Virginia and Duke meet in the ACC championship game on Saturday, with merely the fate of the conference in the 2025 playoff at stake.
The CFB World Is Watching Duke on Saturday
Virginia’s Path is Clear
Virginia goes into the game 10-2 overall, 7-1 in conference play, and is the clear top team in the conference standings. The lone conference loss was at home to Wake Forest. The Cavaliers are ranked #17 in the latest College Football Playoff committee rankings. If they win Saturday night in Charlotte, they are going to the playoff. The committee will need to find room for them in the top 12 as a team with only two losses and a conference championship on the resume.
It Gets Messy With Duke
And then there is the Doomsday scenario. Duke worked its way into the game with some help. The Blue Devils handled Wake Forest last week, and the gathered to watch football on the other side of the country. Cal’s win over SMU secured Duke’s spot in the championship game.
But the Blue Devils go into the game at 7-5 overall and 6-2 in ACC play. Beyond the record, there are the resume issues. Among the losses are games dropped to Illinois, UConn, and a ranked Tulane team. The Blue Devils lost a conference game to GA Tech and fell by 17 points to Virginia in mid-November.
If Duke wins Saturday, there are no guarantees it will get into the playoff, even as a conference champion. Reality says it is highly unlikely the Blue Devils get in. There are two-loss teams with better resumes that are on the outside looking in. Jumping a five-loss team over them is inconceivable to many.
But there is more. The trickle-down impact on the conference could be bigger. Miami fans have spent the last few weeks obsessing over how the committee keeps Notre Dame ahead of the 12th-ranked Hurricanes. Miami beat Notre Dame back in early September. There is a whole debate to be had there. But the real shadow looming is this. How can the committee put any ACC team in when the conference champion is not even in? The committee seems to have been downgrading Miami for a few weeks now as they explain their rankings on weekly media conference calls. This would give them the ammunition they have been looking for.
Does anyone think conference officials don’t know what is at stake for the often-beleaguered conference?
How Virginia Got Here
Virginia was picked to finish 14th by the ACC media in the preseason poll. The Cavaliers are now in only their second 10-win season in the 136-year history of the program. It’s also the first time Virginia has ever finished atop the conference in sole possession of the spot. Virginia’s last bowl appearance was in 2019. They made the Fenway Bowl in 2021, but the game was cancelled for Covid-related reasons.
Cavaliers’ quarterback Chandler Morris has thrown for nearly 2,600 yards this season on a 66% completion rate with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. In the one conference loss, Morris was knocked out of the game early.
But it is Virginia’s defense that has been the decider in the back half of the season. The Cavaliers are giving up only 15.4 points per game on average over the last three weeks.
How Duke Got Here
Duke’s offense has relied on the one-two punch of quarterback Darian Mensah and running back Nate Shappard.
Mensah, a transfer from Tulane, has thrown for more than 3,400 yards with 29 touchdowns against just four interceptions. Sheppard is averaging five-and-a-half yards per carry. Last week, in the win over Wake Forest that helped get Duke to the title game, he had 75 yards rushing and two touchdowns. But he also added another 60 yards receiving on five catches.
Familiar Foes
Virginia won the previous match-up last month, 34-17, in Durham. Virginia put up 540 yards of total offense against the Duke defense in that game. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils were held to 255 yards of offense.
In his press conference on Sunday, leading up to championship week, Duke head coach Manny Diaz said, “We played poorly that night.”
Virginia head coach Tony Elliott said of the last meeting, “You got to throw out what you did in the previous game to be honest with you. This game is going to come down to execution, and I’m sure we will get Duke’s best effort. Since our game, you see, they have gotten back in rhythm offensively and been able to score a bunch of points.” Elliott was named ACC coach of the year just moments before the publishing of this article.
The story of the impact this game will have on the rest of the playoff spots is only one of the sidebars. Duke head coach Manny Diaz is believed to be a candidate for the open head coaching job at Penn State.
Main Image: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
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