Does this mean mock draft season is over?
Unlike past seasons, this year has been wildly straightforward. Offensive lineman was already a need before free agency when the Senior Bowl kicked off and it has since become an unmitigated necessity. How much draft capital Houston will throw at the problem is unknown, but anything beats what’s currently on deck to protect C.J. Stroud.
Predicting what Nick Caserio will do during the draft is like going to Vegas thinking you’ll really stick it to the Bellagio this time… Last year was the anomaly: I predicted Kamari Lassiter, Blake Fisher, and Cade Stover throughout mock draft season, and I identified Calen Bullock as a perfect fit. My back is still sore from all the pats it received. This year? It’s likely down to one of a handful of offensive linemen in the first, a defensive tackle on day two, and two or three offensive weapons scattered throughout the draft. Or Caserio throws caution to the wind, takes a receiver in the first round, and all hell breaks loose faster than work piling up the second you take PTO.
Regardless of what the crystal ball says or palm readers foretell, this final seven-round mock draft is what I predict Nick Caserio will do—so take that into consideration. I’ve pulled the reins on trades to keep this mock more in line with other hypotheticals. That said, enjoy this one last mock draft before the real thing kicks off tomorrow.
Previous BRB Houston Texans Mock Draft Database:
Live Brett Kollman Discord Draft (Rounds 1 – 3)
Live Brett Kollman Discord Draft (Rounds 4 – 7)
TRADE
Detroit Receives:
– Round 1, Pick 25
Houston Receives:
– Round 1, Pick 28
– Round 4, Pick 130
Round 1, Pick 28: Josh Conerly Jr, OT – Oregon
The Detroit Lions move up to select James Pierce Jr., pair him with an ailing Aidan Hutchinson, and send the Texans a fourth-round pick in return.
Whether this pick comes at 25 or 28; there are only two prospects I imagine the Texans taking in the first round: Alabama’s Tyler Booker or Oregon’s Josh Conerly Jr. Based on positional value, athleticism, traits, and upside, Conerly is the pick here.
Conerly was my pick for the Texans all the way back in late January when the draft season began. Life truly does come full circle. Conerly received his own prospect analysis which you can find here: Draft Prospect: Josh Conerly Jr.
So, what does Conerly bring to the table? A proven yet still-developing left tackle prospect who fit perfectly with what the Texans need. His run blocking needs to improve, but he is only 21 years old and has already seen significant growth from is Sophomore to Junior seasons.
Round 2, Pick 58: Jack Bech, WR – TCU
Texans find their next WR2 and complete compliment to both Nico Collins and Tank Dell as a ‘Power Slot WR’ who can play a bit outside.
I’ve made a full 180-degree turn on Bech throughout the draft process. Bech had a breakout season at TCU after two unremarkable seasons at LSU. While he is extremely limited off the line of scrimmage, his catch radius and acceleration through his route are among the best in the class.
Bech’s best play is in the slot, but most of his snaps are out wide. According to Matt Harmon of Reception Perception, Bech is in the 85th percentile against man coverage and 91st percentile against press coverage.
Round 3, Pick 79: Gunnar Helm, TE – Texas
The best player available was WR Kyle Williams, but it’s too rich after selecting Bech. Guard Tate Ratelege just went off the board too. The defensive line talent has plateaued and most remaing players should be available in 10 picks when Houston is up next.
That lead me to evaluating the talent remaining at tight end. While Oregon’s Terrance Ferguson visited the Texans on a Top 30 Visit recently, his run blocking woes eliminate him from offensive coordinator Nick Caley’s offense.
Gunnar Helm has the best hands in this class and is a freak athlete down the field. He is the best blend of route running and run blocking remaining. His seven TDs tied for sixth in the nation and his missed tackles forced was 8th. Helm is a hands catcher and decisive runner downfield.
Helm provides Stroud with another weapon in the pass game. If Houston can turn Helm’s willing run blocking into a legitimate skill, he will develop into a first-rate starting tight end.
Round 3, Pick 89: Vernon Broughton, DT – Texas
After three consecutive offensive picks, Houston finally turns to defense with their first selection on that side of the ball. The top three remaining defensive tackles were Jordan Phillips, Vernon Broughton, and Jamaree Caldwell. Phillips gives off a little too much gasps Ross Blacklock energy, and Caldwell doesn’t fit the Texans’ 4-3 front.
Broughton, a long-bodied defensive tackle at 6’5”, has been a reliable rotational piece in Austin for four seasons. While he wasn’t often asked to get after the quarterback, he consistently generated instant pressure off the snap.
His height can occasionally work against him when he rises too high off the line, but his speed and acceleration helped him mask that at the college level. Broughton flashes elite hand usage—though when it doesn’t land, he can be neutralized.
A Houston native (Cypress Ridge High School), Broughton brings length and major upside to an aging interior defensive line.
Round 4, Pick 130: Miles Frazier, OG – LSU
Few players have made such a sudden and well-timed push as Frazier has this week.After slowly slipping down draft boards all offseason, the film junkies have turned Frazier into GameStop and made the right guard a ton of money.
At 6’6, 317 pounds, Frazier is an enormous prospect for the interior offensive line and is forced inside due to 33rd percentile arms and 9th percentile hand size (how is that even possible?). He has started over 50 games between FIU and LSU and played four positions across the offensive line. His future as a right guard with swing-tackle capability fits the Texans’ needs immensely.
Frazier won’t start right away, but that is Caserio’s plan with this pick; develop an immensely experienced player into a long-term starter.
Round 5, Pick 166: Zy Alexander, CB – LSU
Technically, Quincey Riley was available, but he’s a Day Three favorite pick who’ll likely go earlier than PFF or CBS project. And no, I didn’t intend to select two Longhorns and then two Tigers.
Alexander needed time to recover from the ACL tear that ended his 2023 season. Although his slow 40 time shows he’s less athletic than ideal, his ball instincts, aggression at the point of attack, and coverage experience make him an ideal depth piece in a strong Texans secondary. Houston needs another cover corner behind Kamari Lassiter and Derek Stingley Jr., and Alexander fits the bill as a talented developmental prospect.
Round 7, Pick 236: Fadil Diggs, EDGE – Syracuse
A former two-time team captain at Texas A&M and New Jersey’s Gatorade Player of the Year in high school, Diggs treated his grad-transfer season like a pro, dominating in the ACC. He has NFL size and speed, plus the versatility of Georgia first-rounder Jaylon Walker. As the heart and soul of Syracuse’s elite defense, he lined up both as an off-ball linebacker and a stand-up defensive end.
Diggs plays high… it’s evident. But when you also watch the tape you see a guy who simply loves football. He lacks the twitchy athleticism to win at the next level, but gets the most out of each play with great effort. Houston doesn’t need Diggs to win right away, but he would benefit from a year on the practice squad working on fundamentals before becoming a third down pass rusher.
Round 7, Pick 241: Jo’Quavious Marks, RB – USC
Marks was featured in FizzyJoe’s Top Five RB Draft Targets for the Houston Texans article earlier this week. Marks is a home-run hitting back who caught over 47 receptions this past season; something the Texans lack from their running backs.
Marks played three seasons of SEC ball at Miss. State before transferring to USC. Imagine going from Starkville, Mississippi to Los Angeles…
Marks is a completely different running back than what is on the roster and can be a threat in the return game. While Marks doesn’t possess the vision or interior running style to be a three-down back, he can win with speed and a devastating juke move when timed correctly.
There you have it folks. Houston makes one trade in this mock, but I expect more from wily Nick Caserio. It has been an absolute blast covering the draft so far and hope you’ve enjoyed it too. Be sure to stop by the site throughout draft day to follow along as I update the Top Needs Big Board coming out tomorrow before the draft kicks off.