What might he get, and should he do it?
Welcome to March, when the past NFL season officially ends and the NFL enterprise celebrates the New Year. No, there won’t be any balls dropped in Times Square to mark this occasion [insert joke about the poor QB play of the New Jersey teams that claim New York here], but it is a big deal for all the offseason fun. Free agents can leave their teams, listening unofficially to offers in the “tampering” period, before officially accepting those offers that they’ve probably already agreed to, etc. On top of that, with the combine out of the way, draft porn season is upon us all, as we go through all the variations of mock drafts, likely to be both very right and very wrong.
Among those teams in the game of mock drafting will be the Houston Texans. This year, they hold seven total picks, leading off with the 25th pick in the first round. For a team that is coming off back-to-back division titles/divisional round appearances, Houston does have a series of needs, especially at interior offensive line, interior defensive line and wide receiver. After last season’s massive spending spree, Houston does not have a lot of significant cap room, so any free agency moves will likely come at the expense of players currently on the roster. Previous articles have already opined on who might be cut/traded/etc. Also, with seven picks, Houston needs to hit on those picks to obtain that critical depth/talent they will need if they plan to break through to the previously unvisited realm of the conference championship. Yet, will Houston still have just seven picks when the draft comes around in April?
Consider the actions of Nick Caserio. As an alum of the Belichick system in New England, the team made a habit of trading out of the late first round to obtain more day two picks. Given that the Patriots usually found themselves at the back of the first round, and usually up against the salary cap, maximizing value for lower-drafted rookie players made sense. This held true for a team that mainly looked at the draft to reload depth at those positions that didn’t require a premium draft investment (i.e. franchise QB). One can argue just how effective the Patriots were with those draft picks, especially in the later years, but for the longest time, it worked.
While Houston is a long way from being in the exact same situation as the New England Patriots (mainly those multiple Super Bowls), the biggest Texans’ needs do not necessarily require a super-high draft pick. Quality depth/future players, especially the interior defensive/offensive line can be found on day two/day three. Also, in using the various draft value charts out there, a late first rounder is not all that much more valuable than an upper-level day two pick, and if that late first rounder can get parlayed into multiple later draft day pick, that is more ammo for trades later on in the current draft/plans for future drafts.
For Nick Caserio, moving around in the draft is part of his GM playbook. Moving up, down, all around, he will find a way to get the players he wants. While his early moves sought to build up a bad team, his actions now need to build up a contender, while mindful of cap limitations. Such was the case last season, when Houston aggressively spent in free agency, and traded their first round pick to Minnesota to use on other trades/depth drafting. One of those second rounders went to Buffalo for Stefon Diggs. The other yielded Kamari Lassiter, arguably the best underrated DB in the 2024 draft.
Would Nick Caserio want to sacrifice his late 1st for another couple of day two picks? This draft is not loaded with superstars, but the depth is considerable, with some experts seeing little difference between a player at 11 and 50 for this year’s draft. For a team with cap limitations, the idea of getting quality talent at a lower price is hard to pass up. Granted, Houston did try to trade back into the 1st round last season after the Minnesota and Buffalo trades, but that was a much about a draft that went against projections. Likely with quality talents at positions of need that day two is likely to offer, multiple second or third rounders might be in Houston’s best interest. Or, if they can’t get multiple day two picks this year, load up on some picks for next year as trade bait this year or next.
There are a lot of options out there, and if there is anything certain about Caserio, he will not likely stand pat with the current Texans’ draft hand. While Houston’s initial free agency moves will dictate its draft actions, it would be surprising if Houston doesn’t at least look at the possibility of trading its late first rounder to load up on some more additional picks. If nothing else, he won’t scoop this author out of an offseason article calling for him to trade the first-round pick this time…
Still, this but one writer’s opinion. What say you, the brilliant minds on the other side of the screen? Think Caserio will trade that first-rounder? Should he? Let your respectful takes populate the message boards below: