Who Deserves to be Number One, Ohio State or Indiana?

Halloween is in the rearview, Christmas music is blasting over department store speakers, and people are planting garlic in their gardens. It must be November! On Tuesday, the College Football Playoff committee will unveil its rankings. All rankings leading up to this announcement will be deemed null, as no matter how important the AP Poll may seem, it’s the CFP rankings that ultimately decide who gets to play for it all. This year, the ranking will scrap the “top four champions get the top four seeds” rule it had from last year (thankfully), so there is a near-certain chance that the Big

Ten will own at least two of the top four seeds. But the question remains, who will be number one? With two undefeated Big Ten teams to go with unbeaten Texas A&M and BYU, who deserves to be number one? The Buckeyes and Hoosiers both have strong arguments.

Who Deserves to be Number One, Ohio State or Indiana?

The Case for the Buckeyes

Ever since Week 2, the reigning champion Ohio State Buckeyes have held the top spot with an iron fist. The number-two spot has changed hands four times between four different teams. Ever since the week following their convincing win over then-third-ranked Oregon in Eugene, the Indiana Hoosiers have held the second spot, marking the highest the program has ever been ranked.

Quite possibly the easiest case for Ohio State to retain its position at the top of the rankings is that it is coming off a national title and has yet to lose. At the same time, it has never lost against the spread. The Buckeyes are 7-0-1 ATS with the lone tie coming in a 28-point win over Ohio. Ohio State is led by Heisman Trophy favorite Julian Sayin at quarterback. The redshirt freshman leads the country in completion percentage (80.7%) and has been about as meticulous and efficient as any. There is a lot of football left to play, but Sayin is coming for Bo Nix’s 2023 and Mac Jones’ 2020 marks of 77.4%.

In terms of sheer talent, there are few rosters that stack up. Ohio State has been recruiting at an unprecedented level since Urban Meyer took over in 2012, and Ryan Day not only continued this effort but also built upon it. Obviously, signing top recruiting classes is only part of the equation (SEE: Texas A&M’s 2022 class); you have to develop and retain the talent. Day and his coaching staff have done so.

Ohio State has the nation’s top scoring defense, top total defense, third-best passing defense, and seventh-best rushing defense. Despite losing eight players to the NFL Draft, the Buckeyes’ defense has reloaded. Caleb Downs and Arvell Reese are likely going to be first-round talents, with Sonny Styles, Kayden McDonald, and even Davison Igbinosun putting together potential first-round resumés.

Of the 726 first-place votes recorded in the AP Poll this year, 534 have been cast for the Buckeyes. 73.76% of AP Polls have had Ohio State at the top. That’s perhaps the best indication of which program will be number one on Tuesday.

At the risk of sounding arrogant, there is a real fatigue when it comes to Ohio State. The Buckeyes are constantly in the national championship conversation, and every fan, pundit, and random online writer loves to nitpick them to oblivion. Some of it is just an anti-Ohio State bias, which is what it is. Other points are fair.

The schedule for the Buckeyes hasn’t been the strongest for one reason or another. Thanks to Texas’ recent rise, Ohio State currently holds two wins over currently-ranked teams in the Longhorns and Washington. Penn State was supposed to be a top-five matchup, and that didn’t happen. Plus, no matter if Ohio ends up repeating as the champions of the MAC, it won’t be a data point to help Ohio State.

Ohio State has done what was expected of them. But, they aren’t destroying opponents like Indiana.

However, that may be by design. The Buckeyes are playing a much slower, much more, dare we say, boring style of offense this year. They are tied for the fourth-fewest plays per game at just over 61. Day is content with just matriculating down the field without blowing the doors off opponents.

The committee may not say it, but style points matter. The Buckeyes haven’t racked them up this year.

Where Ohio State lacks in the pizzazz casual fans look for, Indiana does it. Through nine games, Indiana owns the nation’s top scoring offense at 46.4 points per game. With that, the Hoosiers have the third-best total offense with 510.5 yards per game. They are led by their own Heisman Trophy hopeful, Fernando Mendoza. Curt Cignetti has proven that last year’s incredible run to the CFP was anything but a fluke, and his Cal transfer quarterback has played a massive part.

Mendoza has been a revelation for the Hoosiers. He is completing 72.3% of his passes and leads the Big Ten with 25 touchdowns off 2,124 yards and only four interceptions.

Indiana isn’t bereft of talent, either. The Hoosiers have two running backs over 600 yards on the ground and two receivers over 600 yards through the air. Elijah Sarratt leads the Big Ten with 10 touchdowns, and Omar Cooper Jr. isn’t far behind with eight of his own.

The best data point for Indiana is the fact that the Hoosiers have one of the best wins of the year. Indiana traveled to Oregon and dispatched the Ducks, 30-20. The Hoosiers join Alabama, Georgia, and Texas A&M as the contenders with wins over current top 10 teams.

This is going to be the most compelling part of the argument. Indiana’s schedule is pretty weak, just as it was last year. That win over Oregon is the only ranked win Indiana has. With Penn State, Wisconsin, and Purdue left on the schedule, it’s going to be the only ranked win for the Hoosiers, barring Illinois or Iowa jumping into the top 25.

Strength of schedule and strength of record will be hotly discussed when evaluating Indiana. If the Hoosiers win out and win the Big Ten Championship over Ohio State, it’s not going to matter. However, if it loses to Ohio State (or anyone) in Indianapolis, there will be a discussion revolving around seeding. Do they reward multiple SEC teams? If BYU runs the table, they will be in that discussion as well.

That’s about it, however. Indiana has been winning and winning convincingly. Iowa was a bit of a scare, but that was a week after dropping 63 on Illinois and a week before taking down Oregon. Georgia has struggled against weaker SEC teams as well.

Ohio State is going to be the number one team in the nation when the CFP committee unveils the first rankings on Tuesday. The reigning champs have left no doubt to this point. That seven-point win against Texas, while it looked concerning a few weeks ago, continues to age well with Texas’s rise.

Indiana has had an incredible season. The Hoosiers are a legitimate title contender, make no mistake about it. When was the last time you could confidently say that? However, when you stack up the résumés, Ohio State has the edge — for now.

Ohio State has three unranked foes between now and the matchup with Michigan. If Ohio State can run through Purdue, UCLA, and Rutgers and secure its first win over Michigan since before COVID, a one-vs-two matchup in Indianapolis awaits.

All in all, these two teams are unbeaten. If they take care of business, they will be rewarded.

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