In all of college football, you won’t find two more different programs than Tennessee and Iowa. The Vols and Hawkeyes meet in the 2024 Cheez-It Citrus Bowl on Monday, and the contrast is immediately apparent. Iowa brings the nation’s fifth-ranked defense into Orlando to face Josh Heupel‘s hyper-speed spread offense. While the Vols have lacked consistency in scoring this season, they still have the ability to score fast and score a lot in Heupel’s offense. It’ll be a fun game for the fans to watch, as this game delivers a classic high-powered offense against a stout and immovable defense.
2024 Cheez-It Citrus Bowl Preview
The Game
What: 2024 Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Who: Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Where: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida
When: Monday, January 1st, 2024, 1:00 p.m. ET
Coverage: ABC (Dave Fleming, Brock Osweiler, Kayla Burton)
Line: Tennessee -6.5, O/U 35.5
How We Got Here
Iowa enters this game with 10 wins on the season. It’s hard to win 10 games in a college football season, that’s a fact. But it’s easy to nit-pick Iowa’s wins. While their defense is legitimately great, they’ve only faced one team, Utah State, with an offense ranked higher than 63 this season. Five of their 13 opponents ranked 80th or worse nationally in offense. Eight of those 10 wins were by ten points or less, including three decided by three points or less. Moreover, Iowa’s offense ranked 133rd (out of 133) nationally in offense. And this while playing in the worst division in college football.
Iowa’s offense is an inspiration for online ridicule and social media memes and does a great program and a great defense a great disservice. The Cheez-It Citrus Bowl provides Iowa with an opportunity to put those nit-pickers to rest with a marquee win over an SEC program with a top-notch offense on Monday.
For Tennessee, things aren’t much better. The Vols followed up a 10-win 2022 campaign with a disappointing eight-win 2023. The vaunted Vols offense struggled at times, particularly with consistency and converting in the red zone. The Vols’ offense is 16th nationally in total offense, but only 39th nationally in scoring offense. Tennessee had no real signature wins in 2023 and had an ugly loss to Florida early in the season. The Vols defense, especially the secondary, was also wildly inconsistent this year. They did, however, show improvement from last season, finishing this year 40th in overall defense and 37th in scoring defense. Tennessee can tip the scale from mediocre to success with a solid win against a ten-win Big Ten team on Monday.
Business First
In today’s bowl game environment, you must address business first. And that’s about the opt-outs due to transfer or draft preparation.
For Tennessee, three things stand out. First, quarterback Joe Milton will skip the game to prepare for the upcoming draft. Highly touted freshman Nico Iamaleava will get his first start in orange. Many see this as a sneak peek at the next three years of Tennessee’s offensive leader. Tennessee’s top two rushers, Jaylen Wright (NFL Draft) and Jabari Small (NFL Draft) will miss the game as well. Sophomore sensation Dylan Sampson will lead Tennessee’s 14th-ranked rushing attack.
On defense, the Vols will be without six defensive backs who either started or figured in the back-end rotation this season. At this point, it’s anyone’s guess as to who will be in the secondary for Tennessee on Monday. Look for Will Brooks, Andre Turrentine, and Jourdan Thomas to get significant playing time in Tennessee’s secondary. Edge rusher Tyler Baron was the only other significant opt-out (transfer) for Tennessee’s defense.
For Iowa, the impact of business is much less. Only three impact players, Diante Vines (WR), Brendan Deasfernandes (DB), and Anterio Thompson (DL) are expected to be absent for the Hawkeyes.
Clearly, Iowa enters the game with the edge in team stability.
The Match-Up
And that stability will help Iowa, especially on defense. Tennessee will spread the Hawkeye defense out and test both their speed and endurance. Look for the Vols to utilize the tight ends more in this game than they have in the regular season, especially out of the H-back position in the backfield. Also, look for Tennessee to use their receiver depth in the rushing attack to take a little of the pressure off of Sampson in the backfield. It’s unlikely that Heupel will want to run Iamaleava too much in his first start against a defense like Iowa. Milton averaged over six carries per game — Heupel will likely look to keep Iamaleave in the pocket unless absolutely necessary.
Clearly, the key to this game is whether Tennessee can establish a rushing attack. If the Vols can consistently move the chains on the ground, it’s hard to see a path for an Iowa win. Forcing the young quarterback into obvious and must-have passing situations is what Iowa feasts on. The Hawkeyes had two interception returns-for-touchdowns against a first-time starting quarterback against Kentucky in their 21-0 bowl win last season.
On offense, it’s much the same story. Tennessee’s defense matches up well against Iowa, with quarterback Deacon Hill operating at only a 49% completion rate with four touchdowns and five interceptions this season. Expect Iowa to rely heavily on the rush, which is what Tennessee is best at defending. Even with a complete retool in the defensive secondary, one must question whether Iowa’s 133rd-ranked offense can muster enough points to overcome Tennessee on New Year’s Day.
The Last Word
Tennessee plays it safe on offense and doesn’t make any mistakes on special teams to allow Iowa to steal points. The Vols are good enough on the ground to free up space for Iamaleava. Iowa can’t take advantage of Tennessee’s patchwork defense. The Vols turn mediocre into success.
Tennessee 24
Iowa 13
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