Who has the honor of knocking Houston out of the playoffs?
Houston is locked into the fourth seed, but their opponent is quite uncertain. The utterly humiliating loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Christmas vaulted the Baltimore Ravens into the top spot in the AFC North and locked in the winner of that division as the three seed. With Only one game left to go in the 2024 season, the AFC Wild Card picture is still a complete enigma.
There are three teams Houston can face: Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, and Los Angeles Chargers. Each possess their own strengths, weaknesses, and journey to this point in the season. Below I break down each team and provide context into what they bring to the potential table Houston will have to eat at in the Wild Card round.
Couple of notes: The Dolphins, Broncos, and Bengals cannot be the five seed so they aren’t mentioned here. Broncos are currently in at the seven seed, but they cannot advance past the LA Chargers due to their head-to-head losses during the season. All three teams are still fighting for a Wild Card spot, but the best any of them can do is seventh.
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
- Offensive PFF Grade: 18th
- Defensive PFF Grade: 3rd
- Top Players: QB Russell Wilson, DE T.J. Watt, DT Cam Heyward, WR George Pickens
- Biggest Strength: Coaching
- Biggest Weakness: Rookie offensive lineman, injured secondary
- Analysis: Steelers are the odds-on favorite to be the fifth seed in the AFC. At 10-6 and with a huge game against Cincinnati, the Mike Tomlin-led team will be looking to finish the season with a win. It cannot be stated enough his impact, leadership, and ability to get the most out of his players. Namely, Russell Wilson has looked elusive and spry. His top target George Pickens is a master on the sideline while TE Pat Freiermuth is an elite red zone threat. Then their two headed monster in the backfield has racked up 10 TDs and 1,500+ yards.
On defense, their front is fantastic. TJ Watt is elite and is paired with Alex Highsmith. Plus 35 year old Cam Heyward is putting together another absurd season with six sacks from the interior. Their weakness is a litany of injured secondary players.
There are multiple scenarios that would commit the Texans to play the Steelers. Mainly, if Steelers win AND the Ravens win, and if the Steelers lose AND the LA Chargers lose Houston gets to play Pittsburgh.
Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
- Offensive PFF Grade: 1st
- Defensive PFF Grade: 8th
- Top Players: QB Lamar Jackson, RB Derek Henry, S Kyle Hamilton, CB Marlon Humphrey
- Biggest Strength: Run game
- Biggest Weakness: Random blips of poor offensive connectivity
- Analysis: Playing the Ravens, as the Texans recently discovered would be an absolute nightmare. This team is extremely well rounded, d. Their offense is prolific, they have elite defensive backs, and they limit offensive turnovers. Baltimore is playing fantastic football. Three of their five losses have been to playoff teams, so they rarely lose to worse opponents. Their two losses to an elite Jameis Winston game and an early loss to a last minute collapse in Week Two to the Raiders.
Texans would play the Ravens if they lose to the 4-13 Cleveland Browns (again) AND Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Cincinnati Bengals.
Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
- Offensive PFF Grade: 14th
- Defensive PFF Grade: 6th
- Top Players: OT Rashawn Slater, QB Justin Herbert, DE Khalil Mack, DE Joey Bosa
- Biggest Strength: Turnover differential (+11)
- Biggest Weakness: Beating playoff teams (2-5)
- Analysis: The upstart LA Chargers led by new head coach Jim Harbaugh have been a revelation. They’re a well balanced and talented ball club playing gritty football every week. They don’t possess other-worldly talent like Baltimore or have decades of experience like Pittsburgh, but they’ve beaten up on a weak schedule and have done better than the Texans have at this point. Chargers defensive line is among the best in the league, but their linebackers leave much to be desired. Of the three options, Houston desperately wants to face the Chargers. This is the best case scenario.
Texans would play the Chargers if they beat the 4-13 Las Vegas Raiders AND Pittsburgh lose to the Cincinnati Bengals.