Players Houston should avoid in the second round on the NFL Draft
Let’s clear a natural bias before we dive into the article. The NFL Draft is not about selecting the best college football players in an orderly fashion from 1 to 257. This is an exercise in projection, valuation, and estimation. That’s why running backs don’t go until the third round even if they’re an All-American.
The players listed below are other-worldly talented. They possess elite traits that garner the attention worthy of a contract of a million dollars or more right out of college. However, each player has a resume, and that resume can never be question-proof.
I’ve focused on positions of need that Houston is likely to address in the second round with their two picks. So you won’t see me harping on Michael Penix Jr.
Xavier Worthy, WR – Texas
As a Texas Longhorn, I personally and emotionally traversed the Worthy roller-coaster for the past two seasons. The mental lapses in big time moments and simple plays makes you flinch. The highlight reel and NFL Combine performance are tantalizing, but the size, drops, and versatility are enough of an outlier for Houston to prefer to spend one of their two second round picks on another receiver.
Keon Coleman, WR – Florida State (transfer from Michigan State)
Another mouth-watering receiver prospect. Only 50 catches doesn’t excite me. Very impressive hands. Eleven touchdowns on 50 catches is absurd and in no way replicable in the pros. He has one of the lowest yards per route fun, a stat that many of the first round busts in recent years also possessed. 68% of his catches occurred within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Essentially, he’s an extremely expensive screen pass option, go route, and red zone target. The comparisons to D.K. Metcalf are uncanny.
It’s simply too good of a WR class to spend this type of draft capital on a player with this many red flags.
Ennis Rakestraw, CB, Missouri
An ACL tear, separated core muscle, groin injury, and other soft-tissue knocks really hampered this talented CB. Sure, he’s a couple years removed from the ACL, but he’s consistently battling injury and the NFL is only going to be more physical. For being as skinny as he is, a 4.51 forty yard dash and low-quality long jump at the NFL Combine left many scratching their head. He’s a competitor with natural read-and-react gifts who dominated in a competitive SEC. He’s fairly consistent and can play both inside and outside. The one interception over three years of starting isn’t exciting, plus he panics when he’s beaten deep.
Rakestraw is one of those players who I’d rather face as an opponent than risk it in a Texans uniform.
Brandon Dorlus, DT – Oregon
For a player whose tape I like and project as a talent at the next level, I’d be hesitant to draft him to Houston. First, Dorlus is the definition of a “tweener” – he’s nowhere big enough to play over the nose of the defense and on the heavier side to play on the end. He isn’t a scheme fit with Houston despite the talent and athleticism. For instance, if you put him inside Danielle Hunter on the defensive line, any team is going to run the ball straight at that side. At 285 pounds, he doesn’t hold up to double teams well.
For Dorlus’ sake, he’s a better fit on another team.
Jeremiah Trotter Jr., LB – Clemson
“Right place right time, high football IQ, good run stuffer, capable coverage abilities”
All good things needed at the next level for a linebacker, right?
Here’s the thing: he’s 6’0, 228 pounds, and has 31 1/2 inch arms. Those measurables are 18%, 10%, and 33% for the linebacker position. And if you’ve forgotten how percentiles work… the higher the better.
Yes, he’s fast and intelligent enough to get to the right spot, but if he can’t pack a punch when he gets there or gets bulldozed by talented interior lineman it doesn’t bode well at the next level. If he was bigger, faster, and stronger he’d by a sure-fire top end pick, but the measurables are more worrisome than the intangibles.
Michael Hall Jr., DT – Ohio State
Maybe it’s a personal bias, but I don’t want the player in a position where size is the ultimate factor to be, well undersized. Sure, he’s in the mold of these twitched up, leaner, and agile defensive tackles who run the ball. But anyone who watched the Michigan vs. Ohio State game saw why the Wolverines were punishing Ohio State and it was to attack a player like Hall. Yes, NFL offenses aren’t going to be so scheme-ridiculous, but there’s no point to draft a player this early who teams are going to develop their gameplan around. The 42nd and 59th picks should be players opponents have to avoid rather than target. Hall has one of the highest ceilings in this class based on his height, slippery-ness against guards and his speed off the line of scrimmage. He’s either a pro bowl-caliber player or exclusively a third down rusher.
Honorable mention:
T’Vondre Sweat, DT – Texas
Ruke Ohrohoro, DT – Clemson
Jonah Elliss, DE – Utah
Troy Franklin, WR – Oregon