Very Important Five Games
Fresh off a bye week the Kentucky football team welcomes their rivals down Interstate 75 on Saturday night. The Cats were reeling before the break and look to change their fortunes in the second half. If Mark Stoops’ squad wants to make an eighth straight bowl game they need some wins. Let’s look at both teams and give you a prediction as Kentucky begins a crucial stretch against Tennessee.
Getting Things Right
It’s not so much that Kentucky dropped two in a row, it’s the way they lost. Three major penalties early put the Cats in a hole against Georgia and they never recovered. Against Missouri, it was even worse. With more penalty yards (122) than passing (120), Kentucky saw an early 14-0 lead quickly evaporate into a 38-21 loss.
Not only did the off week give the Cats a chance to get healthy but they also worked on addressing their issues. One of those continues to be the passing game. Devin Leary hasn’t looked like the player he was at North Carolina State completing 47 percent of his passes in SEC play. They also have a pass drop rate of 12.5 percent, one of the worst in the country. The off week gave Barion Brown and Dane Key a chance to get healthy from nagging injuries.
Despite having the top running back in the league in Ray Davis Stoops said in his Monday press conference the Cats are committed to the passing game. In previous years UK relied heavily on the run and won a bunch of games. That’s something to watch these last five games as Kentucky begins a crucial stretch.
Scouting the Volunteers
Josh Heupel’s squad comes into Saturday sporting a 5-2 record and 2-2 in the SEC. The two losses came 29-16 at Florida and last week at Alabama. Tennessee jumped out to a 20-7 halftime lead and it looked like they would beat the Crimson Tide for a second straight year. However, Alabama outscored them 27-0 after the break on the way to a 34-20 win.
Quarterback Joe Milton leads an offense that hasn’t been as high-powered as the last couple of years. In 2023 he’s completed 63 percent of his passes for 1,535 yards and 12 touchdowns. While the stats look good Milton hasn’t thrown for over 300 yards in a game this year.
Where Tennessee has been strong is with the rushing game. Led by Jaylen Wright UT ranks seventh in the nation averaging 217 yards a game. The junior has 593 yards on the year putting him fourth in the SEC. In addition, he’s topped 100 yards in four of seven games.
To the surprise of many the Volunteers are winning with defense, something you don’t expect from a Heupel-led squad. Defensive lineman James Pearce leads the team with 1o tackles for a loss and seven sacks. The latter puts him second in the league. Led by Pearce the defensive line can dominate a game and will present a huge test for the Big Blue Wall.
Series History
Saturday’s contest marks the 119th time Kentucky and Tennessee have met on the gridiron. The series is very one-sided in favor of the Vols. Overall Tennessee leads 82-26 with nine ties and is on a two-game win streak. Since the year 2000, the Vols are 20-3. Of course UK lost 26 straight to their neighbors to the south from 1985-2010 before winning in 2011. In addition, they won in 2017 and 2020.
Last year’s game was great if you are a Tennessee fan last year was great, a Kentucky fan not so much. Playing in Knoxville the Vols totally dominated the game. Hendon Hooker led the way throwing for 245 yards and three touchdowns. In addition, he ran for another score. On the other side of the ball, a defense ranked next to last in passing yards allowed only gave up 98 to Will Levis and picked him off three times.
We’ve talked about the long-standing rivalry between the schools. However is it about to be a thing of the past?
End of an Era?
As we mentioned the Cats and Vols have met 119 times. With the exception of 1943 due to World War II they’ve played every year since 1919. That’s the third most in SEC history behind Auburn-Georgia (128 games) and Mississippi-Mississippi State (120th meeting this year.) However, as everyone is surely aware with Oklahoma and Texas joining the league next year the schedules are changing.
The idea being proposed is a 1-7 model in which you play one team every year and rotate the other seven games facing everyone in the league every four years. Reportedly Kentucky and South Carolina will be permanent rivals. Both Nick Saban and Hugh Freeze have alluded to this which means the end of many storied rivalries. It’s not been made official but the fact two coaches brought it up lends credence to it happening. If this is the last time Tennessee visits Lexington as a permanent rival it’s definitely a sad time.
Now that we’ve previewed both teams and given you some history as Kentucky begins a crucial stretch let’s give you a prediction.
Who Wins on Saturday?
On paper, it looks like Kentucky has the advantage. They’ve had two weeks to rest and heal up while Tennessee is coming off that tough loss to Alabama. Of course, in a rivalry game, anything can happen as in both 2018 and 2021 Kentucky had the better team but couldn’t get the win.
For the Wildcats to take home the victory they have to cut down on the mistakes and penalties. In addition, Leary and the receivers must get the passing game going. As we’ve mentioned Kentucky begins a crucial stretch over their final five games. You can make the case they could win or lose all five. They have to win one to get bowl-eligible. Over the last few years, Kentucky’s flipped the script against Florida but not Tennessee or Georgia. That happens again on Saturday.
Tennessee 28-24
Thanks for checking out our preview here at Last Word On College Football. We’ll be back after the game with a complete wrap-up.
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