Blue chip ratio shows why despite portal losses, Texas A&M could compete in 2024

The Aggies have seen a lot of talent leave in the past two years, but even more remains.

We’re coming out of the quietest part of the college football offseason as outlets start to ramp up their previews of 2024. Chief among those each year is Bud Elliott’s Blue Chip Ratio rankings, which highlights the teams who have recruited at least 50% four- and five-star players over the past four years.

In simple terms: To win the national championship, college football teams need to sign more four- and five-star recruits (AKA “Blue Chips”) than two- and three-star players over the previous four recruiting classes.

Given the rise of the transfer portal in recent seasons, Bud now publishes two rankings: one that only accounts for high school recruiting, and one that incorporates portal movement. To nobody’s surprise, the Aggies are in significantly different spots on these two lists.

Blue Chip Ratio (HS recruiting only)

1. Ohio State, 90%
2. Alabama, 88%
3. Georgia, 80%
4. Texas A&M, 79%
5. Oregon, 76%
6. Oklahoma, 73%
7. Texas, 72%
8. LSU, 70%
9. Notre Dame, 67%
10. Clemson, 64%
11. Florida, 63%
T-12. Miami, 61%
T-12. Penn State, 61%
14. USC, 59%
15. Michigan, 56%
16. Auburn, 53%

Blue Chip Ratio (HS+portal)

1. Ohio State, 86%
2. Alabama, 82%
3. Georgia, 77%
4. Oregon, 71%
5. Texas, 70%
6. LSU, 66%
7. Clemson, 64%
T-8. Oklahoma, 63%
T-8. Notre Dame, 63%
T-8. Texas A&M, 63%
11. Florida, 58%
12. Penn State, 57%
13. Miami, 56%
T-14. USC, 54%
T-14. Michigan, 54%
16. Florida State, 53%

Do the Ags take a bit of a step back when portal movement is entered into the equation? Yes, and this shouldn’t be a surprise. Purely from a recruiting rankings perspective, A&M has lost more to the portal than any other program over the past two seasons, including multiple former five-star recruits.

But more important than what the Aggies have lost is what they’ve kept. Even after portal activity, there are only seven teams in the country who boast a higher percentage of blue chip talent than A&M.

While A&M has seen it’s fair share of struggles in recent seasons, a lack of talent was never the issue, and despite some notable departures, it shouldn’t be in 2024 either. But that talent has to be put into a culture and a scheme that gets the most of out it, which is what new head coach Mike Elko is tasked with achieving.

With Elko as defensive coordinator from 2018-2021, the Aggies had a .708 winning percentage. In the two years he was gone, that win percentage plummeted to .480. Meanwhile, he became only the second Duke head coach to win 8+ games in consecutive seasons since WW2. Suffice to say, there’s plenty of reason to believe that he and his new staff are better-equipped to take advantage of their talented roster than the previous A&M staff.

Will that lead to results on the field? Only time will tell. But for Aggies who are optimistic about the team’s chances this fall, there’s a lot more to pin your hopes on than blind faith.