Does the SEC Championship still matter? Listening to our favorite CFB podcast recaps on the Week 14 slate, one would have to wonder if the games still matter. The SEC Championship Game is almost always the hottest ticket and most viewed game on Championship weekend. Yet, very little time or hot air was spent on reviewing the action from rivalry week or previewing the SEC Championship Game. There was very little said about Alabama and Georgia meeting for the fifth time in Atlanta. If Kirby Smart and the Dawgs could get over the “Alabama Jones” jinx.
Instead, it was all spent on Lane Kiffin and the crazy coaching carousel of 2025. We’ve already spent plenty of time talking about Lane’s (in)decision. Let’s take a break from debating if the calendar or just bad decisions (advice) are to blame and put our focus squarely where it belongs: the SEC Championship. It’s Alabama. It’s Georgia. And here is your preview.
SEC Championship Betting Lines: Yes, It Still Matters
Fanduel SEC Championship Betting Lines
| Matchup | Date | Time | Channel | Line |
| No. Georgia vs. No. Alabama | 12/6 | 4:00 PM | ABC | #UGA -2.5 |
Week 14 Picks
Despite the Sunday Circus (carousel), there was plenty of intrigue on Friday and Saturday. Kiffin and the Rebels won their third straight Egg Bowl. Georgia, hopefully, got the bad plays and ju-ju out against Georgia Tech before their return to Mercedes-Benz on Saturday. Texas made a statement with its dominant second half to give the Aggies their first loss of the season. What happened to Oklahoma’s offense? That could come back to bite them in the CFB Playoff? Diego Pavia struck the (Heisman) pose, and Vandy made their final statement to get to 10 wins. Finally, Alabama navigated the haunted house that is Jordan-Hare Stadium to find its way to another Iron Bowl win.
- Week 14 Predictions: 5-1
- YTD: 42-25
It Still Matters to the Coaches
Kalen DeBoer and Kirby Smart both shared their thoughts on playing for the SEC Champion. Unlike the media and fan narrative, it still matters. For DeBoer, it’s his first time coaching in Atlanta for the SEC Championship. He missed out last year, thanks to Oklahoma. There is an expectation in Tuscaloosa that Alabama will play for the SEC Championship year in and year out.
DeBoer shared that playing Georgia again on Saturday helps the Tide check off one of its season goals. “This has been a goal of ours, to get to this point and have the opportunity to play in the SEC Championship and beyond…Looking forward to Saturday and the opportunity and challenge to face Georgia again this year. It’s going to be an awesome environment, one our guys are excited about already. Really looking forward to.” While not exactly bulletin board material, DeBoer’s comments reflect that this game still matters.
For Smart, Georgia, and SEC fans can almost take it for granted. This will be the eighth time in ten years that Smart’s team will be in Atlanta. For Smart, it’s all about earning the chance. He earned those spots when the SEC had divisions, and he has earned that spot with whatever the SEC has done with scheduling each of the last two years.
Smart shared the opportunity and privilege of playing in Atlanta with the media on Monday. “(The) SEC Championship game is an awesome opportunity for our guys. I told them last night, ‘You earned the opportunity to play in this game. This was not given; this was earned. This was not picked by a committee; it was on the field.” Georgia can lock up another SEC Championship and punch their ticket to a return trip to the Sugar Bowl. While a home playoff game in Athens would be fun, beignets and some rest will probably do the Dawgs some good.
Alabama wins if…
They show up. Kirby Smart beats everybody. He has more wins in ten seasons than anyone in history and has helped make Georgia a staple in the SEC Championship game in the first week of December. Alabama thought is Smart’s kryptonite. The former Tide defensive coordinator is 1-7 all-time against Alabama. Sure, that win to secure Georgia’s first national championships was sweet, but too often this game has been filled with heartbreak.
Ok, now for the analysis. Ty Simpson is the key to an Alabama victory. Simpson is a serious Heisman candidate and a cog in Alabama’s offense. Alabama lacks a consistent run game, and Simpson’s success goes a long way in determining the outcome of the game. Here is a quick comparison of three key metrics (completion percentage, passing yards/attempt, and rushing yards/game) across Alabama’s 10 wins and 2 losses.
| Statistic | In Wins (10 games) |
In Losses (2 games)
|
| Completion Percentage | 67.40% | 60.00% |
| Passing Yards/Attempt | 8.15 | 6.82 |
| Rushing Yards/Game | 11.8 | 4 |
With Alabama already on the bubble, the Tide will need to make sure Simpson has a strong game to ensure their CFB Playoff dreams don’t burst. While we find it unlikely the Tide will be “punished” for losing in the SEC Championship. A crowded bubble with Notre Dame, BYU, Texas Tech, Miami, Texas, and Vanderbilt is nothing that the Tide wants to leave to chance.
Georgia wins if…
They get off the field on third down and don’t let the Tide ponder going for it on fourth down. Alabama was 13 of 19 on 3rd down and 0 for 1 on fourth down. Historically, that has been the thorn in Georgia’s defense against Alabama. Jalen Hurts, Jalen Milroe, and Ty Simpson this year all extended plays and converted third downs with their legs. Georgia’s defense is far from the elite unit it was in its 2021 or 2022 championship years.
The Dawg’s defense had a propensity to be gashed and give up big plays earlier in the year. We will chalk that up to youthfulness and inexperience. Over the past month-plus, Georgia has been stingy on defense. They shut out Kiffin and the Rebels in the second half, neutralized Arch and the Longhorns, and made sure Haynes King and the Ramblin’ Wreck never found a consistent footing last Saturday in Mercedes-Benz.
Georgia is playing as well as anyone in the country. Their rushing game has been consistent, and Mike Bobo has been able to lean on it. Gunner Stockton continues to play at his best when the lights are the brightest. The defense will have to look to do its part as well.
SEC Championship Prediction
Smart finds a way to count to two. Look for a classic fourth quarter Georgia Deathmarch and a few third and fourth down conversions as Geogia finds just enough to stay on top of the Tide.
Georgia 31
Alabama 27
Main Photo: John Reed-Imagn Images
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