This is not where the Houston Texans thought they would be.
Just a few months ago, the franchise sat at 1-12-1 with few roadblocks in their way to a very believable offseason plan. The AFC South franchise would enter the off-season with the first pick of every round in the NFL draft, select their franchise quarterback, spend ample cap space, and attempt to attract a quality young coaching candidate to turn the corner on a rebuild that had become stagnant.
Of course, that did not happen. Houston (3-13-1) won two of their final three games and ultimately forfeited the first overall selection to the Chicago Bears (3-14) on a fourth-and-20 miracle touchdown from quarterback Davis Mills. The team landed top head coaching candidate DeMeco Ryans just a few weeks later but the ripple effects of those wins have muddied the water significantly for the direction of the franchise.
Tennessee Titans former GM Jon Robinson was really out there playing chess last April if you think about it pic.twitter.com/hnaPAOjwvQ
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) April 18, 2023
There is officially one week to go until the draft and there’s not much anyone can agree on today of what to expect from the Texans next week with their second overall pick.
The unanimous belief is that the Texans were infatuated with Alabama quarterback Bryce Young for some time. According to Aaron Wilson from KPRC-TV, the team discussed potentially trading the 12th overall selection or a 2024 future first-round pick to Chicago for the right to move up in the draft before they were outbid by the Carolina Panthers.
After that, the board is in disarray. Some reporting says the Texans may have Kentucky’s Will Levis as the No. 2 quarterback on their board. Others have said the building is split on Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud. The majority opinion has somehow become that the team could go towards a defensive pick for Ryans and target either Texas Tech edge rusher Tyree Wilson or Alabama defensive end Will Anderson.
Confused as to why Houston is the only AFC South team without its intended franchise QB, despite having the opportunity and resources to get one. I’d wonder what situation they are waiting to present itself.
Will Anderson and JSN should be really good pros, though.
https://t.co/ThK1WIYoRv
— B.Scott (@brandonkscott) April 16, 2023
It isn’t even believed that Houston themselves know what they’ll do next week. General manager Nick Caserio said himself that the pick is available for trade and they’re listening to offers at his pre-draft press conference this week.
For Caserio, this messy situation is the latest in a long series of seemingly self-inflicted wounds from the man tasked to lead Houston into a new era.
Two years ago, Caserio traded with New England for tackle Marcus Cannon. The plan was to play him at right tackle opposite of Laremy Tunsil and allow for 2019 draft pick Tytus Howard to slide inside to guard. The experiment was a shockingly predictable failure. Cannon started only four games for Houston that season while Howard struggled to make the transition to guard before being moved back to right tackle at the conclusion of the year.
It was a decision that ultimately setback both the interior line as a whole and the development of Howard. Houston selected Texas A&M guard Kenyon Green 15th overall last season in an ability to accelerate the course selection and he struggled mightily last season. Most recently, they traded for guard Shaq Mason from Tampa Bay. There’s hope that, finally now, the unit can be the strength of the team.
A year ago, Caserio opted to extend receiver Brandin Cooks to one of the most expensive wide receiver contracts in the NFL in yearly value. Cooks at the time said he was on board with the direction of the franchise and ready to be a leader. Unfortunately, it took less than six months for him to demand a trade from the franchise.
Despite a sizable offer on the table from the Dallas Cowboys at that time, Caserio overplayed his hand and was left with Cooks at the deadline. His tune did not change at the conclusion of last season and Houston ultimately sent Cooks to Dallas for a fifth and a sixth round pick.
#Texans are finalizing trade of veteran wide receiver Brandin Cooks to #Cowboys pending a physical and processing compensation, according to league sources. Cooks was nearly traded to #Cowboys at NFL trade deadline, and now he’s headed to Dallas. More @KPRC2
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) March 19, 2023
Now, the latest gaffe Houston faces is Nick Caserio’s roster management at the end of last season. Former coach Lovie Smith was given his full arsenal of players to attempt to win games and that subsequent effort was enough to forfeit the draft right’s to Houston’s preferred choice in this year’s draft.
Entering his third season with the team, Caserio’s tenure has seemingly been defined by these self-inflicted errors and an inability to pull the team out of them afterwards. How the general manager responds to this one could ultimately dictate his future with the team.
Can he find a way to land the Texans a franchise quarterback and a viable path to success in the AFC? A failure to do so could signal another meaningless year for the team and that 2022 rookies such as Derek Stingley and Jalen Pitre won’t see competitive football until the end of their rookie contracts.
A failure to land that position after the kind of season Houston just went through would signal an organizational failure on several layers. A lack of foresight that led to a plan that failed to address the biggest need in today’s league. Nobody would be more responsible than Caserio.
“Now, does that extend into getting their hands in place where Nick Caserio & DeMeco Ryans are running things? I don’t know if they would do that… I’ve heard the building is split on C.J. Stroud. It’s not like there’s no Stroud juice there, there absolutely is.”
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) April 19, 2023
This was supposed to be a simple win-win for Houston at the top of the draft between Young and Stroud. Will the fanbase see a developmental edge rusher like Wilson paired with a lower tier quarterback prospect such as Hendon Hooker instead?
Caserio alone will have to find his way out of this one.