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Amid Justin Jefferson’s new contract, Texans get a steal on Nico Collins extension

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It was never a question of it Justin Jefferson would become the highest-paid receiver in the NFL, but rather if Minnesota would be willing to frontline the money.

Both questions were answered Monday morning with the agreement of a four-year, $140 million contract extension that includes $110 million guaranteed. He’s sticking around in Minneapolis through 2028, thus completely resetting the receiver market.

For the San Francisco 49ers, the price just went up for Brandon Aiyuk.

For the Dallas Cowboys, welcome to a starting point in talks with CeeDee Lamb.

For the Cincinnati Bengals, if there were any talks of keeping both Tee Higgins and Ja’Maar Chase, those talks just ended before they could pick back up.

The trio of receivers are looking to be compensated for their efforts in three-plus years, but also might be able to tack on a few extra dollars given the influx market.

For the Houston Texans, any concerns about paying top dollar for a top receiver ceased last week when Nico Collins inked a three-year deal worth $72.5 million.

And thank god it happened before Monday’s mega-deal. That’s a conversation and headache worth avoiding in 2024.

Collins, the Texans’ third-round pick and first hit of the Nick Caserio, has all the makings of a legitimate No. 1 target, hauling in 80 passes for 1,297 yards and eight touchdowns.

Covering Collins already presented problems for opposing defenses last season. In 15 games, the former Michigan standout ranked sixth in passer rating (128.4) when targeted and sixth in catch rate (73.9%) on in-breaking routes. He also totaled 275 yards on routes over 25-plus yards downfield.

And he’s only one-third of the problem at NRG Stadium this fall. If cornerbacks aren’t locked on him, they’re on breakout rookie Tank Dell.

Not him? Well, maybe they’re targeting four-time Pro Bowler Stefon Diggs, who joined the franchise earlier this offseason. And if attached to Collins, that means someone else is open.

Dell, who nearly broke Andre Johnson’s rookie receiving yard record, is locked up through 2026. So is Dalton Schultz. And Collins, who now averages just over $24 million in annual salary, will be here a year later, the same time Stroud enters the final year of his rookie deal.

By that point, who knows what receivers will be making, but $24 million will look puny compared to the lucrative deals for players who could end up having weaker production.

Who knows if Collins’ breakout 2023 season is his ceiling? When on the field, he’s dealt with inadequate quarterback play that factored into 11 wins over three years.

The injuries don’t help his case, either. Collins missed 12 games in three seasons, including two this past season. At least this time should he miss games, Houston can turn to Diggs or Dell as the top name on Sunday.

Still, the Texans are betting on Collins’ upside. They see a receiver who won’t turn 30 until after his second contract and hasn’t been able to stay on the field consistently.

What would Collins’ numbers be if he played in December? Over 1,300 yards with 10 scores and 100 receptions? How much more would he have wanted now entering a contract year?

 

At this point in their careers, teams know what to expect from Mike Evans, A.J. Brown and Calvin Ridley, who each received significant deals in the offseason. Collins’ upside remains unknown as he enters all top 10 conversations among pass-catchers entering 2024.

That’s a good thing. It’s terrifying, but a positive thing when talking about Collins’ potential. He might be worth $24.1 million.

He might be worth more but on a team-friendly deal. Given his mild attitude internally, it’s hard to imagine Collins’ having a problem with his current contract regardless of what others around him are making.

Jefferson will be paid, but his future as a Super Bowl winner resides in the hands of rookie J.J. McCarthy. Lamb should get a deal done soon, but who knows what happens to Dallas with Dak Prescott’s contract up in the air.

Aiyuk will get his money, but will it be by San Francisco? The same goes for Higgins, who has yet to sign his franchise tag tender. Who knows if the Bengals’ Super Bowl window is open even with Chase paid up?

The Texans have a receiver happy, compensated and locked up on a roster ready to go for a run through the postseason.

That seems like a win-win all around.