense, Arnold’s job is to get the ball quickly to Coleman and Singleton Jr. and let them stress Baylor’s thin coverage unit. Auburn’s offensive line, projected among the best in the SEC, has to give Arnold clean pockets so he can avoid forcing high-risk throws. If Auburn’s defense holds up against Baylor’s tempo and its offense hits explosive plays, the Tigers can seize control.
This matchup boils down to execution in the trenches and which quarterback adapts better under pressure. Baylor’s path runs through ball control and defensive creativity. Auburn’s path is about unleashing its perimeter talent while limiting mistakes. The team that wins those battles will likely walk out of Waco with a season-defining victory.
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