The final week of draft prep can keep any Texans fan up at night.
The third edition of one of my favorite articles of the draft cycle. This article came about from my fandom of Meek Mill’s Dreams and Nightmares and how much hope and fear is wrapped up in the NFL Draft process.
Several dreams and nightmares last year did come true. “One of the top cornerbacks falls into the second” was a dream and turned into Kamari Lassiter. Then unfortunately, Houston waited too long to draft a defensive tackle. Now, that presents as one the biggest needs on the defense. Houston also took another offensive lineman on day two – Blake Fisher – who was the worst PFF graded tackles in the league last year.
With less than a week to go until the NFL Draft, let’s get into that REM cycle and go over the Dreams and Nightmares for the 2025 Draft.
Dream: Texans can find three legitimate starters in a class of rotational, depth pieces
Offensive lineman, defensive tackle, and wide receiver. The Texans only have three true needs to address and possess four selections in the first 89 picks. If they can find a starter at each position, they will fill the biggest needs on the team and set the stage for a deep playoff run. They found three last year in Kamari Lassiter, Blake Fisher, and Calen Bullock and need to repeat that success in 2025. Just three starters away from an elite roster – that’s how far we’ve come in three seasons.
Nightmare: Minnesota Vikings trade down and that team selects a lineman
The Vikings possess only four picks in the entire draft. One of those being the 24th pick – directly in front of the Texans. They are the most likely team in the first round to trade back and reload on picks. Any one of the Rams, Lions, Chiefs, or Commanders could trade up and snag a lineman before the Texans inevitably do at 25. Ideally, the Vikings trade with a team needing a QB and all is forgiven.
Dream: Kelvin Banks Jr falls to the Texans at 25
Multiple offensive lineman falling in the draft is the Texans biggest and best dream. Pie in the sky, shooting for the stars. A month ago, Texas Longhorn Kelvin Banks Jr. was a top five pick. He has been available in both the SB Nation Mock Draft and the live Discord Mock Draft I took part in two weeks ago.
Nightmare: A run on capable WRs occurs in Round 2
This WR class is this and lacks elite talent at the top too. Even this class’ top prospect Tetairoa McMillan has serious detractors. That lack of talent could actually lead to a run on the most capable ones in the early second round due to scarcity. If the Texans select an offensive tackle in the first and the receivers start coming off the board early on day two, they may need to wait until more well-rounded but low-ceiling prospects are available in the fifth round.
Dream: Texans find a long-term starting running back to replace Mixon and Pierce
This running back class is among the best in the past decade. There are seven running backs I have ranked above ANYONE in last year’s class. Ashton Jeanty, Quinshon Judkins, TreVeyon Henderson, DJ Giddens, Omarion Hampton, RJ Harvey, and Kaleb Johnson are all elite RBs that will start in the league. There’s arguably 15 future NFL running backs in this class; almost one for half of the league. Houston doesn’t have an urgent need at running back, but Pierce is a free agent after this season and Mixon will be 30. It’s high time the Texans invested in this position.
Nightmare: Texans use their extra third round pick as draft capital to move up
Houston received a third round pick in their trade with the Commanders for Laremy Tunsil. This draft pick will always be synonymous with the pick, among the others. GM Nick Caserio is elite at finding talent in the third round: Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Christian Harris, and Calen Bullock are all starters for the Texans. If they choose to incorporate that pick in a trade package to move up in the first or second round, they could lose out on the chance to add another starter.
Dream: Texans land one of their Top 30 Visit Defensive Tackles in the Third Round.
The ‘Top 30 Visits’ are the players the team requests in-person meetings with the weeks before the draft. They’ve usually considered top considerations or smoke screens. Here’s who they’ve met with on the d-line:
- Kenneth Grant, Michigan – mid-round 1
- TJ Sanders, South Carolina – round 2
- Shemar Turner, Texas A&M – round 2-3
- Tyleik Williams, Ohio State – late round 1, early round 2
- Alfred Collins, Texas – round 2
- Joshua Farmer, Florida State – round 4
This defensive line class is the deepest group in the draft. Outside of Grant and Farmer, this group is full of second round prospects. If any one of them are available in the third, it would give the Texans another valuable asset on the defensive front. My personal favorite is South Carolina’s TJ Sanders, who I selected in the third round in my previous mock.
Nightmare: Seven lineman go before the Texans 25th pick
Those most likely would be: Will Campbell, Armand Membou, Kelvin Banks Jr., Grey Zabel, Josh Simmons, Donovan Jackson, and Josh Conerly Jr. That would leave Tyler Booker as the only bona-fide first round talent left. Booker is a wall of a human, but athletically limited. Houston would benefit from having multiple options of lineman in the first round so they can select “their guy”.