It’s hard to believe, but the regular season is nearly gone. With only two weeks left until the Big Ten Championship, the conference’s College Football Playoff picture is coming further into focus. Last week, Iowa fell in another hard-fought loss to one of the West Coast additions, officially eliminating it from contention. Even with a win, it would have taken a Herculean effort to break through for the Hawkeyes.
Now, three teams sit firmly in the CFP Committee’s rankings, with two just outside. While those two have work to do, the schedule lines up in a way that if they were to win out, it would make the committee’s job incredibly difficult.
The Big Ten College Football Playoff Picture: Week 13
Locked In
#1 Ohio State
At 10-0, are the Buckeyes locked in? The committee is seemingly punishing bad losses more this year, so an inexplicable loss to Rutgers this week could certainly throw a wrench into the plans. Regardless, with a win over the Scarlet Knights this week, Ohio State will be firmly situated to return to the CFP, regardless of what happens in Ann Arbor on November 29.
Overall, the Buckeyes have been rolling every opponent on the schedule and haven’t really broken a sweat since facing Texas in Week 1. There is a bit of adversity right now with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate dealing with injuries. The prevailing feeling within Buckeye Nation and the Lunatic Fringe
is that it would be smart to sit the two receivers to make sure they’re both healthy for Michigan and beyond.
Even with a win this week, the Buckeyes cannot clinch a spot in the Big Ten Championship. With Oregon, USC, and Michigan all sitting with one loss, only two can lose this week as the Ducks and Trojans play each other. Even with a loss in Ann Arbor, the Buckeyes could get to Indianapolis, but it would take a whole lot of chaos and upsets along the way. The winner of Oregon/USC would have to lose next week AND Michigan would have to lose to Maryland this week.
Just win out, and you’re fine.
This week: vs. Rutgers (5-5, 2-5)
#2 Indiana
The Hoosier Hype Train is back on track after a near-upset against Penn State. Last week, Fernando Mendoza and the Indiana offense got back on track with a commanding 31-7 win over a still-reeling Wisconsin team. If you want to nitpick the performance, it was, by far, the worst rushing day for the Hoosiers this year. Heading into the game, Roman Hemby and the Hoosier rushing attack were averaging nearly 232 yards per game on the ground. Against the Badgers, they only managed 83 and were held out of the endzone for just the second time this year.
Of course, the Hoosiers had to play without star receiver Elijah Sarratt, who is dealing with an injury.
Defensively, the Hoosiers are continuing to fly under the radar. With all of the focus on the Heisman frontrunner, Indiana’s defense is second in scoring, fourth in total defense, fifth in rushing, and 12th in passing. The unit also gets off the field when it needs to. Indiana’s defense has faced the fewest plays per game in the country.
Indiana is pretty much locked in for the CFP. Even a loss to Purdue wouldn’t change that…we think. Again, as we said last week, the Hoosiers don’t have the benefit of the doubt as some do. As with Ohio State, there is no path to clinching a spot in the Big Ten Championship with week. A win over Purdue or a loss by Michigan over the next two weeks would do it. The Hoosiers have the head-to-head over Oregon, so if both have one loss, Indiana gets the nod.
This week: Idle
One More Win?
#7 Oregon
To this point in the season, Oregon has been able to fly under the radar as a title contender. The reason? The schedule. Who has Oregon beaten this year? Is a three-point, at-the-gun win over Iowa the Ducks’ best win? We can’t use the “you can’t control how good your opponents are” excuse with Ohio State without also using it for Oregon. The difference is the fact that the Buckeyes haven’t lost, whereas the Ducks have.
Of course, that could all change this and next weekend. Oregon has been playing well this year despite a few scares against Wisconsin and Iowa. The committee did say that it gives Oregon credit for the Penn State win despite the Nittany Lions falling off the face of the Earth. Dante Moore has developed into a real threat at quarterback, the Ducks’ freshman class is contributing in massive ways, and that defense is among the elites.
This week, Oregon has USC. Next week, Washington. One win would be able to do it, but it may depend on which week. If Oregon drops the only two games against ranked opponents, it doesn’t look great. At the same time, a win over USC gives Oregon a ranked win and locks it in, barring a nuclear collapse against Washington.
The Ducks can get to the Big Ten Championship with a pair of wins and an Ohio State loss.
This week: vs. #15 USC (8-2, 6-1)
Gotta Win Out
#15 USC
The path might be laid out for the USC Trojans this year. Win out and you should be in. Of course, the committee is nothing if not unpredictable.
Lincoln Riley’s squad has been defined by an up-and-down three-week stretch. First, USC lost to Illinois in a game that ages with each passing week. Then, the Trojans responded by dominating Michigan. The following in, they put up a fight, but ultimately fell to Notre Dame. Two of the three teams with a pulse on the schedule handed the Trojans losses.
Jayden Maiava leads the Big Ten in passing. Makai Lemon leads the way in receiving yards and is in a tie for first with 10 touchdowns. This is a talented USC offense; there is no doubt about it.
However, Oregon is a different animal. A loss to Oregon, while not egregious, would effectively end USC’s hopes for the CFP. At the same time, a win over Oregon and UCLA would give the Trojans an argument. There would likely need to be a little chaos, but with the head-to-head over Michigan, it could give the Trojans the bump they need.
USC can get to the Big Ten Championship with a pair of wins and an Ohio State loss.
But first, beat Oregon.
This week: at #7 Oregon (9-1, 6-1)
#18 Michigan
The Wolverines sat at home last week to get ready for this all-important two-week stretch. This week, Sherron Moore’s squad gets Maryland. The Terps have been a “week before The Game” opponent for both Ohio State and Michigan over the years. In each, Maryland has given its foe a great game, perhaps capitalizing on the lack of focus.
Michigan needs to win out to even be in the conversation. It will need a Big Ten Championship appearance to really get anywhere. Of all of the contenders, Michigan has the steepest climb. It must win out and root for losses by Oregon and USC.
This week: vs. Maryland (4-6, 1-6)
A Path To Four Teams
There are a few scenarios for four Big Ten College Football Playoff teams:
- Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, USC: The Buckeyes, Hoosiers, and Trojans win out, and Oregon beats Washington in the final week of the season.
- Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, Michigan: Hoosiers, Ducks, and Wolverines win out.
- Ohio State, Indiana, USC, Michigan: Hoosiers, Tojans, and Wolverines win out. USC and Michigan would likely have to root for chaos, but it’s possible.
As it stands, three is the most likely number of teams from the Big Ten. However, there is plenty of football left. Anything can happen.
Main Image: Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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