Big 12 Week Eight Winners: Ranked Road Troubles?
Just like a good coach, we need to take accountability here at Last Word. The week seven winners were a flop. Both against the spread and moneyline selections went 3-4. The totals were even worse at 2-5. But the lock is still treating us well as TCU and Kansas State poured on the points late. We studied the film and are ready for a bounce back. Three of the six games include ranked teams going on the road. Which Big 12 week eight winner is on upset alert? All lines are courtesy of FanDuel.
Season Results
Moneyline: 56-15
Against The Spread: 36-26
Totals: 27-35
Locks: 5-2
Big 12 Week Eight Winners: Ranked Road Troubles?
Arizona At Houston (+1.5)
Regardless of whether Arizona would have held on against BYU last week, Last Word just thinks this Houston team is better. In Willie Fritz’s team’s five wins, they have an average margin of defeat of 18.8 points. It will be an 11 am local kickoff for these teams, so there will be a noticeable lack of juice in the building. With Arizona reeling off, letting an upset get away, Houston takes advantage and cruises to an easy, low-scoring victory.
Moneyline: Houston ATS: Houston Total 46.5: Under
Baylor At TCU (-2.5)
If you are looking for a game with minimal defense on the Big 12 week eight winners slate, look no further than Fort Worth, Texas. In the last four consecutive meetings between Baylor and TCU, the final score has had point totals of 58, 57, 59, and 71 in 2024. The two best quarterbacks in the Big 12, Sawyer Robertson and Josh Hoover, will have a field day in this under-the-radar rivalry. In Baylor’s five games against P4 opponents, the final score total for their games surpassed 62 four times. If it isn’t obvious by now, the lock of the week comes on the over in this game. As for who is going to win? Whoever gets the ball last will win this game. The home team typically gets those types of breaks in a shootout, so we will take Sonny Dykes’ team to win.
Moneyline: TCU ATS: TCU Total 65.5: Over (lock)
West Virginia (+7.5) At UCF
Outside of the Pitt victory, it has been a rough season for Rich Rodriguez in his first season back in Morgantown. UCF has shown they are a competent team in Scott Frost’s return season. But despite questions at the quarterback position, the Mountaineers are coming off a bye week. They will have something schemed up for the Knights. However, it won’t be for an outright victory. That hook is the difference as UCF gets the win by seven points.
Moneyline: UCF ATS: West Virginia Total 46.5: Under
#7 Texas Tech (-7.5) At Arizona State
The afternoon and evening slate are with the first of three ranked teams on the week eight Big 12 winners card go on the road. Joey McGuire’s team is the talk of the conference right now. The Sun Devils have not had a single win against a P4 team that would inspire any confidence. The defensive line is going to be a major problem for Kenny Dillingham’s offense. Texas Tech continues to remain unbeaten after its trip to Tempe.
Moneyline: Texas Tech ATS: Texas Tech Total 51.5: Over
#24 Cincinnati At Oklahoma State (+21.5)
We can cut to the chase in this one. Cincinnati isn’t losing this game. But this is a quintessential let down spot. The Bearcats cracked the top 25 rankings for the first time since 2022. Scott Satterfield’s team welcomes a potent Baylor squad to Nipper next week before facing Utah. Oklahoma State fans will still show up for this one. But the Bearcats were not sharp last week, and expect this game to look similar. Except it’s a late score by Oklahoma State to kick open the back door and only lose by 21.
Moneyline: Cincinnati ATS: Oklahoma State Total 57.5: Under
#23 Utah At #15 BYU (+3.5)
Finally, the last kickoff of the week eight Big 12 winners brings us a ranked vs. ranked Holy War. The home team currently holds a two-game winning streak against the Utes after losing the previous nine matchups. Utah has looked dominate against everyone not named Texas Tech. All signs suggest Utah should come away with the victory in this one. However, if we give some credence to BYU having a letdown against Arizona because of looking ahead to this one, BYU will be ready. Last year’s game had Utah’s athletic director going nuclear at the end of the game. Expect some more “out of left field” shenanigans in this one. A true freshman quarterback shouldn’t beat a Kyle Whittingham team. But it’s happening this Saturday.
Moneyline: BYU ATS: BYU Total 49.5: Under
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