LSU and Baylor are all set to share the field for the 12th time in history for the Kinder’s Texas Bowl on December 31st. ESPN is televising the game at 2:30pm on a loaded bowl slate for the day. The Texas Bowl has provided intriguing Big 12 vs. SEC matchups, with LSU losing to Kansas State in its last appearance in January of 2022. Baylor had the pleasure of playing Vanderbilt in its last Texas Bowl showing, earning the win in 2018. Interestingly enough, the SEC is 1-3 against the Big 12 in Texas Bowl matchups since 2019.
This game offers fascinating angles. Baylor’s head coach, Dave Aranda, orchestrated the LSU defense for the legendary 2019 Tigers. Aranda’s 8-4 record in 2024 has significantly cooled his seat since going 3-9 in 2023. Brian Kelly has positive momentum with the top portal class in the country. Regardless, he needs to take advantage of every opportunity to reinforce the fact that LSU has the right guy.
LSU’s last Texas Bowl visit came after former coach Ed Orgeron’s firing. The Tigers were so short on scholarship players that receiver Jontre Kirklin played quarterback in the game. Since then, Kelly has shown steady improvement in going 10-4 and 10-3 in 2022 and 2023, respectively, until this season’s 8-4 showing. This matchup provides a potential full-circle moment for Kelly as a chance to remind the fanbase how far the program has come. But make no mistake, a win won’t come easily.
LSU vs. Baylor in the Texas Bowl
Defending the Big 12 Bears
After injuries, transfers, and opt-outs, the Tigers are down 10 defensive players. The good news is only three of them are major contributors Sage Ryan, Major Burns, and Jay’viar Suggs. Either way, Baylor won’t care. The Bears feature a prolific offense led by quarterback Sawyer Robertson. The junior has enjoyed a breakout season, passing for over 2600 yards and 26 touchdowns. While nobody will mistake Robertson for Jayden Daniels, he’s a dangerous runner. And LSU’s vulnerability against mobile quarterbacks is well documented.
LSU is fortunate to have both starting defensive ends for the game in Bradyn Swinson and Sai’vion Jones, even though both will be preparing for the draft soon. They’ll be critical in containing Robertson, but Baylor presents more problems. Freshman running back Bryson Washington is a dynamic threat, as his 12 touchdowns would suggest. Washington possesses the playmaking ability to both elude tacklers and take it the distance afterward. This brings Burns’ absence to the forefront. He was a key cog in run support. Now the responsibility falls on sophomore Javien Toviano, who will likely take his place.
The Bears also have explosive threats in the passing game. Josh Cameron is their leading receiver and a dangerous return man. Monaray Baldwin has track speed and tight end Michael Trigg is a 250-pound mismatch over the middle. Baylor is a physical team that likes to run, but the Bears can hurt defenses in several ways.
Blocking Baylor
LSU’s most impactful losses come on the offensive line. The Tigers are now missing left tackle Will Campbell and right tackle Emery Jones after left guard Garrett Dellinger had already been out for weeks. Practice footage indicates that trusted reserve Tyree Adams will start at left tackle. Starting guard Miles Frazier will kick out to right tackle, and Bo Bordelon will now start at right guard.
It’s important to note the changes on the line because the Baylor defense attacks quarterbacks in creative ways. As expected from an Aranda-led team, the defense pressures from unexpected positions and simulate pressures to confuse. It will be as important as ever for the linemen to communicate. Center DJ Chester will once again be challenged. The Bears don’t have an elite pass rusher, but they can generate pressure by scheme.
Joe Sloan can make things much easier on his offense if he can establish the run. It’s been a season-long problem for the Tigers, but they have made more of an effort to stick with the run since Kelly got involved with the play-calling against Florida. A decent rushing attack can help keep Garrett Nussmeier upright. The LSU passing offense holds an advantage over the Baylor secondary if Nussmeier has adequate time.
Finishing Strong With a Texas Bowl Win
LSU and Baylor have more in common than just their 8-4 records. Both teams endured three-game losing streaks this season but didn’t fold. Aranda and Kelly are respected coaches who still have a lot to prove. The Texas Bowl is being played in Houston, a fertile recruiting ground for both teams. In an age where we hear the unfortunate term “meaningless bowl games”, every win helps when coaches are soliciting money.
The Bears are losing only ten players to the transfer portal, and they’re anywhere from two to three-and-a-half-point favorites in this game. The stability of the team is encouraging, coming off a six-game winning streak. However, LSU has also had its moments. The Tigers won at South Carolina and beat Ole Miss. Most importantly, they found their confidence again at the end of the season. Expect LSU to pair that confidence with an opportunistic passing attack to get the win in sharp contrast to its last trip to the Texas Bowl.
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