The Sweet 16 of the 2022 NCAA Tournament is just three days away and the eight matchups we have are all expected to be exciting. But which teams do the ESPN computers have advancing past the Sweet 16 and into the Elite Eight?
On Monday, the latest projections by ESPN’s computer models were released. The closest matchup is expected to be 2-seeded Duke vs. 3-seeded Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are narrowly predicted to come out on top with a 51.2-percent win probability.
Coming in second is Friday’s matchup between 11-seeded Iowa State and 10-seeded Miami. Iowa State were given a 55.7-percent win probability over the Hurricanes.
Strangely enough, 5-seeded Houston are the favorites over 1-seeded Arizona in the South. The Cougars have a 60.8-percent chance to win over the Wildcats – perhaps because of the insanely close call Arizona had against TCU last night.
Here is the full breakdown of win probability, sorted by matchup order:
- No. 1 Gonzaga (85.5-percent win probability) over No. 4 Arkansas
- No. 2 Villanova (76.5-percent win probability) over No. 11 Michigan
- No. 3 Texas Tech (51.2-percent win probability) over No. 2 Duke
- No. 5 Houston (60.8-percent win probability) over No. 1 Arizona
- No. 3 Purdue (90.7-percent win probability) over No. 15 Saint Peter’s
- No. 1 Kansas (79.0-percent win probability) over No. 4 Providence
- No. 4 UCLA (69.1-percent win probability) over No. 8 North Carolina
- No. 11 Iowa State (55.7-percent win probability) over No. 10 Miami
As you can see, ESPN predicts that tournament darlings Saint Peter’s will bow out in the Sweet 16. They also have Coach K potentially playing his final game in the Sweet 16.
But the potential matchups for the Elite Eight – if all of these predictions are right – will still be compelling.
Gonzaga-Texas Tech, UCLA-Purdue, Houston-Villanova and Kansas-Iowa State would almost all be fun watches.
Are there any predictions ESPN made for the Sweet 16 that you disagree with?