Can Clemson Get Back in the Win Column at Home?

Clemson has not won a home game in two months now.  Last week’s loss to Duke was the Tigers’ third straight in Memorial Stadium. It was also their seventh straight loss to a power conference opponent at home. Their last chance to end the streak this season will be this weekend, when Florida State makes its visit.

The last time the Seminoles traveled to Clemson was in 2023, as they got a win in overtime, 31-24. The home team has not won in this matchup since the 2021 season. Both programs were front-runners in the ACC for years and have represented the conference on the national stage multiple times. Now, both teams are striving to regain their former glory.

When Florida State defeated Clemson in 2023, it was en route to an undefeated regular season and ACC Championship. Since that historic season, the Seminoles have struggled to regain that level of success.

The following season, Mike Norvell’s team won just two games. This season, it seemed like things turned around quickly when Florida State came out firing in the first three weeks. The Noles beat a top-ten team in Alabama before putting up 77 and 66 points in consecutive games. Things went sour again, once conference play began, though.

The Seminoles started 0-4 in ACC games. This gave them a nine-game conference losing streak, dating back to the 2024 season. They finally broke the streak last week, though, with a 42-7 win over Wake Forest. Despite the struggles this season, Florida State has managed to put up some impressive numbers on both sides of the ball.

Offensively, the Noles rank first in the conference in scoring, rushing yards per game, and total offense. That number one ranking in total offense also extends to the whole FBS, as the Seminoles average 510.5 total yards per game. They are also in the top ten in the FBS in each of those categories.

Much of what the offense does is based on the run game of Florida State. A large part of that run game is the quarterback, Thomas Castellanos. The Boston College transfer has thrown for 1,878 yards and ten touchdowns. His best attribute, though, is his ability to run the ball effectively. Castellanos is the team’s second leading rusher with 89 carries for 328 yards and six touchdowns.

The success of the Noles’ offense is largely based on how well they can run the ball, especially with Castellanos. That opens their vertical play-action passing game, which can be just as dangerous if Castellanos gets comfortable.

On the opposite side of the ball, Florida State ranks in the top five in the ACC in scoring defense, total defense, and pass defense. As expected from a Seminoles defense, there is speed all over the field. Defensive back Earl Little, Jr, has been the guy to do a bit of everything for this unit. Little is the leading tackler on the team with 52 total, along with two tackles for loss, four interceptions, and two forced fumbles.

To beat this defense, the Clemson offense must be more than one-dimensional. They have to force the Noles to truly defend every part of the field. The Tigers also have to keep their defense guessing with a balanced attack. The main objective should be keeping the Seminoles’ offense off the field as much as possible.

If Clemson wants to get back in the win column at home, it’s going to start with the defense stopping the Florida State rushing attack. The better the Seminoles run the ball, the better they perform overall on both sides of the ball.

The ground game allows the Noles to control the clock and the pace of the game. Also, everything their offense wants to do is predicated on how well they can run the ball. The Tigers must eliminate explosives in the run game and prevent Castellanos from getting going with his legs. If Clemson can force Florida State’s play callers to drop Castellanos straight back, it will give the Tigers the advantage.

Offensively, Garrett Riley and Cade Klubnik have to be ready to attack every part of the field. The offense has to stretch the defense with runs to the outside, then go between the tackles. They must throw screens and flat routes early to get the Noles’ defensive backs to play the short pass aggressively. Then, when the deep shots are open, Klubnik has to take them without hesitation. The offense must still be mindful, though, not to give the ball back to the Florida State offense too quickly.

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