The Oklahoma Sooners and the SEC sound like a match made in heaven. The SEC is college football’s most dynamic conference, and the Sooners have long outgrown the Big 12. However, what will happen when both collide on September 21st?
Predictions for the Oklahoma Sooners’ 2024 Season
A Different Era of the Sooners
The first recorded matchup between the Oklahoma Sooners and an SEC opponent took place nearly one hundred years ago. The Vanderbilt Commodores came to Norman, Oklahoma on September 30th, 1933 in front of nearly 16,000 fans for one of the Sooners’ biggest college football matches thus far. The game ended in a 0-0 stalemate. The Sooners would go on to lose to Tulsa the next week and end the season at 4-4-1.
The next college football matchup between the Sooners and an SEC opponent came five years later. Sooners football was on a roll in the 1938 season, undefeated through ten games. The Tennessee Volunteers ranked number two in the nation, played a shutout game against the Sooners in the 1939 Orange Bowl, and walked away with the victory.
All of this is ancient history, though. In those years the Sooners played in the Big Six and Big Seven Conferences. The Western Athletic Conference wasn’t even a concept yet. The world of today is virtually unrecognizable, and so is Sooners football. The era of Bud Wilkinson and Claude Arnold has been replaced by Brent Venables and Jackson Arnold.
Best in the World
The Oklahoma Sooners’ overall record against the SEC is 166-100-7. The Sooners have come a long way from the stalemates and shutouts of early college football. They aren’t alone in that regard. The SEC, likewise, didn’t become the powerhouse of the college football world overnight.
Although it’s hard to imagine now, looking back the SEC has only really stepped up over the past twenty years. In the 1970’s and 80’s, the Missouri Valley Conference was a dominant force in college football. In the 1990’s, Big Ten and ACC football were the conferences to watch with Florida State and Nebraska dominating the decade. However, just before the turn of the century, the SEC truly began to make its mark on college football- and it hasn’t stopped since.
Powerhouses such as Georgia, Alabama, LSU, and South Carolina have kept the SEC on top of the nation. The last decade of college football championships reads as a ‘best of’ the SEC. Alabama has captured the title five times since 2011, the Georgia Bulldogs have done so twice, and LSU once. Alongside the likes of Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Kentucky, the SEC is an indomitable force in college football.
So the question stands: How will the Oklahoma Sooners stack up in their first year of SEC Conference play?
Tennessee
Venables and Arnold will be leading the Oklahoma Sooners against the Tennessee Volunteers on September 21st. This is an interesting matchup for two reasons: Oklahoma currently holds a winning record against Tennessee, and the Volunteers’ head coach, Josh Heupel, was the last quarterback to lead the Sooners to a national title. Veteran talents on the defensive side have solved last season’s woes, and the Sooners are maximizing their strengths on offense. The only risk here is the Sooners quarterback. Arnold’s gunslinging style out of the pocket is a risky move against a team that will take advantage in an instant. While the Sooners are likely to come out on top, don’t be surprised if they drop the ball on this one.
Auburn
Their second matchup comes against Auburn, who has never really recovered since Cam Newton left for the NFL. Posting numerous losing seasons over the past few years, it’s unlikely that the team that once upset Alabama will put up anything close to a struggle. If this game comes down to the wire, the Sooners will have much bigger concerns for the season ahead.
Texas
The most telling game of the Sooners’ first SEC year is undoubtedly going to come when the Texas Longhorns come to Norman. These two have been rivals for as long as college football has been a sport, and they’ve constantly been in a back-and-forth battle to determine who is truly the best. Every matchup has been exciting, but the Longhorns have still won more than they’ve lost when it comes to the Sooners. In the 2010’s, the dominant force in this rivalry were the Sooners, but every single game, with the exception of 2022, was by a single touchdown or less. The Longhorns could very well deliver the first loss of the Sooners’ season, and it’s more than likely that they will too.
South Carolina, Ole Miss, and Missouri
South Carolina isn’t likely to be much of an opponent. Ole Miss likely may not be either. Ole Miss will put on a good show, but their defense just can’t keep up with higher-intensity offenses. Missouri has only just now found its footing after a rough few years.
Missouri’s 2023 season finally saw them pull things together- sort of. They capped off their season by winning the Cotton Bowl- holding Ohio State to a mere three points in an ugly affair. Still, they aren’t likely to topple Oklahoma. In all their matchups, Missouri has only won twenty-four games to Oklahoma’s sixty-seven. Their only hope is that exhaustion has set in for the Sooners and that they aim to protect their playoff hopes rather than a perfect record.
Alabama
A coach’s first season is never easy. No matter where they come from or where they’ve gone, the first season is always hard to watch. Venables knows that fact better than anyone. Kalen DeBoer may have taken Washington to the top in the PAC-12’s swan song season, but all that glory fades pretty quickly when the next season comes around.
Alabama, from top to bottom, has talent at every level of the depth chart. Jalen Milroe is rising to become a superstar talent on the same level as Newton, Aikman, and Manning. With the NFL on the horizon, Milroe is going to put 100% into every play, game, and moment. Jackson Arnold simply hasn’t risen to that stage yet, and this game could put that disparity on display. On paper, this matchup should be a no-brainer.
But is it?
Venables has crafted this Sooners team, essentially, from the bottom up. He’s been planning for this SEC season for well over a year, and Alabama must have weighed heavily in that process. With Saban out and DeBoer in, however, the odds may have suddenly turned in his favor. By the time this point in the season comes around, it’ll be clear whether Alabama’s dynasty was due to Saban alone or not. The Sooners will either get blown out of the water, or they’ll deliver an upset right there in their hometown.
LSU
In 1950, the Sooners shut out the LSU Tigers in the Sugar Bowl. LSU decisively ended the Sooners’ season in the 2019 Peach Bowl. In a callback to both games, the Tigers and the Sooners will once again face off to end the regular season.
With the loss of Jayden Daniels, this season has become much less certain for LSU. Their defense last season had a tough time keeping up. Even with the seventh-best recruiting class this year, it’s yet to be seen whether or not they’ll hold up to the pressure.
The Sooners, on the other hand, will be at the end of a very long season. Despite the positive news coming from the offseason fall camp, a lot can change in just a few months. They’ll also be on the road at LSU, and road games sometimes make all the difference.
If there was ever a toss-up match for the season, it’s this one. A solid reason why Oklahoma could come out on top, however, is Garrett Nussmeier. Though a junior, Nussmeier is only now stepping up as LSU’s starter. Nussmeier’s best showing was in 2022, where he only completed 60% of his passes. That percentage dropped last season- not exactly the sign of a diamond in the rough. Overcoming the Sooners’ defense for any quarterback will be difficult this season, but it may prove impossible for Nussmeier and LSU.
Conclusions
The pre-season polls are ranking the Sooners pretty low, but that seems improbable given their history. They’ve earned a winning record against the SEC over their history, and have steadily improved under Venables’ leadership. Thanks to the new playoff format, Oklahoma could even come from behind and clinch a spot in the national championship. So, is competing for, or even winning, the SEC Championship in their first year really the fantasy some think it is? Only time will tell.
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