Deep diving into how the Texans can upset the league’s best.
The 2025 Houston Texans are on the precipice of something never before done in franchise history: win a Divisional Round matchup. All that stands in their way is back-to-back Super Bowl champs the Kansas City Chiefs.
Easier said than done.
But let’s get into it. The Chiefs have undeniably cracked the code on how to win in the NFL. Arrowhead Pride’s recent article on their winning formula, which candidly leaned on QB Patrick Mahomes and all-everything DT Chris Jones.
For a team with a 15-2 record, their +59 point differential landed them only 10th. They have squeaked by all season long.
Even so, Kansas City boasts two 2024 All-Pros on the offensive line. The center-guard pair of Joe Thuney and Creed Humphrey have protected Patrick Mahomes well all season. Their issue? Second-year tackle Wanya Morris was benched after allowing unrelenting pressure on Mahomes, leading to Joe Thuney temporarily moving to left tackle. The Chiefs signed veteran DJ Humphries to address these issues, but his own injury issues have hampered his play.
Simply put, the Texans must not only win, but dominate the Chiefs’ left tackle. It’s Mahomes blind side, but also the Chiefs’ Achilles heel on offense. Stymieing Mahomes’ time to throw will limit their ability to pick a part the Texans defense. On the inside, the Texans must hold their own against two All-Pros. Houston features a six-man rotation on the interior. Ageless wonders Denico Autry and Mario Edwards were elite up front against the Los Angeles Chargers and need to cause havoc up front. Winning the line of scrimmage will buoy the Texans chances to upset the Chiefs.
This marks the second-consecutive inclusion on the “First Team” for Thuney, who also earned a spot on the “Second Team” in both 2019 and 2022. Thuney ranked second among all guards in 2024 in terms of pass-blocking according to Pro Football Focus, but his late-season efforts at left tackle were perhaps even more impactful. Thuney, despite lining up across from the likes of edge rushers such as T.J. Watt, Danielle Hunter and Myles Garrett, didn’t allow a sack in his three starts at left tackle this year.
The other kink in the Chiefs’ armor is their run game. There were seven games where they didn’t eclipse 100 yards on the ground. In their two losses to Buffalo and Denver, they only gained 87 yards and 27 yards respectively. As renown for efficiency as Kansas City is, their run game was 22nd in the league. Their rushing attack did improve in the past six games, they ran for 95+ yards in all but one contest. If Houston is going to defeat Kansas City, they’re going to shut down Kareem Hunt and Isaiah Pacheco.
The Chiefs passing attack is death by a thousand cuts. Ten consecutive Pro Bowls for Travis Kelce vaults him into all-time greats territory. He led the Chiefs in targets, receptions, and yards. Against the Texans during the regular season, Kelce only notched five catches for 30 yards. Expect Kelce to be a featured piece in their offensive gameplan. Houston has better run stopping linebackers than pass defending. Whether second year LB Henry To’oTo’o or third year LB Christian Harris guard Kelce will be a critical decision.
Look for the Chiefs to put rookie Xavier Worthy in the slot to free him up. The Texans two best corners play on the outside and are starting backup Myles Bryant in the slot.
Additionally, cornerback Trent McDuffie was also honored with a “Second-Team” selection. He will be tasked with stopping Nico Collins.
Houston showcased their new, more effective offense Saturday against the Chargers. Gone are the seven-step drops and slow developing plays. It’s quick passes, check downs, and slant routes here on out.
Body blows. Body blows. Body blows.
Stroud only threw 10 passes beyond 10 yards downfield and went 50% on those throws including an interception. As concerning as that is, it’s the strategic decision based on the lack of weapons. Even though he wasn’t pushing the ball downfield, he also wasn’t throwing the ball behind the line of scrimmage. Call it a passive aggression. This tactic will be implemented against the Chiefs considering Saturday was the most effective the offense has looked all season.
The touchdown pass from C.J. Stroud to Nico Collins illustrates how quick routes and getting the ball out breaks down defenses with speed.
The Texans front line is finally coming into form. (NOTE: writer has knocked on wood, crossed his fingers, and thrown salt over his shoulder). Tytus Howard’s move to left guard, rookie Blake Fisher’s insert to right tackle, and Juice Scruggs shift to right guard has solidified the offense. Houston has moved to a power gap scheme. They’ve stopped trying to duo block and pulling guards. Instead they are working to get to the linebackers and open lanes vertically rather than horizontally. The best way to visualize this is by putting your fingers together; instead of pulling your fingers apart left to right, they’re moving one hand in front of the other.
Houston used this to minimize the impact of Khalil Mack, but will it work against a Chris Jones? Doubtful they’ll be able to pull this off twice in a row, but instead of investing two players to stop Jones, they’ll be investing just one with the goal of not running at him.
I don’t have to tell you that beating Kansas City is a tall, tall task. They’re the kings of the league and are coming off a bye. Houston can’t let their game wreckers do just that. Attacking the left tackle position, minimizing Chris Jones’ impact, and leaning into the revamped offensive line are the keys to success.