What might a contract look like for the star QB?
There are two contracts looming for the Houston Texans over the next calendar year. They cannot officially give C.J. Stroud or Will Anderson extensions until after the season. Yet, we can imagine what they might look like by looking at current contracts for current stars at those positions. We will begin with Stroud. It seems at quarterback that the Rubicon appears to be 50 million dollars per season in average annual value. If we look at just those players then we can guess a contract.
More importantly than guessing a contract we should probably also ask what those players have in common in terms of performance. Unfortunately, that is putting the cart before the horse. We should begin with the contracts. In addition to AAV, we will also look at total value and average annual value.
Sometimes these tables get truncated. There are eleven quarterbacks there. There is one notable name missing. While Patrick Mahomes has a 450 million dollar contract, there are more than ten seasons on that contract, so his AAV comes in at below 50 million a season. Sure, some of that might be being the first of these guys to sign, but some of that was him leaving money on the table.
Those guys usually come along once in a generation and the Chiefs were able to talk him into taking a huge total sum. Without an adjustment, it will help them afford more pieces around him as the salary cap continues to go up. The rest all seem to be falling within a familiar zone.
To keep us honest throughout this study we will look at not only the mean but also the median. That will help keep us honest in case one or two numbers skew the aggregate some. Before we get to the performance data we should probably take a look at the contract averages according to the mean and median.
Obviously, an ambitious agent will point out that Dak Prescott is at the 60 million plateau but that is because Jerry Jones is an idiot. The rest of these guys all wound up between 51 and 55 million in AAV. So, Stroud will probably end up somewhere between five years and 255 and 5 years 275 million. Of course, the next question is whether he deserves that kind of money.
When we look at these 11 quarterbacks we should probably look at what they have done over the past two seasons. From there we can establish a median and mean like we did with the salary numbers. Finally, we can convert those numbers back into a per 15 game estimate to see what Stroud would have to do to reach their level.
Again, these numbers are fairly tight across the board with the exception of one player. Trevor Lawrence sticks out like a turd in a punch bowl. That is the main thing everyone is after. They want to avoid paying big money to guys that don’t produce like everyone else making big money. Lawrence hasn’t done that so far. The good news is that he hasn’t actually played under THIS contract yet, so he has an opportunity to make good.
This is why we use a median. When we have one guy well under the rest or one guy well beyond the rest then it tends to skew the mean. Either way, we can look at the mean and median and then convert those into a single season sum to see if those numbers are doable for Stroud.
For many, these numbers won’t mean much of anything. After all, these are players that played in between ten to 17 games per season, so it is hard to imagine them within a single season paradigm. Yet, on average, these guys played in 15 games per season. So, if we convert these numbers into per 15 game numbers then we get a good estimate for the kind of player Stroud would need to be to fit within this group.
In other words, it looks like year one was pretty close to what Stroud needs to do to fit within this group. Naturally, there are the other quarterbacks out there not making 50 million per season that play like they make that much. We are talking guys like Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, Matthew Stafford, and Jayden Daniels. We could be looking at guys like Caleb Williams too if things break right for him.
The question is whether this new offense and new players will be enough to help him get there. It also means he needs to get rid of the ball quicker and make some better decisions along the way. These are things we can hope for in year three, with new linemen, and a new offensive coordinator. There are no guarantees. What do you think? Is Stroud good enough to put up these numbers? Would you give him that much money? Let’s hear from you in the comments.