Big 12 Week Five Winners: Who Is For Real?

The schedule in the Big 12 turns to the first full week of conference games for all teams playing in week five (with one exception). In recapping last week, we continue our strong start to the season against the spread as the Big 12 week four winners were 6-2. Now, we missed Tulsa getting the outright win against Oklahoma State, so Moneyline picks were 5-3. Totals did not make up any ground on the season as they went 4-4, including our totals lock missing in Waco. This week, the Big 12 week five winners include plenty of opportunities for teams to cement their position as contenders for the conference crown. All lines are courtesy of FanDuel.

Moneyline: 41-8

Against The Spread: 25-15

Totals: 17-23

Locks: 2-1

Possibly the best matchup of the Big 12 week five winners slate is taking place Friday night in the desert. The defending Big 12 champs welcome a TCU team that is starting to turn some heads. The Horned Frogs’ offense is led by quarterback Josh Hoover, who is putting together an early Heisman campaign. Kenny Dillingham’s team has been winning more so on the heels of an experienced defense than an explosive offense. While TCU’s defense is improved, Arizona State will still be able to score. However, in a close game, Hoover leads the Horned Frogs down the field in the waning minutes to stay undefeated.

Oregon State is not a good football team right now. The 0-4 Beavers’ closest margin of defeat was 9 points in a home game against Fresno State. It appears that Houston might be slightly ahead of schedule for a typical Willie Fritz rebuild. This one won’t be close. Normally, covering two touchdowns on the road for a Friday night can be a tricky spot. It won’t be tricky for the Coogs in Corvallis.

Cincinnati At Kansas (-5.5)

is healthy and is protecting the football with a touchdown-to-INT ratio of 6:1. We still don’t know much about Cincinnati. They probably should have been Nebraska in week one, but haven’t played anyone of significance yet. But Lance Leipold has his team humming right now and should be able to cover the spread at home against the Bearcats.

This truly is the last stand for Kansas State. Not just for their season, but for anyone (including Last Word) to see them for what they should be. Their roster is significantly more talented than UCF’s currently constructed roster. A home game after a bye week is a great antidote for a team needing to get right. The defense still has a ton of holes, so the Knights will still move the ball. But, with desperation on their side, the Wildcats save their season.

In addition to getting whooped by Kansas last week, West Virginia’s entire offense is injured. That is only some slight hyperbole, as their starting quarterback, top three running backs, two of their starting wide receivers, a starting tight end, and three starting offensive linemen are hurt. If that doesn’t sting enough, they welcome in a Utah team looking to re-group after getting humbled by Texas Tech last week. It isn’t too often Last Word fires off two locks, but this and the Houston game are prime opportunities for the Big 12 week five winners to have the designation.

Times are really tough in Stillwater. After losing 11 of his last 12 games to FBS football teams, including an embarrassing home loss to Tulsa, Mike Gundy was fired on Tuesday. A three-loss team from 2024 has only looked worse so far in 2025. Now comes a high-powered offense from Baylor. Dave Aranada’s team needs a win after dropping its Big 12 opener to Arizona State. They should get it without any resistance.

This matchup in Ames is the sneaky good game found on the Big 12 week five winners card. The Wildcats have been a bit of a surprise this season. Meanwhile, Iowa State currently sits atop the latest Big 12 power rankings and is coming off a bye week. If we were asked to set this line, we would have put Iowa State somewhere as a 9.5-point favorite. So, Vegas is trying to tell us something. The Cyclones are still the more talented team, but Matt Campbell’s team better not take Arizona lightly.

Colorado’s offense has not been explosive or dynamic this year. BYU’s defense ranks second in the FBS in yards allowed per game and first in scoring. Colorado is only converting third down 39% of the time. BYU has only allowed opponents to convert on third down 22% of the time. This is a clear mismatch leaning towards Kalani Sitake’s team. BYU will grind out the clock with a low-scoring but convincing win.

Main Photo: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images