Oxford, MS is buzzing. Expectations around Ole Miss football have arguably never been higher, especially during the offseason. And that’s for good reason. They’re coming off the program’s first 11-win season, they managed to hold onto Lane Kiffin, and a lot of the roster is returning. They also have a favorable schedule, as the College Football Playoff expands to 12 teams. So that brings us to the question: is 2024 a CFP or bust year for Kiffin and the Rebels?
In five years at the helm in Oxford, Kiffin has revived a program that had flatlined under former coach Matt Luke. But even with that revitalization, the Rebels haven’t quite managed to get over the hump. Following a 5-5 record during the Covid shortened 2020 season, Ole Miss has had two 10+ win seasons, and an 8-5 record in 2022. But those have come with very little preseason hype. This year, the preseason hype and expectations are there.
So how do the Rebels handle it?
Is This a “CFP or Bust” Year For Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss?
Key Skill Position Players Returning
The first reason for the preseason expectations is the number of guys returning. On offense alone, they’re returning quarterback Jaxson Dart, running back Ulysses Bentley IV, receivers Tre Harris and Jordan Watkins, and tight end Caden Prieskorn. They also return three starting offensive linemen.
On the defensive side, two key returners are linemen Jared Ivey and JJ Pegues. They also return linebackers, Khari Coleman and Suntarine Perkins.
In total, the Rebels are bringing back 13 starters from last year’s squad. Coming off of an 11-win season, being able to bring back double-digit starters is a solid core of guys to be able to lean on heavily, especially early in the year.
The Ole Miss Transfer Haul
Anyone who knows Kiffin knows that he’s going to utilize the transfer portal in a major way. This offseason was no different. According to 247Sports, the Ole Miss portal class ranked first in the country this year. They filled a few needs, and seemingly stockpiled a few other positions for the fun of it. Among the portal additions were edge rusher Princely Umanmielen from Florida, linebacker Chris “Pooh” Paul from Arkansas, and wide receivers Juice Wells from South Carolina and Deion Smith, who played at LSU before eventually going down the junior college route. While things with Smith have been a bit shaky surrounding eligibility concerns, it looks as if he’ll be good to go for this season.
One other key name that Kiffin added through the portal is defensive lineman Walter Nolen. After two years as an Aggie, Nolen makes his way to Oxford for his first year as a Rebel. In fact, Nolen made our list of the top returning defensive linemen from the SEC for this season. Landing Nolen was a huge priority, and pick up, for Kiffin and defensive coordinator Pete Golding.
A Relatively Weak Schedule
The other aspect surrounding Ole Miss’ CFP chances revolves around the schedule. Sure it’s an SEC schedule, but it’s not the toughest schedule you’ve ever seen (that honor may go to this year’s Florida team.) The Rebels non-conference slate includes home games against Furman, Middle Tennessee, and Georgia Southern. They also have a non-conference clash against Wake Forest on the road. A trip to Winston-Salem is enough to raise eyebrows, but shouldn’t be enough to see an upset.
For the conference slate, they take trips to South Carolina, Arkansas, LSU, and Florida. Out of those, a nighttime kickoff in Baton Rouge is certainly an eye-opener. There’s also a likely chance that ends up being the first real test for Ole Miss this season, on October 12.
In terms of home games, things get a little more dicey. Kentucky, Oklahoma, Georgia, and Mississippi State all invade Oxford this season. While Kentucky and Mississippi State aren’t pushovers, obviously Georgia and Oklahoma get the attention from those. After all, Georgia has won two of the past three national titles, and Oklahoma seems to be on an upward trajectory under Brent Venables.
Based on that schedule, a realistic ceiling for the Rebels would be 11-1, with a loss to Georgia. The floor would be somewhere around 8-4. In that scenario, they’re likely looking at losses to Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, and one more team along the way. Also in that scenario is the fact that an 8-4 season would be a huge disappointment for Ole Miss.
So Is Ole Miss a College Football Playoff Team in 2024?
In simple terms, they should be. From a roster standpoint, they are. And from a scheduling standpoint, it also looks like a yes. With the expansion of the College Football Playoff, there’s a good chance most SEC teams can have up to two losses and still sneak in. Yes, that’s reliant upon other factors, but that’s a relatively safe baseline. And with that schedule, there’s optimism in Oxford that Ole Miss can do just that, by going 10-2 or 11-1.
The unknown part of this team, however, is how well are they going to mesh. With new faces come new questions, including how well everyone will get along and connect. If everything runs smoothly, it could be a great year in Oxford. If not, things could get messy.
The other unknown is the Kiffin factor. In the past, he has oftentimes struggled in big games. A lot of times that has been due to self-inflicted wounds on his part. This year, getting rid of those self-inflicted wounds, and bad decisions, is going to be mandatory. For his part, Kiffin has seemed a touch more professional for much of the offseason.
If that can continue into the fall, it could be a magical season in north Mississippi. If he reverts into past versions of himself that we’ve seen at times, by December, Rebel fans could be looking in the mirror asking, “What could have been?”
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