As a back-to-back AFC South champion, Houston entered the 2025 season as the odds-on favorite to rule the division again. While few expected either the Jaguars or Colts to seriously contend, they’re ahead of the Texans heading into Week 14. With the exception of the 1-11 Titans, who may be on their way to a second straight No. 1 overall pick, the AFC South is anyone’s to win with five games remaining.
Jacksonville and Indianapolis, both 8-4, will meet on Sunday with first place on the line. They’ll also square off in Week 17. The Texans (7-5) will go on the road to face the Chiefs (6-6) in something resembling a do-or-die game for the reigning conference champions. Having already beaten the Colts in Indianapolis last Sunday, the Texans will host them in a game that could decide the division or a playoff berth in Week 18. The Texans and Jaguars split their season series. They won’t see each other again unless they match up in the postseason.
The Colts have been atop the division for most of 2025, but they dropped to second place in Week 13. Thanks in part to an unexpected resurgence from quarterback Daniel Jones, a free agent addition who previously flamed out with the Giants, the Colts stormed to a 7-1 start. They held the No. 1 seed in the AFC at that point.
Acquiring star cornerback Sauce Gardner from the Jets before the Nov. 4 deadline was supposed to bolster the Colts’ chances of at least winning the division. They’ve now lost three of four, though, and Gardner could miss multiple weeks with a calf strain, Jones is playing through a fibula injury, meanwhile, and league-leading rusher Jonathan Taylor is coming off back-to-back mediocre showings.
While the shine has come off the Colts in recent weeks, the Jaguars and Texans have surged. Despite losing prized first-round rookie wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter to a season-ending knee injury in early November, the Jaguars have won three in a row. They’ve succeeded despite underwhelming numbers from quarterback Trevor Lawrence and a major downturn in production from second-year receiver Brian Thomas.
The Texans have survived despite a significant injury to C.J. Stroud, who returned last week. The third-year signal-caller missed three full games with a concussion. The Texans went undefeated in that span under backup Davis Mills, who led a dramatic fourth-quarter comeback over the Jags in Week 10.
Mills’ heroics proved crucial against Jacksonville, but the Texans’ top-ranked defense is the main reason they’re still in the race. Winners of seven of nine and four straight, the Texans have a legitimate chance to become the latest team to rally for a playoff berth after starting 0-3. Only six, including the 2018 Texans, have done so since 1979.
Although Indianapolis is reeling while Jacksonville and Houston are trending up, the Colts are still slight favorites to conquer the South, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. At 41%, they’re narrowly edging out the Jaguars (40%) ahead of Sunday’s showdown. The Texans (19%) are a distant third.
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