This week’s college football slate may be a bit light on big-time matchups, but that doesn’t mean important games aren’t being played. And for Rebel fans, that means looking forward to Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt. For many, this matchup easily gets overlooked. For these two programs though, it’s a game that never goes unnoticed.
Vanderbilt is the third most played opponent for Ole Miss football, only behind Mississippi State and LSU. And while it’s a series that has been one-sided lately, there was a long stretch where these two teams played good games virtually every season. However, the Rebels have won eight of the last 10, including the last four matchups. Those four wins have come by an average margin of victory of 24 points per game.
Currently, it is easy to assume that this will be another victory for Ole Miss. Following wins over Hawaii and Alabama A&M to open the season, Vanderbilt has since lost six in a row. However, despite the six straight losses, the Commodores have managed to keep things interesting in their two games against ranked opponents (Missouri and Georgia) this season.
So the question becomes, do the Rebels take care of business the way they should? Or can Vanderbilt invade Oxford and leave with a huge upset?
What to Expect from Vanderbilt’s Offense
The problems for Vandy are probably best started by addressing its struggles to run the ball. On the season the Commodores only average 83.3 rushing yards per game. That’s already problematic enough, but it gets intensified when you realize that the strength of the Rebel defense is their front seven and the ability to stop the run. If everyone from the Ole Miss front stays engaged, it could be a long day for Vanderbilt’s running backs.
If there’s a bright side for the Vanderbilt offense, it could potentially be through the air. The biggest weakness of the Ole Miss defense is its secondary. Along similar lines, the Commodores have thrown the ball reasonably well this season. They’ve averaged 266 yards per game passing, and senior wideout Will Sheppard is a solid receiver for the Commodores. Expect Sheppard to end up being a constant target, and a bit of a safety blanket for quarterback Ken Seals.
The rushing attack will struggle, but if the passing game can be efficient, the chance for the upset will be there late.
Ole Miss Offense
This is where the Rebels are going to have the win the game. They come into this matchup sitting third in the SEC in yards and points per game. On the other side, Vanderbilt’s defense is giving up 461 yards per game this year. With the Commodores’ defense struggling, especially in terms of the rushing game, this should be a game in which both Quinshon Judkins and Ulysses Bentley IV see plenty of touches. With those two backs, as well as quarterback Jaxson Dart’s ability to get out of the pocket, 200 yards on the ground should be an easily attainable goal for this Ole Miss offense.
As for the passing game, Vandy is also giving up almost 291 yards per game through the air. With a solid receiving unit, and one that continues to get healthier, this should also be an advantage for the Ole Miss offense. The key to that side of the game for the Rebels is Dart, as he’s a guy who makes questionable decisions in the pocket from time to time. And while the Commodores may struggle on the defensive side of the ball, Vanderbilt does a good job of forcing turnovers.
Along those lines, Commodore defensive back CJ Taylor is a guy to keep your eyes on. He’s been an absolute menace for opposing offenses this season. If Dart keeps the mistakes to a minimum and stays efficient through the air, and the Rebels can limit the effect Taylor has on the game, this is a game Ole Miss should cruise to victory in.
Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt: Bottom Line and Prediction
This is homecoming weekend for the Rebels. That means Oxford is going to be crowded and the atmosphere should be electric. On the field, things should be similar for the home team.
Vanderbilt is going to come out excited and will try to take advantage of the Rebel secondary. For Ole Miss, the key is to get pressure on Seals and keep everyone in front. Don’t give up the big play. If the defense can do those two things, it’s going to be tough for the Commodores to keep up in terms of scoring. The Rebels are going to score, and are probably going to score often. The only question is whether they can get stops on the defensive side of the ball.
Expect the Commodores to keep things close through the first half, and likely force a turnover or two along the way. But the offense of the Rebels proves to be too much, and a weak Vandy defense doesn’t get enough stops. A close game at halftime turns into a relatively easy Ole Miss win.
Ole Miss 48, Vanderbilt 24
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