It’s officially draft month. Mover over March Madness, it’s our time to shine.
Houston enters the 2024 draft with the second lowest pick out of any team. This is a no-trades mock draft considering Nick Caserio is the bane of all mock drafter’s existence .
The offseason has featured an overhaul of the defense including five potential new starters. The offense remains fairly identical, which has some analysts believing that this will be an offense-heavy draft. I am frankly not one of those humans.
In my second to last mock draft of the year, y strategy is simple; solidify positions of need with the best players available early. Add depth on offense. For receiver, if one falls to us early don’t hesitate, but the guys on the roster can get the job done.
Round 2, Pick 42 (from MIN): Tyler Nubin, S – Minnesota
Could Nubin go in the first? Yes. Should Nubin be the first safety off the board? Absolutely. The question will be where teams value safety as a position and where they see Nubin falling in that group. Particularly, there’s a ton of talent in free agency, making Nubin less valuable to patient teams.
Houston pairs Nubin with Jalen Pitre and adds a legitimate ball hawk in the secondary. While corner is a bit more of a concern, safety has yet to be addressed in free agency. Plus, Nubin will be the best player available. Nubin received PFF’s top coverage grade for the entire position in 2023. He led the nation’s safeties with five interceptions. Importantly, his Missed Tackles Percentage was 3.7%…. to put it into reference most the next three safeties on the board all had 10 – 17%.
Round 2, Pick 59: Braden Fiske, DT – Florida State
One month ago I had Fiske going to the Texans in the third round. Just last week ESPN had Fiske going to Houston with the 42nd pick. I refuse to believe that Fiske jumped 40 spots through the draft process – and that’s coming from a big fan and supporter of his.
Teams will be turned off by the fact that he’s 24 and took half a season at Florida State to acclimate after transferring. Fiske has the best leg drive for a defensive lineman in the draft and his big 6’4 frame makes him a unique prospect compared to the rest of the class. The former Western Michigan transfer resolves Houston’s interior pass rusher questions and adds a high-octane asset to the defensive line group.
Round 3, Pick 86 (from PHI): Dominic Puni, OT – Kansas
Don’t you dare roll your eyes at me. As long as I’m writing mocks for Houston this season, they’ll be drafting a mid-round offesnive lineman. Texans desperately need to replace George Fant and Josh Jones at tackle.
Puni moved from left guard to left tackle and excelled at the role. He’s a wide body and ideal frame for the position. He’s hyper-athletic and performed well at the NFL Combine. He also brings exceptional run blocking prowess, something Houston lacks as a whole.
A high-upside developmental offensive tackle prospect that can learn alongside two entrenched starters.
Round 4, Pick 123 (from CLE): Cedric Gray, LB – UNC
Gray has the production and experience to play in DeMeco Ryans’ system. If Houston passes on Edgerrin Cooper in the second round, Gray is the closest model in the draft. Gray needs somewhere where he can learn and develop while still getting playing time.
He’s an effective blitzing linebacker and is an athlete first, linebacker second. For a LB with as much experience as Gray has, he need significant tutelage on his tackling form. Gray does tend towards a hip drop tackle, which will be highly scrutinized this next season.
Gray will be able to backup Azeez Al-Shaair or compete for the starting role of weak side linebacker with Henry To’o To’o.
Round 4, Pick 127: Tyrone Tracy, RB – Purdue
In a finicky running back class, Houston takes the most intriguing and esoteric prospect on the board.
Tracy was a former wide receiver at Iowa before transferring to Purdue to also play receiver. He switched to running back this past season and finally put it all together. Tracy had five straight weeks of touchdowns in September. His rise to an NFL Draft prospect has been fast as teams must project his talent with only one year of RB experience.
Tracy fits perfectly in Houston. He needs two seasons as a committee back with pass catching priorities before taking on a full time role. He adds high upside to the running back room without unsettling the position group that has already added Joe Mixon.
Round 6, Pick 188 (from MIN): Tip Reiman, TE – Illinois
Arguably one of my favorite prospects, Reiman has the height, weight, strength, and speed to develop into a TE1. He was a top five performer in most events at the NFL Combine. Fun fact – he was the only tight end to do the bench press at the NFL Combine – and put up 28 reps. I absolutely love that.
He was a former walk-on who became team captain in 2023. That too, I love.
So, what’s the issue? Production. 19 catches each of the last two seasons. Offense was putrid at Illinios, but Reiman doesn’t have great acceleration and is sluggish getting out of his stance. Reiman is more of a lumbering running than smooth operator.
Reiman would challenge Andrew Beck as the teams blocking back and would immediately be the best blocking tight end on the roster.
Round 7, Pick 238 (from NO): Evan Anderson, DT – Florida Atlantic
Doubling down? Absolutely. Nick Caserio’s Draft Strategy includes picking the same position twice to turn a weakness to a strength and build depth. Evan Anderson is a HULKING defensive tackle. If Houston misses out on T’Vondre Sweat, Anderson is the poor man’s version at 6’3, 350 pounds.
Anderson’s film against Clemson is quite telling. He’s an absolute unit and immovable object against the run. However, the immovable property also is evident in his pass rush. Anderson is more of a big body than an athlete. He needs legitimate technique training and could use a full year on the practice squad, but if Anderson hits Houston gets a second-round frame with a seventh round price tag.
Round 7, Pick 247: Bub Means, WR – Pitt
Picking seventh rounders is fool’s gold. Caserio also uses seventh round picks as trade sweeteners, making this pick feel all the less germane. So far, we’ve knocked out defensive line fairly thoroughly, added depth at running back, tackle, and tight end on offense, and a strong rotational linebacker.
For those who desperately wanted a WR early in the draft, sorry folks. Houston is extremely set at the position. Houston does add one player to the group who possesses possibly the best name in franchise history. Means performed well at the Shrine Bowl. He knows how to work the field and is a hands catcher first and foremost. His acceleration is fairly impressive given his draft evaluation and has the make and model of a pure deep threat if given the opportunity.