Previewing the biggest game of the season with advanced stats

Howdy and welcome back to Fun With Numbers, where we talk about Texas A&M football through the lens of advanced stats, because those generate positivity, which we need leading up to kickoff, which leads to a lot of negativity, that we need to counteract with an advanced stats preview before the next game, which…

Last week was rough. I didn’t think the Auburn offense was going to be explosive enough to give the Aggies issues, and they put up 21 points before the Aggies knew what was happening. The offense rebounded in the second and third quarters, but a 28% success rate in the fourth prevented them from putting the game away and a lack of pressure by the Front 7 allowed the Auburn offense to continue to thrive.

The positive? The Crimson Tide got smashed in Norman and that means that the final game of the season for the Aggies is still for a trip to Atlanta. I could spend a lot of time dissecting this game. I would love to honestly, this is the first time I’ve ever written a FWN for the Lonestar Showdown. I could spend a lot of time just talking about how crazy it is that this game is back for the first time since I stood in the stands as a student and watched Justin Tucker ruin my year, and the stakes are even higher than I assumed they’d be. But it’s a holiday week and I am extremely short on time, and you’re here for numbers. So let’s talk numbers.

What Do We Know?

A lot has been made over the Texas Longhorns schedule and how little they’ve been tested, their lone loss being to the only school in the SP+ Top 25 they’ve played all season, but the fact remains most metrics have them as a Top 3 team. The Aggies will be a home dog for the first time all season, the SP+ projects the Aggies to lose by about 6 points, and the FEI predicts a nearly 11 point loss for the good guys. Let’s take a closer look.

Aggie Offense vs Horn Defense

Tested or not, the Horn defense is going to be a tough out for Marcel Reed and the rest of the Aggie offense, even with some of the improvement we’ve seen with the Aggie QB as a passer. Much has been made about the talented Front 7, and it is stout and plenty able to bring pressure on opposing QBs, but the secondary has put up exceptional numbers this season. The Aggies should be able to move the ball on the ground with some success, but Reed is going to have to continue to be cautious against a team that has 17 interceptions (2nd in the country) thus far.

Aggie Defense vs Horn Offense

Despite bringing back quite a bit offensively in 2024, the Horns haven’t been quite as lethal on this side of the ball as many expected them to be. Like the Aggies, they lost a lot of expected production in the RB room, and haven’t had much of a home run threat on the ground. Ewers hasn’t been the most efficient passer in his draft season, but they’ve still been plenty explosive and will certainly test this Aggie defense which has struggled to keep things in front of them and make tackles in space.

So What’s the Verdict?

That’s a lot of orange in the charts. If you were looking for a secret stat to boost optimism, I don’t have much to show you. Bevo is good this year, they brought back a good bit from a team that was a few plays away from a national championship appearance in 2023. But they’re not invincible, and the Aggies have looked capable of beating anyone, and losing to anyone, at various points this season.

They’re back home at Kyle Field and the energy will be unmatched. Can the Aggies generate a rushing attack between Reed’s legs, Daniels, and whatever else has been cobbled together to form a running back room? Can a defense that has looked completely different in recent weeks get back to the one we saw against Missouri or the second half of the LSU game? Can the Aggies provide a test that many feel the Horns haven’t had outside of hosting Georgia in October? We’re going to find out. And I can’t wait.

My Prediction: I’ve been on a bit of a cold streak here obviously, and I’ve come along way personally in eliminating the superstitions that anything I say or do has any actual effect on the outcome of the game itself. As I said, I think the team from Austin is a really good one, maybe the best they’ve had in over a decade. And I still think that the Aggies are good enough to not only find a way to hang with them… but also beat them. The Aggies will run the ball well, and Reed will do just enough through the air to keep drives alive. The defense is going to give up some big plays, but they’re also going to get home on some pressure as well.

Aggies win 27-23.

If you ain’t in my jersey…

Final Notes

As always, thanks for reading along. Believe it or not, this was the last game of the regular season. It’s been an interesting first year for Elko, but I’m really excited where this team is at and where they are headed. I hope we’re back to talk about a matchup with the Georgia Bulldogs and who knows what else, but regardless, it’s been fun. Take care and happy holidays.

• Bcftoys.com for Brian Fremeau’s FEI data and other fun projects from him.
• ESPN.com is the home for all of Bill Connelly’s SP+ info, including the Returning Production data. You’ll need to subscribe to ESPN+ for most of his stuff these days.
• CollegeFootballData.com is a great site for data and charts that you can download and play with on your own time, in case Fun With Numbers isn’t filling that statistical void in your life. Most of my data comes from here.

Questions? Comments? Criticisms? You know where to leave ‘em.