Big Ten West implications are on the line in Madison this weekend as Iowa will travel to Camp Randall Stadium for a huge matchup with Wisconsin. The Badgers currently hold the lead in the West Division, but an Iowa victory would tie the two at the top. The head-to-head victory that the winner of the Heartland Trophy will earn could very well be the difference at the end of November.
The Opponent: Dairy Raid
This is not the same Wisconsin team we’re used to seeing. Luke Fickell and offensive coordinator Phil Longo have installed an air raid offense in Madison. They brought in SMU transfer quarterback Tanner Mordecai, and have a very solid receiver room. Contrary to its name, the air raid introduces running concepts that can make a team multi-dimensional.
So far for Wisconsin, it has done more for their run game. The Badgers are the top rushing team in the conference, and 18th nationally. They’ve been averaging 203 rush yards per game and over five yards per attempt. That’s an improvement on last year by nearly 25 yards per game. Through the air, Wisconsin is only passing for an average of 200 yards per game and Mordecai has three touchdowns and three interceptions.
The different look for Wisconsin this year is how they run the ball. This new implementation of a spread offense allows the Badgers to stretch defenses, use elements of the run-pass option and still remain a physical running team. Instead of lining up under center, Longo will put his quarterback in shotgun and spread out his tight ends and receivers. On the snap, the offensive line zone blocks as if it were I-formation. What this allows the Badgers to do is create zone blocking advantages with a lighter box, but still have the opportunity to throw the ball if the defense plays the run.
When Wisconsin Has The Ball
Other than Penn State, Wisconsin is going to put the most pressure on Iowa’s defense to date this season. It will force them to defend a powerful run game while respecting the passing capabilities of a spread offense. Mordecai has just three touchdowns this year. But he excels at the short passing game that’s set up by the RPO style of their spread offense. On passes of less than nine yards, Mordecai has completed 81 of 99 attempts for 547 yards. When the defense crashes on the run, Mordecai can pull the football and dish it to his short-route receivers. If the defenders stay home, the ball can be kept on the ground behind an offensive line-blocking zone.
The Hawkeye defense has been better defending the pass this year than they have the run. It’s seventh nationally in defensive Expected Points Added (EPA) per game and has a 35% success rate allowed which is 20th nationally. Against the run, Iowa is 76th nationally in success rate, and they’ve allowed an average of just over three-and-a-half yards per carry.
With the type of defense Phil Parker plays, Iowa is likely to give up some yards in this matchup. The secondary will want to play their zone while keeping eyes on the quarterback and in the backfield. Because of the RPO threat, the Iowa secondary will need to respect the air attack of Wisconsin. This will likely open up the ground and create a lot of opportunity for the 18th-best rushing offense against the 56th-best rush defense.
When Iowa Has The Ball
It’s getting very difficult to project this offense to put any meaningful drives together consistently. In its three Big Ten games this season, Iowa has been on offense for 40 drives. Three of those ended a half, so throw those out to get 37 total drives in Big Ten play. 23 of them amounted to 10 yards or less and 18 were three-and-outs. This season, when Iowa records at least two consecutive three-and-outs, the opponent has scored on 60% of their resulting opportunities. Last week was the first week since Western Michigan that Iowa did not record back-to-back three and outs. It still went three-and-out on six of their 13 non-half-ending possessions, but that’s an improvement.
Wisconsin transfer Deacon Hill will make his first road start in the stadium he called home last season. He’ll have extra motivation on Saturday to have an improved game from last week. Hill finished six of 21 with 110 yards against Purdue. Of the 21 throws, seven of them went to wide receivers and none were completed. Hill made non-competitive overthrows to several of his targets on the day. You can chalk some of that up to the first-start-jitters, but it’s something that needs to change on Saturday. Wisconsin has been getting solid pressure on the quarterbacks this year with 78 hurries and 15 sacks on the season according to Pro Football Focus.
Iowa’s Path to Victory
Mike Tressel, Wisconsin’s defensive coordinator, is likely to sell out defending the run given what’s on tape for the Iowa passing offense. But he’ll also try to take away Iowa’s lone pass threat in Erick All. To establish any sort of rhythm offensively in Madison, Iowa needs to dial up high-percentage throws to wide receivers. The majority of Hill’s misses came in mid-range and deep passing against Purdue. He was zero for six on passes between five and 14 air yards. He connected on three of nine passes of 15 air yards or more last week. Combined, that’s three of 12 on passes of more than five air yards.
In Madison, the deep ball won’t be an option, and the mid-range pass is probably not your best path either. The Badgers have eight interceptions this season and rank 17th nationally in total EPA against the pass. Hill’s best option will be to try and involve the wide receivers in the short game and allow them to work in space. Iowa wide receivers have just 20 receptions all season, and we haven’t really been able to see what any of them can do in space. If there’s any success there, it will open up the run for Iowa.
Getting You Set, Iowa vs. Wisconsin, Preview
Iowa and Wisconsin have played every year since 2013. Just once during that stretch has Wisconsin recorded more than 30 points in a game. Iowa has not scored 30 points against the Badgers since 2010. It’s been since the 2020 season that one of these teams recorded 300 total yards against the other. Regardless, the program that comes home with the Heartland Trophy has been the Big Ten West champion in five of the nine years that the East and West divisions have existed. This year, that trend might very well continue as Wisconsin and Iowa sit atop the Big Ten West standings.
Prediction
Wisconsin – 20
Iowa – 13
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