Houston Texans NFL Power Rankings: Wildcard Weekend

Where do the Texans land in the final power rankings of the regular season?

Welcome to the final week of NFL power rankings! From the heights of Mount Hype that we reached in August to the cavernous depths we’ve found our confidence in the Houston Texans as of late, this season has been anything but predictable for the team of the hour. Although they’ve found the same win total of last year, this was not nearly the kind of season that could be compared to the 2023 Cinderella Story team, which went from bottom five to top five by wildcard weekend. This year’s Texans squad started the season being seen as a bona-fide Super Bowl contender, to middling playoff opponent, to fringe-playoff opponent, and now finally is seen as the most beatable division champion.

How did this all happen? What happened to the C.J. Stroud that we knew could carve up an playoff-caliber defense?

While there’s plenty of speculation, analysis, and debate about what was the cause of this offensive dysfunction in year two, I usually come away with two primary bullet points:

• The offensive line was a significant problem this year; more so than last year.
• Stroud was just straight up worse this year. Whether this is a result of his offensive line or a result of his own doing is up for debate. Regardless, he was less accurate, less decisive, and more likely to scramble out of the pocket and make a poor decision with the football than he was before.

At the end of the day, these two points casted a shadow over the Texans offense all season long, and it only grew larger as time went on. So, with these issues and now Houston entering the playoffs with a litany of injuries on the offensive side of the ball, and you have a recipe for Houston to be three-point underdogs coming into a wildcard game that they are hosting! It certainly is hard to see Houston as underdogs in a season as big as this, but I guess we’ve already seen how the team responds to that from last year!

Even though many are skeptical of the Texans, I see this Los Angeles Chargers game as an opportunity for them to prove to the league that they are still a team that can’t be toyed with. Buffalo learned that at the beginning of the season, and Miami learned that at the end of the season. The Chargers may be the darling team of many NFL fans out there, but they are in for a rude awakening in Houston on Saturday. Here’s where the Houston Texans are ranked in the final week of the 2024 NFL regular season:

NFL.COM:

14. Houston Texans (10-7) (Last Week: 14)

Even knowing the starters mostly got the chance to rest up in Week 18, it’s not at all out of bounds to wonder how this Texans team is going to score major points offensively in a wild-card game against the Chargers. The Bolts have allowed the fewest points in the NFL this season, and Houston’s issues on the line and at receiver have held the offense back significantly down the stretch. In their three games prior to the regular-season finale, the Texans scored a total of just 41 points, with two of those games coming at home. That’s worrisome, even if all three opponents featured worthy defenses. The spotlight is also shining brightly on C.J. Stroud after a regressive Year 2. Then again, the Texans might have something to exploit if the Chargers’ own OL issues continue to fester. Perhaps Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter can heat up the edges and kickstart the squad defensively. It seems like Houston’s going to need some kind of spark from outside the offense.

– Eric Edholm

SPORTS ILLUSTRATED:

15. Houston Texans (10–7)

Last week’s ranking: No. 15

Last week’s result: beat Tennessee, 23–14

This week: vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Another year, another iteration of the Houston Texans playing at 3:30 p.m. ET on a Saturday in the playoffs. Congratulations to all who celebrate. While I’m not optimistic about their chances against a more physical Chargers team, this game is an ideal palate cleanser that does not, in any way, feature a B-level starting quarterback who we have to talk ourselves into watching.

– Conor Orr

THE ATHLETIC:

15. Houston Texans (10-7)

Last week: 15

Sunday: Beat Tennessee Titans 23-14

One lesson learned: Pump the brakes

“If the Texans can survive being this offseason’s hot team, it could be a special season in Houston.” That’s what it said in our pre-training camp power rankings, which had the Texans at No. 4. They did not, and it has not been. Wide receiver injuries, regression by C.J. Stroud and five losses by eight or fewer points undid Houston and should teach a lot of us that we got too excited about last year’s 10-7 record and big playoff win over the Browns. Houston’s point differential (zero) is the second-lowest among playoff teams.

– Josh Kendall

BLEACHER REPORT:

14. Houston Texans (10-7, AFC No. 4 Seed)

Last Week: 14

Week 18 Result: Won at Tennessee 23-14

After a miserable performance against the Baltimore Ravens on Christmas, Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans decided to play his starters in Week 18 despite having nothing of consequence to play for.

It was a decision that offensive lineman Tytus Howard agreed with.

“Everybody’s been preparing like we’re playing,” Howard told reporters. “That’s the goal, go out there and put some good football on tape and get ready for the playoffs. We have no intention of coming out and treating this week as a time for guys to rest. We’ve been putting in some good work this week and we’re all prepared to play.”

Many of those starters exited early, but the Texans accomplished their goal—ending their skid before the postseason begins.

But starting next week, the Texans don’t get to play any more AFC South tomato cans.

Analyst’s Take

The Texans are AFC South champions once again, though that says more about the state of their division than about this team. C.J. Stroud took a step back in 2024, as did the team as a whole.

Injuries at wide receiver didn’t help matters, and the offensive line was a liability. However, Stroud never appeared to find the comfort level or the rhythm that he had by the end of last season. I’m not sure he can rediscover it during the playoffs. Houston deserves to be in the postseason, but its chances of going far feel slim. — Knox

– Gary Davenport, Maurice Moton, Kristopher Knox, Brent Sobleski

CBS SPORTS:

14. Texans (10-7) (Last Week: 14)

They head into the playoffs as the division winner with the most questions. Can C.J. Stroud turn it on in the playoffs?

– Pete Prisco

YAHOO! SPORTS:

15. Houston Texans (10-7) (Last Week: 15)

The Texans have made the playoffs eight times, and all eight times they have had their first game at 3:30 p.m. CT on the Saturday of wild-card weekend. That’s funny. They get a tough matchup this year against a Chargers team that has been better than the Texans most of the season.

– Frank Schwab

USA TODAY:

12. Houston Texans (Last Week: 16)

A group that appeared to be on a steep ascent toward a championship level – something that H-Town hasn’t enjoyed since the Oilers were an AFL powerhouse in the 1960s – has decidedly plateaued after what seemed a promising breakthrough in 2023. Offensive injuries and a too-often disjointed attack – one often undermined by a shaky line – have led to something of a regression by QB C.J. Stroud, last season’s Offensive Rookie of the Year. The defense has been slightly more dependable overall yet has also surrendered at least 26 points in four of Houston’s last eight games.

The home game conferred by the AFC South crown could help, as might a wild-card matchup against a Chargers team that also doesn’t have much collective experience in these situations. But hard to envisage a best-case scenario for the Texans beyond a second consecutive trip to the divisional round.

– Nate Davis

PRO FOOTBALL TALK:

14. Texans (No. 14; 10-7): The best team in the NFL’s worst division gets a chance to prove it belongs.

– Mike Florio

AVERAGE RANKING: 14.13 (LAST WEEK: 14.56)

It’s nice seeing the Texans rise up a bit in the final rankings, but this is likely just a necessary bump since they’re a playoff team, and is still quite a distance away from where they began this season. Everything about this season for the Texans has, miraculously, felt like a step backward. I think this caught a lot of fans, Texans fans and NFL analysts alike, a bit off guard considering how high the Texans were once ranked back in September.

This gradual souring of opinion on the Texans can even be charted week-by-week. For each Houston Texans NFL Power Rankings article I posted, I gave an “average ranking” to the Texans based off of the eight or nine publications I included in that week’s respective post. I’ve included each week’s average ranking below:

Week 1: 7.13 (Win over Indianapolis Colts)

Week 2: 6.33 (Win over Chicago Bears)

Week 3: 3.33 (Loss to Minnesota Vikings)

Week 4: 6.88 (Win over Jacksonville Jaguars)

Week 5: 7.11 (Win over Buffalo Bills)

Week 6: 4.78 (Win over New England Patriots)

Week 7: 4.89 (Loss to Green Bay Packers)

Week 8: 7 (Win over Indianapolis Colts)

Week 9: 6.56 (Loss to New York Jets)

Week 10: 11.4 (Loss to Detroit Lions)

Week 11: 12.67 (Win over Dallas Cowboys)

Week 12: 12.44 (Loss to Tennessee Titans)

Week 13: 13.11 (Win over Jacksonville Jaguars)

Week 14: 13.22 (Bye Week)

Week 15: 13.22 (Win over Miami Dolphins)

Week 16: 11.89 (Loss to Kansas City Chiefs)

Week 17: 12.57 (Loss to Baltimore Ravens)

Week 18: 14.56 (Win over Tennessee Titans)

Week 19: 14.13 (Wildcard Weekend)

Oh, what hopes we had at the beginning of the season! You can really tell where consensus around the Texans started to shift on this timeline, too; from Week 7 to Week 11, Houston went 2-3, 0-2 against playoff teams, and only passed for over 200 yards once in that five-game stretch. Following this rough patch in the middle of the season, Houston fell from spot 4.89 the whole way down to 12.67; a 7.78-point drop! It was absolute mania after their loss to the New York Jets (Houston’s third loss to the Jets in four seasons).

But I really think the turning point of the season was their loss to the Detroit Lions the following week. In that game, the Houston Texans revealed all of their warts to a national audience, and forced them all to reconcile with what was one of the most impressive feats in NFL history: a Texans defense that forced five turnovers in one game (all of which were interceptions) paired with a Texans offense that only scored six points off them in total. Six Points! Not only that, but one of Houston’s major calling cards of not scoring in the second half appeared here, as well!

All of that excitement and momentum drummed up in the first half…amounting to a complete, incomprehensible, incredible half-hour of agonizing football death. All of the mystery and intrigue of what could possibly be ailing the Texans was laid bare in front of everyone, who were forced to watch a team slowly lose grip on what should have been a dominant win over one of the league’s best teams. It was, in a word, crushing.

After that, many NFL analysts and much of the public checked out on the Texans. Banished from their Super Bowl contender highs and into the fringe playoff primordial soup of teams that have “frisky quarterbacks” and social media teams with a larger following than their players’, they would never breach the top ten again in the regular season. And could you blame them? After watching an offense with Stroud, Joe Mixon, and Nico Collins struggle to score over 20 points nearly every game, why trust them more than a team like the Los Angeles Chargers? Why trust a mistake-prone team like the Texans when you can put your trust in the very consistent, very palatable Jim Harbargers?

It’s because of this defense, that’s why. Yeah they lost that game to the Lions, but they forced five interceptions out of Jared Goff when the Lions were at the peak of their powers. They got double-digit sack seasons from both Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson, Jr. They needed rookie defensive backs Kamari Lassiter and Calen Bullock to hit the ground running, and they excelled. They needed linebacker Henry To’oTo’o to step up into the starting role after Christian Harris went down in training camp, and he led the team in tackles this season. The story of the 2024 Houston Texans was not written by the missteps of their offense, but by the resilience of their defense. Their ability to pick themselves off the mat over and over again this season and keep the Texans in winning-position regardless of opponent was something to behold as the season started turning into a rollercoaster. When things started going awry, Houston’s defense kept it all together, and they’re going to do that again this weekend when they host the Chargers on Saturday night!

That’s right, get those khakis ready, Jimmy Harbaugh! You’re gonna be squatting down to see 60 minutes of the roughest, meanest, most cartilage-free hard-nosed football you’ve ever seen, and it’ll be the Houston Texans rising from the heap. Stroud and Mixon will do just enough to get this offense back on track and in the lead, and from there, Houston’s mighty defensive line and linebackers will take the wheel. Once that happens, it will be a long, ugly road to that all-too-Texans 23-14 final score, and we’ll be celebrating another week in the power rankings! See you all next year, GO TEXANS!